The promise of demographic dividend will not last long. Can India take advantage of this demographic window in the next couple of decades and benefit from it?
Much has been said recently about India's demographic dividend: that its working-age (15-59 years) population, as of now, largely consists of youth (15-34 years), and as a result its economy has the potential to grow more quickly than that of many other countries, including China. China, because of its “one-child” policy over the past several decades will soon begin ageing and, as a result, say the demographers, will become less competitive. But can India hope to garner its demographic gift?
Demographic realities
According to the Census of India, while the proportion of population in the under 14 age group declined from 41 per cent in 1961 to 35.3 per cent in 2001 (that is, by 5.7 percentage points), the proportion of population in the age group 15-59 increased from 53.3 per cent to 56.9 per cent (that is, by 3.6 percentage points) during the same period. The proportion of those above 60 years of age also increased from 5.6 per cent to 7.4 per cent (that is, by 1.8 percentage points). In terms of absolute numbers, the increase in the 15-34 age-group population is even more dramatic: from 174.26 million (31.79 per cent) in 1970 to 354.15 million (34.43 per cent) in 2000. The youth segment of the population is projected to peak at 484.86 million in 2030.
This demographic fact has important implications for the labour market. According to official data, India's labour force, which was 472 million in 2006, is expected to be around 526 million in 2011 and 653 million in 2031. It is noteworthy that the growth rate of labour force will continue to be higher than that of the population until 2021. According to the Indian Labour Report, 300 million youth would enter the labour force by 2025, and 25 per cent of the world's workers in the next three years would be Indians.
The United Nations Population Division projections show that, while in absolute numbers the youth segment (15-34 years) of the Indian population tapers off after 2030, as a proportion to the total population it tapers off from 2010 itself. Although this tapering off is marginal (from 35.4 per cent in 2010 to 34.5 per cent in 2020, to 32.4 per cent in 2030) in the next three decades, it will be swift to follow (to 29.7 per cent in 2040, to 26.6 per cent in 2050). Even so, the youth segment of the population will be a massive 441.1 million in 2050.
Since a majority of the youth knock on the doors of the labour market right by the age of 15, the youth segment of the population will also have to be considered in relation to the larger working-age (15-59 years) population. The United Nations Population Division's analysis and projections offer valuable insights on this development. Although the percentage of the 15-34 age group reaches its peak (35.4 per cent) in 2010 and tapers off from then onwards, the percentage of the 15-59 age group reaches its peak (64.6 per cnet) only in 2035, and tapers off gradually over the next 15 years to 61.6 per cent in 2050 (still marginally higher than what it was in 2005, that is, 59.5 per cent).
Educational deficits
Thus the demographic predictions are loud and clear: that the promise of demographic dividend will not last long, in any case beyond 2050. Can India take advantage of this demographic window in the next couple of decades and garner its benefits? One cannot be too optimistic about this trend considering its poor education system from bottom to top. India's literacy rate, after 60 years of independence, is around 63 per cent — China's is 93 per cent. The largest part of India's schools is of poor quality. Teachers are inadequately prepared, weakly motivated, poorly paid, and frequently absent.
The situation in higher education is even more problematic for India's participation in the global knowledge economy. The overall quality of the higher education system is well below global standards and it has shown no significant sign of improving. High-tech employers complain that a large majority of engineering and other graduates are inadequately trained and must be “re-educated,” at considerable expense, by their employers or not hired at all. The large high-tech firms — such as IBM, Infosys and Wipro — have set up their own in-house academies to prepare employees for productive work.
The highly regarded Indian Institutes of Technology and a small number of other Indian world-class institutions produce only a small number of graduates each year. Many of these graduates leave the country for employment or further education immediately after graduation.
The government's plans for expanding and upgrading higher education are inadequate both in size and scope. They are also impractical. For example, the IITs are already short of staff and cannot find the quality of professors that they need. The “protective discrimination” policy in vogue that reserves close to half of teaching positions for members of indigenous tribes, disadvantaged castes, and other groups makes it even less likely that top-quality faculty can be found. Some of the new IITs, now in the planning stage, are located far from metropolitan areas, and convincing well-qualified faculty to relocate there will be difficult if not impossible.
