India will have to learn to live with the new Russian-Pakistani bonhomie, just as Russia has taken India's entanglement with the U.S. in its stride.
Last month's quadripartite summit of Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan hosted by President Dmitry Medvedev at the Black Sea resort, Sochi, must have made South Block strategists sit up. From India's perspective, the main outcome was that Moscow decisively moved to de-hyphenate its relations with Islamabad and New Delhi. Little wonder then, that even three weeks after the summit there has been no reaction from New Delhi.
The focus of the Sochi meeting was on the situation in Afghanistan. But it also provided an opportunity for Moscow to turn a page on its relations with Islamabad. For decades these relations had been poisoned, first by Pakistan siding with the United States in the Cold War against the Soviet Union, then by its providing the stage for Mujahideen operations against the Soviet forces in Afghanistan and later by providing the training ground for Chechen rebels. Even after Moscow overcame its bitter memories of the past, relations with Islamabad remained low key. President Pervez Musharraf's visit to Moscow in 2003, first by a Pakistan leader in 33 years, helped to clear the air but failed to break the ice. Russia-Pakistan relations continued to be defined by Moscow's ties with India.
Sochi was a turning point. Mr. Medvedev's bilateral meeting with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari on the sidelines of the summit was marked by uncharacteristic warmth. Noting that “unlike in the past,” he and Mr. Zardari established “very regular, frequent contacts,” and were engaged in “good political dialogue,” Mr. Medvedev called for the two countries “to expand our economic ties too.” He lamented that Russia and Pakistan “have not made much progress in this area yet,” and suggested that the two leaders look at “opportunities for our bilateral economic cooperation and development” as well as “possibilities of working together in a four-party format.”
Mr. Medvedev invited Mr. Zardari to pay an official visit to Russia, while the Pakistani leader extended a similar invitation to his host. Mr. Zardari pointedly noted that it was his fourth meeting with Mr. Medvedev — an unprecedented intensity of interaction, even though all four meetings were held on the sidelines of multilateral events. Next on the agenda is a stand-alone summit. According to Mr. Medvedev's foreign policy aide Sergei Prikhodko, “We are interested in a full-scale visit by the Pakistani President to Russia.”
In another breakthrough for Pakistan, Mr. Medvedev in Sochi gave the green signal for an inaugural meeting of the Russian-Pakistani Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade and Economic and Scientific-Technological Cooperation in Islamabad this month. The two countries agreed to set up the joint commission 10 years ago but Moscow has, till now, blocked its launch.
Two conclusions
Two main conclusions can be drawn from the Medvedev-Zardari meeting: the Russian-Pakistani dialogue has, for the first time, been promoted to the level of Presidents; and Moscow has overcome its reluctance to develop full-fledged relations with Islamabad. The only taboo for Russia still is sale of weapons to Pakistan but its defence technologies have been trickling into Pakistan, mostly through third countries. Ukrainian main battle tanks, T-80, supplied to Pakistan in the 1990s, had Russian-built key systems and components. Following a “private” visit to Russia by Gen. Musharraf and an official visit by army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani last summer, Russia lifted its objections to the supply to Pakistan of Chinese JF-17 fighter planes powered by Russian RD-93 engines. Many years ago, Russia had sold Pakistan over 40 MI-171 transport helicopters of a non-military version.
What has made the Moscow turnaround is the realisation that seeing Islamabad as part of the region's problems does not help to advance the Russian goal of playing a bigger role in the region. The Kremlin finally decided that Pakistan must be part of the solution. The format of four-way cooperation with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan should help Moscow prepare for the eventual pullback of the U.S.-led forces from Afghanistan: engage Pakistan, return to Afghanistan and tighten Russian hold over the former Soviet Central Asia.
Russia has assiduously been building the new format over the past year. Mr. Medvedev first met the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan in Yekaterinburg last summer on the sidelines of an annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. At their second meeting in Dushanbe, the trilateral format was expanded to the quadripartite configuration incorporating Tajikistan, which has by far the longest border — 1,200 km — with Afghanistan among the former Soviet states.
