It’s a testament to the unexpectedness of Theresa May’s call for a snap general election that even in the hour before the announcement, when her office had indicated that the British Prime Minister would be speaking on the steps of Downing Street, many still questioned what the nature of the announcement could be. A general election figured in the speculation, but then as many pointed out online, it was less than a month ago that her official spokesperson had categorically ruled out one till 2020 — at which time an election would have to be held under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act of 2011 (unless a two-thirds majority of the House of Commons allowed otherwise).
Explaining it
Ms. May acknowledged the need for an explanation of this change of heart, saying she had only recently and reluctantly recognised the need for an election to take place before 2020, pegging it on the need to secure unity in Parliament as the country prepared to launch headlong into full-fledged negotiations with its European partners on exiting the union, as well as resetting its relationship with the rest of the world. “We need a general election and we need one now,” she declared on Tuesday.
Her statement rings true for many a reason: while it may have been a U-turn, the need for an election has been palpable in British politics for a while now.
Since taking over as Prime Minister last year, Ms. May has been vulnerable on a number of fronts, not least the fact that she came to her position after other prospective replacements for her predecessor David Cameron dropped out of the race following last June’s referendum. It’s something that critics have thrown at her along the way as she has put herself at the front of the Brexit — a process that has pegged itself on giving control back to the British Parliament and people. It became all the more relevant as the nature of the Brexit planned by the government emerged, revealing that Britain would in all likelihood extract itself from the European single market in order to take control of its borders. This was a far cry from what Mr. Cameron had pegged his 2015 electoral campaign on: keeping Britain in the EU, with which it hoped to renegotiate its relationship. “We are clear about what we want from Europe. We say: yes to the Single Market,” read the Conservatives’ 2015 manifesto.
While her government succeeded in getting its Brexit-authorising legislation un-amended through Parliament, the government’s real battle is yet to begin, with reams of legislation needed domestically to bring about the Brexit process smoothly. With opponents continually questioning whether the Brexit that the government was embarking on was the one that the people of Britain had signed up for, this would have left her and her government particularly vulnerable. Holding — and winning — a general election would do much to help Ms. May tackle those challenges, giving some much-needed authority to the Brexit process.
Coming into her own
It could also help her set her own agenda and further distance herself from that of Mr. Cameron, whose vision of Britain contrasted markedly with her own. Of particular significance to India will be Ms. May’s tougher stance on immigration. As Home Secretary she was responsible for a tightening of immigration rules, and her tenure as Prime Minister has seen her put immigration control — from both within and outside the EU — at the heart of her agenda, despite warnings that it could damage efforts to secure trade deals, including one with India. Efforts by the opposition, the House of Lords, and even some within her own Cabinet to persuade her that international students shouldn’t be included in net migration figures have proved unsuccessful, with Home Secretary Amber Rudd suggesting last year that a further tightening of policy when it came to international students was on the cards.
Under these circumstances it may seem surprising that Ms. May did not announce plans for a general election before, particularly given that a string of recent opinion polls have put her well ahead of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.
A tough fight ahead
However, it will be a gamble too: rarely will a British election have been as ideologically driven as the forthcoming one, pitting Ms. May’s strictly conservative vision of Britain with that of the Labour party, which is led by its most left-wing leader to date, and has, while backing the Brexit, promised to offer an “effective alternative” that involves, among other things, pumping more into the National Health Service and welfare, and raising corporation and individual taxes for the well-off. The Liberal Democrats have committed themselves to keeping Britain in the single market and avoiding the hard Brexit the government has embarked upon. “This election is your chance to change the direction of the country,” said Tim Farron following the announcement of the election.
While Ms. May herself has scored well in polling compared to Mr. Corbyn (a poll last week put her 37 points ahead), other data suggest a level of support for the Labour leader’s policies — including a recent poll by ComRes for The Independent newspaper that found support for raising the minimum wage, and the top rate of tax, and charging a goods and services tax on private schools as Mr. Corbyn has suggested. The revival of the Liberal Democrats’ fortunes will also add to the uncertainty. The party, which saw its parliamentary seats fall from 57 to eight in 2015, has tapped into the anti-Brexit movement that remains a powerful force across the country.
Ms. May would undoubtedly have had Scotland in mind when she opted for the general election. A fall in support for the Scottish National Party (SNP) would undermine its call for a second referendum on independence. While Ms. May has not ruled out a second referendum altogether, she has firmly rejected the SNP’s suggested timeline, insisting that now was not the time for one when Britain should be putting all its energy into securing a good deal. “In terms of Scotland, this move is a huge political miscalculation by the Prime Minister,” declared First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who accused the Prime Minister of putting her party’s interests ahead of the country with the election announcement.
Miscalculation or not, it’s an election that will deliver political credibility to a country desperately in need of it.
vidya.ram@thehindu.co.in
