True to forecasts of what might happen in the event of a split verdict for the 11th Manipur Legislative Assembly , the advantage seems now to be with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Although the last word is still to be said, the BJP, using its clout as the party in power at the Centre, has managed to cobble together a slim majority even though it won less seats than the Congress. In an informal show of strength, the party’s representatives met State Governor Najma Heptulla and claimed the support of 32 MLAs, with a rider that more would be joining its camp — a hint that it would split the Congress and absorb a part of it.
The fluid situation has come about because in the House of 60, the Congress won 28 seats, just three short to return to power for a record fourth term, while the BJP could manage 21 seats, 10 short of the magic number.
Of the remaining 11, four were won by the National People’s Party (NPP), founded by the former Lok Sabha Speaker from Meghalaya, Purno A. Sangma, and now led by his politician son Conrad Sangma, four by the Nagaland-based Naga People’s Front (NPF), one each by Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, and an independent candidate.
By constitutional norms, the Governor would most likely invite the single largest party, the Congress, first to prove its majority. It should have been relatively easy for the Congress to get three more supporters to qualify to form the government, but there is more to this mixed mandate than meets the eye.
Wheels within wheels
The NPF, which won its four seats on the campaign plank of carving out Naga-dominated areas of Manipur to become part of a Greater Nagaland, would not support the Congress which has been vehemently opposed to the idea. The LJP is an ally of the BJP at the Centre. This leaves the NPP, Trinamool Congress and the independent candidate, six MLAs in all, for the Congress to look for support.
However, there is a hitch. Under the stewardship of Assam Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, a former Congress leader who defected to the BJP to ultimately play an important role in pulling down the Tarun Gogoi government in the 2016 Assam Assembly elections, a group called the North-East Democratic Alliance had been formed last year which pledges allegiance to the NDA government. The NPP is a part of this group.
The question was: Would the Manipur unit of this Meghalaya party feel obligated enough to honour this pledge in seeking alliances to form the government in the State? It seems the BJP has managed to convince the party they should. The Congress had the Trinamool which is opposed to the BJP and the independent MLAs to win over, but here too the BJP seems to have sabotaged the prospect. The independent MLA, from the Jiribam constituency on the Assam border, was reportedly abducted by the BJP from Imphal airport after he arrived with a Congress leader. The Trinamool MLA too has reportedly decided to join the BJP. However, even if the Congress got their support, the coalition’s number would be 30, leaving the Assembly in a hopeless tie.
The Congress may be trying to strike a deal with the NPP as a signed letter of support by the NPP produced by the Congress does suggest it did intend to go with the Congress. The NPP is new as it is, but very new in Manipur. Most of its leaders are disgruntled politicians from other established parties.
Speed bumps ahead
Even if a BJP-led coalition does become a reality, it will not be without problems. The NPF has agreed to support the BJP but could also withdraw support if and when the question of a Greater Nagaland returns to the fore. It is also a foregone conclusion that such a scenario would come about sooner than later in the backdrop of the much-hyped but little known Framework Agreement being negotiated between the Union government and the Naga militant organisation, the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah). This is especially so as Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself pledged during the election campaign that no agreement with the NSCN(IM) would be allowed to affect Manipur territory. Probably this is also why the BJP is looking to splinter and absorb a portion of the Congress so that if it does form the next government, it will not be left at the mercy of the NPF.
Again, under the anti-defection law, there is a ceiling on the size of State cabinets. For Manipur this is 12 including the Chief Minister, and accommodating party hopefuls and allies alike will be tough. Therefore, plenty of loyalty auctions, hopefully not too ugly, are to be expected in the next few days before a government is formed.
Since the Congress can only make the majority mark with the NPP support, and the BJP keen to prevent this from happening, the NPP’s price tags as kingmakers would have already soared.
Pradip Phanjoubam is editor, Imphal Free Press and author, ‘The Northeast Question: Conflicts and frontiers’