On the quantitative side too, there are problems. India now educates only 10 per cent of the age group in higher education. Dropout rates among that 10 per cent are high. A growing number now attends often low-quality colleges and other institutions that are not funded by the government — some of which are little more than teaching shops and degree mills. Current plans to raise the participation rate to 15 per cent by 2015 — still well under what other emerging economies are now educating — seem inadequate to achieve 15 per cent participation.
India has a serious “infrastructure problem” in education as it does with roads, ports, public transportation, electricity, and so on. Long-term inadequate spending and poor planning will catch up with India's booming economy at some point. In terms of human resource, it is not enough to have lots of young people — these young people need to be properly educated to fully contribute to the new economy. After all, as the Swiss psychologist and psychiatrist, Carl Gustav Jung (1875–1961), expresses: “The wine of youth does not always clear with advancing years; sometimes it grows turbid.”
(Philip G. Altbach is Monan professor of higher education and director of the Center for International Higher Education at Boston College, USA. N. Jayaram is professor, Centre for Research Methodology, Tata Institute of Social Science, Mumbai.)
Keywords: demographics, young India, population and youth, census
I am unable to locate the source to a certain data that you have used:
"According to the Indian Labour Report, 300 million youth would enter
the labour force by 2025, and 25 per cent of the world's workers in the
next three years would be Indians." Which Indian Labour Report is this?
Our ministers are extremely concerened about their income through corruption and invest them for their grandsons' studies abroad. But never ever care about their native citizens. If there's not going to be any strenuous measure to regulate the govt. spending authoritatively in development of infrastructure of schools and colleges, then it will be difficult for future generations like me/us to handle the issue of rotten politics. I think india needs a new mahatma to be born or emerging to effeciently handle.
The very optimistic demographic dividend tells us that with the rapidly aging Chinese population due to its strict one child policy can certainly be a reason by which China over a period of time will lose its competitive edge to us.The projections suggest that by 2030 the dependency ratio i.e(ratio of non- working to working population)shall be 0.50 for China and 0.48 for us.However this optimism ignores a considerable section i.e the women work force ,our women lag far behind their Chinese counterparts. An ILO estimate show that 68.9%of Chinese women in the labour force compared to 34.2% of our women.Thus if we consider the differences in the women work participation rates then in this case Chinese dependency ratio will be 0.89 and that of us will be 1.26 in 2030.This striking difference overrides the potential of demographic dividend in a particular way.This is because a literate urban women by and large prefers to stay at home which in a way leads to underemployment and a poor rural women who cannot afford this and has to work is always under waged. Our society is responsible for this only because gender inequality is neither biological nor natural but is social.The government is been trying to improve this situation by imposing reservations which should be facilitated by the civil society as its in the national interest. Our women by and large should come into the mainstream and the society should help them to do so......
When would we stop rah-rahing about our growing population? I am not sure if I should feel happy about the prediction that in 2028, 25% of the world's working population would be Indians. What is the point if bulk of this number are in low income groups or educated youth who prefer to enjoy their day off instead of voting at the polling booth or bright students who wake up in the dream of living and working in New York, thereby work harder to reach the IITs and IIMs, only to flee? Poverty, Nutrition, Healthcare and Education has been the agenda on several election manifesto in the past. There has not been a single policy in the past few years that has created the impact that we want to see. I was extremely touched to read Azim Premji's gesture of charity and fully support the idea of creating a world class university for teachers. Teaching has to be lucrative, enjoyable and respectful. The teachindia initiative has been extremely successful and has enabled large number of youth to participate in teaching. I hope similar initiatives are triggered towards green energy, agriculture are triggered that engage the youth and create a national movement.
All our political parties are myopic in vision and have very narrow agendas especially the regional one - their line of sight is limited to the state or the caste to which it belongs. The leaders are guided by short term goals and gains and the populace votes again for very short terms gains - if at all it has a bearing. more often than not the vote is given not on basis of issues and achievments but on basis of caste or community or region or religion. With the national parites loosing their influence I do not see an all-india vision and goal anywhere in the politcal spectrum. As thing stand now we will miss this bus also.
