Beyond the immediate reaction to the historic EU referendum result, British Prime Minister David Cameron leaves behind a damning longer-term political legacy. The tragedy is that the choice of this pathway stems in large part from his own unwise decisions in office. Thursday’s vote will have potentially massive implications for the longer-term future not just of the EU but also the United Kingdom’s. On the latter front, for instance, the U.K.’s current constitutional settlement will now become further destabilised with the increased likelihood of a second Scottish independence referendum vote, and also the possibility of greater political uncertainty in Northern Ireland.
For those who favour a strong U.K. in a reformed EU, these developments are immensely concerning, and the end result is likely to have ramifications for not just England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but also the rest of the world. A weaker United Kingdom would no longer punch so strongly on the international stage which would also adversely affect its ability to bolster international security and prosperity at a time when both remain fragile. In a doomsday scenario, budgetary cuts forced by the loss of Scotland’s tax base could also impact the U.K.’s sizeable annual overseas aid budget, which promotes massive goodwill abroad. The U.K. is the world’s second largest provider of international aid after the United States, and is one of the few G7 states to adhere to an internationally agreed target of spending 0.7 per cent of GDP on overseas aid. The loss of a Scottish tax base could also lead to further budgetary cuts for the armed forces.
Andrew Hammond,
London
