The CNN-IBN-The Hindu election tracker survey has predicted a hung Lok Sabha for 2014, which is not a surprise. The 10-year UPA rule has been marked by scams and price rise. But whether the NDA can convincingly present itself as a viable alternative is doubtful. A large section of people — not only the minorities but also others in the south and east — will not vote for the NDA if Narendra Modi is projected as the Prime Minister. How many regional parties will support a Modi-led NDA is also doubtful. In a situation where neither the UPA nor the NDA crosses the crucial 200 mark, the possibility of the UPA getting the support of regional parties is higher.
The elections are 11 months away and there is enough time to change the mood of the electorate and shift the balance. The survey shows that there is a large percentage of undecided voters and that is the crux.
The only useful finding is that the UPA is not the favourite. The BJP’s fortunes are on the rise. But the trends are fluid and will change once the election campaign picks up.