This Dividend is a number. India will successfully produce the numbers, which are an advantage on paper. When it comes to qualitatively lifting the output of the average Indian, we have a massive task. There is not even a mindset amongst Indians today, both young and old, on average, to produce anything of quality. We are a quantity country, and will be shunted to the most backward of nations if we do not turn our attention towards quality.
I fully subscribe to Shankar Vankat's prescription for the PM to force his moral authority to get things moving. He is the only hope as he combines integrity and honesty of purpose with a clear grasp of larger issues with a growing economy. He can make a start by forming a brigade of young and like-minded MP's from all parties and empower them into a separate cabinet for action on advancing the inclusive economic development on all its fronts. A trimmed UPA cabinet can be left to look after the governance of home, defence, external affairs, communications and finance.
Despite the Right To Education act being passed, there is very little room for any optimism in the years ahead. The vast majority of Indians who can help have vested interests and do not care about the future of the country and its people. We require educated, well-disciplined people to make sacrifices in aid of their brethren. Funding education, teaching people, contributing to NGOs, etc. Every little helps as long as there is no selfishness that comes in the way at any stage.
Under article 82 of the Indian Constitution, the Delimitation Commission demarcates the boundaries of parliamentary constituencies, at present based on the 2001 census, frozen upto 2026. This, in effect means the parliamentary boundaries are frozen until after the 2031 census when the size of the population of the states will be undergoing vast changes. This arrangement runs counter to the democratic basis that the representation of the states in the Lok Sabha should be in proportion to the size of the population of the state. While there has not been any significant challenge to this arrangement since the 1970's when the Indira Gandhi government introduced this, the potential for strife on this score is great. For instance Tamilnadu which used to send 49 MP's to the Lok Sabha in the early years had it reduced to 39 by the mid seventies and would have been further reduced to two dozen or so but for this quirky provision. Other states with their burgeoning populations may very well consider this arrangement as a democratic deficit at the very core of our political system.
In the Indian context, as common with other countries, the demographic dividend is multifactorial and in the prevailing situation considering education as factor to explain the outcome of demographic potential of a population is definitely a risky proposition. The other dominant factors such as physical capability of a population - the brawn factor the energy yielding capability built on food and nutrition and health have telling impact even on quality of education independent of institutions of learning the quality of education imparted. Less said is better about the demographic dividend for the present about a population which is high on hunger, manutrition and low on healthcare indices than talking about education in isolation from the stark realities of human development indices and general development.
While the article provides an all-India perspective, as education and health are state subjects, It is necessary to have a regional and statewise analysis covering social, political, economic and educational aspects as well. The demographic dividend is a mirage; in fact, what we are faced with, is a demographic nightmare. With changing social trends, with children leaving the parents to look after themselves abandoning the traditional Indian family set-up, the over-65's will be extremely vulnerable with little provision such as pension and healthcare in their closing years. In other parts of the world with their safety network of benefit systems, they may have to roll back the frontiers of state; but, in vast tracts of India, the state barely exists to roll back its frontiers. The southern states have almost reached the replacement rates of reproduction implying a steady or declining size of the population (in Kerala the population size is already shrinking) with potential political, social and economic tensions with other regions. The total Indian population is projected to reach about 1.5 billion in the next half a century or so. The bulk of the additional 500 million are likely to be in the Bhimaru states of the cowbelt who are already suffering from bad governance with poor educational, health and social infrastructure. One shudders to contemplate the consequences flowing from this scenario with the angry young women and angry young men of Naxalbari on the march. As provided under article 280 of the Indian Constitution, the Finance Commission makes recommendations to the President on the devolution of central finances to the States, Municipalities and Panchayats. One of the considerations in arriving at the financial numbers is the population size of the recipients. If a particular state, because of its relatively less inefficient and less ineffective administration, achieves a reduction in the size of its population it gets penalised compared with the even more inefficient and ineffective counterparts in other regions. This will be perceived as inequitable by the penalised segment of the electorate.
As greatly said in the essay demographic dividend will not last long if the same policies are followed by the successive governments. There is a need for awareness among politicians of the country to think of the country.Now the time has come to think of the education system in the country and encourage highly educated people to stay back in the country and serve the mother land rather than going to foreign countries.Lot of younger people available in the country should be utilized,which in turn will develop the country automatically.