In Sochi, the new forum, which Mr. Medvedev described as “a working regional format,” was institutionalised as a permanent arrangement, independent of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a defence bloc of former Soviet states focussed on Central Asia. The quartet announced that its next summit would take place in Dushanbe and that the foreign and economic ministers of the four countries would hold regular meetings as well.
A joint statement adopted in Sochi highlighted the problems of terrorism and drug-trafficking, which are a source of profound concern for Russia. However, it is joint economic projects that dominated the summit agenda. Russia agreed to join two long-planned regional infrastructure projects that would create energy and transport corridors from Central Asia to Pakistan across Afghanistan.
One project, CASA-1000 (Central Asia-South Asia), involves the export of electricity from power-rich Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Russia is prepared to help to build two hydropower plants in the Central Asian states that will supply electricity for the project. The World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) earlier agreed to finance the construction of power lines to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The other project is a motor road and a railway from Tajikistan to Pakistan across the Wakhan corridor in extreme northeast Afghanistan — a buffer the British created at the end of the 19th century between the Russian and British empires. The proposed transport link resurrecting the ancient Silk Road would be a strategic gain for the countries involved. Pakistan will receive direct access to the markets of Central Asia and Russia, while Tajikistan — and Russia — will get access to Pakistani ports. China will also stand to gain, as the road is likely to be linked with the Karakorum Highway connecting Pakistan with China's Xinjiang region.
“Russia may become a donor of economic, social and military-political security for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan,” Chairman of the Russian Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee Konstantin Kosachev said commenting on the Sochi summit. In Sochi, Mr. Medvedev renewed Russia's offer to rebuild about 140 industrial and infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, which the Soviet Union set up during its 10-year military intervention. The deals may be worth over $1 billion, and may entail further Russian investments in Afghanistan's oil, gas and minerals. Russia's comeback will also encourage many of the 2,00,000 Soviet-educated Afghans, who fled the Taliban to Russia, to return to their homeland.
Military involvement
Putting behind it the painful experience of the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan, Moscow indicated the willingness to become militarily involved in Afghanistan. Mr. Medvedev told President Hamid Karzai that Russia was ready to supply Mi-17 helicopters and firearms, and help to train more Afghan police. The U.S., which is crafting an exit strategy in Afghanistan, welcomed Russia's new role in the region.
The Barack Obama administration has “a regional strategy for both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Russia can play an important role along with other countries in the region,” Assistant Secretary of State Philip J. Crowley was quoted as saying in a comment on the Sochi summit. Russia is giving considerable support to the U.S. in Afghanistan in line with the broader “reset” in their bilateral ties, but Washington of course is overly presumptuous to think that Moscow will toe its “strategy” in the region, assuming, of course, that the White House has one.
India could theoretically gain from joint economic projects mooted by Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Some Russian analysts have even suggested that Russia might try to incorporate India in the new alliance. This possibility, however, looks highly remote given the current state of relations between New Delhi and Islamabad. Pakistan has dug in its feet on allowing Indian exports through its territory under the recently concluded Afghanistan-Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement (APTTA). Meanwhile, the APTTA grants Pakistan the right to trade with Central Asia via the Wakhan corridor. Unless New Delhi succeeds in turning around its relations with Islamabad, it will stand to lose in a big way when a new transport corridor links Pakistan with Central Asia.
The Sochi summit also dimmed India's hopes of gaining a strategic foothold in Tajikistan. India and Russia had planned to jointly use the Ayni airfield, which India helped to renovate, but Indian presence there looks doubtful now in the context of the emerging Russia-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Tajikistan axis. India will, of course, remain Russia's close friend and strategic partner, but it will have to learn to live with the new Russian-Pakistani bonhomie, just as Russia has taken in its stride India's entanglement with the U.S.
Comments:
The final sentence -- "....it will have to learn to live with the new Russian-Pakistani bonhomie, just as Russia has taken in its stride India's entanglement with the U.S.". Pakistan's friendship with the Russians is bonhomie, while India's friendship with the U.S is "entanglement". Mr Radyuhin forgets that the U.S.S.R broke up two decades ago and with it, the attached arrogance. India has choices now.