India's demographic dividend may peak up by 2030, but it seems doubtful if this advantage can be garnered as a demographic gift.The youth segment of the population is projected to peak at 484.86 million in 2030 but it may taper off within about 15 years.While the numbers seem to be an advantage to India, the poor quality of school, college and post-graduate education takes away the gift from our hands. Poor quality of education inputs, low standard teacher quality with protective discrimination policy in vogue, rampant corruption in almost every walk of life and poor governance are causative factors.
Agriculture sector lost in population paradigm. The article is well argued and rationally built, if you consider the industrial need then institutional education does matter and infrastructure deficiencies creep up. For a country in which more than half of the work force (52%) is employed in agriculture, contributing to 17.1% 1of GDP. Agriculture sector, which needs attention to allocation of water which is inefficient, unsustainable and inequitable. 2.There is no disagreement on properly educated youth to fully contribute to the new economy. When a sector is responsible for employment of 50% of the population, academics should think of focusing on the agriculture sector and training youth for better working conditions and better output in farming.
The most sustainable way to raise living standards is to ensure that per capita GDP goes high. China has this in its sights and is single mindedly focused on that.India on the other hand is making a big mistake in talking about concepts like demographic dividend. This is a big mistake. In fact this will negate whatever growth we achieve because, while total GDP will go higher, per capita GDP will not proportionately go high. India already has enough people (Skilled/Semi-skilled/unskilled) for a big work force. So the focus should not be on educating/training/re-training this workforce for future needs. It should figure to reduce the growth rate of the population. The family planning related successes in Tamilnadu can be a useful model in this regard.
The lead article by Altbach & Jayaram should impress upon our ministry of Human Resources the imperative of providing high quality education from top to bottom at all levels of education. The paucity of good faculty at all levels particularly in schools is a major deterrant to the provision of good quality education. We do have a ready pool of keen youngsters whom we waste year after year. These are the aspirants for the Civil services who qualify in the written final examination but fail to make it in the interviews. It should not be too difficult to enthuse them into taking up teaching by giving them additional training in teaching methods. Currently these youngsters continue to spend time trying to get into the civil services year after year without success. These are all graduates and come from different disciplines and have the potential to become good teachers. The issue however is whether the Government would be willing to invest in these youngsters and make teaching an attractive proposition by providing appropriate placement after training and commensurate remuneration.Will the Ministry of Human resource be willing to take this up?
It makes me sick when I come across any kind of jubilation regarding our growing population, howsoever statistically supported and analysed. It requires no rocket science to realize the fact that India's unsustainable population is the biggest hurdle in eradicating poverty, illiteracy, environmental pollution etc. It has brought our resources under severe stress and compelled more than half of the population to live in subhuman conditions. have these writers ever taken time off their propaganda and visited a railway station at night. They will be delighted to see people in the age group of 15-59 lying everywhere on platforms, waiting halls, overbridges desperately trying to cover themselves in a torn rag. The whole human race seems to be engaged in the battle of 'survival of the fittest'. Please try to realize that before educating the youth they need to be fed. By the time they step into the working age of 15+ they are always at the risk of being driven astray due to hunger and deprivation. Sorry for killing the celebration mood but the figures presented are too far fetched and if they turn into reality India will be inhabitable.
Clearly, Indian government is frittering away the opportunity of capitalizing on the 'Democratic Dividend'. Over the last 3 to 4 years, there has been nothing but spate of 'Not-so-positive' Development news. The recent corruption scandals, snail's pace of infrastructure development, crony capitalism thriving in India are all pointers, that Youth do not have 'future' built on good foundation. Clearly, the Country's moral compass is not pointing 'True North'. The political situation is getting murkier by the day. India is a state in denial and there is no 'Moral' leadership to get the country back on 'moral track'. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh - who seems to have his integrity in tact, can still make a difference by taking a 'tough' stand. He is still the 'Last Man Standing'. If Dr.Singh is not able force his moral authority to set things right, the country could be on a 'downhill' course, as there are no "Upright" leaders in sight in a country of over 1.3 billion people.
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