Ofcourse India needs to come in terms with the new found relationship between Russia and Pakistan, but I do not agree with the author idea of drawing a parallel between Indio-US relations with Pak-Russia relation. The Pak-Russia relationship is much smaller in dimension and scope in terms of trade, defence and economic scenarios compared to the Indo-US entanglement. At the same time India's defence sector has suffered too much due to Russia's attitude and cheap quality.
We need to learn to operate in different environments. Alliances, formal and informal, are now becoming flexible. With a variety fo itnerests and with th neighbouring nations forging all sorts of alliances and some foreign poers trying to fish in the troubled waters, there is need alwys to play the great diplomatic game,. We need to develop leaders who an grasp the opoportunities and conceive a short ter and long term plan for th antion. We lack these human resources at the apex now.
Interesting stuff...Russia-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Tajikistan axis!!!India should not worry at all. Its like USA-Iran-North Korea axis....In other words a pipe dream. Even if the governments tries it, I have full faith in the people of Pakistan and Afghanistan to fight each other to death. India should actually encourage it just to bamboozle the Pakis. Pakistani will get so paranoid by the Indian support that they will themselves run from it. As far as Russia is concerned, they should try to sell some of their equipment to Afghanistan as well, just so India doesnt have to buy it all from them and can expand their supply to Europe and USA. Its all good....Really
Vlad. is absolutely spot on! We have arrived at a seminal point in geostrategic time. Sands of Central Asia have shifted from beneath the south block mandarins. They were first shell-shocked by the twists in Obama's new AFPAK strategy which pegged Pakistan squarely as the cornerstone of its Central Asia strategy and tripled its AID. Then China upped the ante by building reactors, dams, ports, baltistan motorways and high-speed rail to be followed by oil/gas pipelines and refineries. NATO is embracing Pakistan for its large, powerful military. EU is planning to make Pakistan a key trade partner. Iran is solidifying her relations with pakistan with pipelines. And now finally Russia has jumped into the fray and offered Pakistan economic friendship. As Pakistan begins to leverage its monopoly on the crossroads of global energy and trade routes, her stature will be enhanced vis-a-vis its neighborhood. This leaves India as the only remaining global power without any say.
The policy to isolate Pakistan by south block stands failed.
The plan to get Pak labeled "terrorist" has failed beyond Mr Cameron.
The 63 year-old policy of unending hostility towards pak in the vain hope that it will cause her to economically collapse, ethnically disintegrate, militarily be defeated and leave India unrivaled geostrategic player has FAILED!!!!!! Now it is time for south block to rethink its Pakistan policy. Pakistan wants only one thing and that is the kashmir Valley. Does south block have the courage to engage in a give and take with Pakistan to secure India's economic pre-eminence in the vast region of Central Asia? The alternative does not bode well!!
This will be the biggest success or fall for south block mandarins after nuclear deal.
I might add; had Nehru not dragged India into Kashmir civil war, it is more than likely that India would have been a cultural big brother to pakistan today instead of China or US or Russia- enjoying the fruits of her geostrategic sagacity and enhancing India's global stature.
While countries around us including Russia and China build and strengther their international relations with regional organisations such as Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, ASEAN etc., Indian diplomacy is failing even to keep alive SAARC!
Glimpse of Ind0-pak peace;
Great review revealing the potential of indo-pak peace. Pakistan really controls the crtical trades roots out of India.Sooner than later i expect India to bend and go for a peace of heart. India cannot afford an ecnomic stagnation with closed excess to west and central asia by road. Great hopes for peacelovers for sure.
Not only the Russia-Paksitan ties should cause us concern but the China's recent initiatives in the region would also need closer look. Buoyed up by the sucess of its easter-seaboard SEZs, China is creating more SEZ in the otehre regions; one of them is to be set up in the troubeld Zinjiang region at Kasgar. This will not only accelrate the development of Xinjiang but in the estimate of Chia would help it acheive closer ties with the Cental Asian states and use the silk road to tap the market in Afghanistan. View this in the contex ot ftheir alreayd being invited to be present with their forces in POK, the developemtns in our north should worry us. What is the government going to do to reshape our policies almly to meet the emerging situation?
Well Russia has its own interests and India has its own. Besides defense cooperation, India and Russia has no cooperation on other political issues. Look at climate issue, security council expansion etc., on which these two old friends do not agree. I hope they continue to engage in defense cooperation as it benefits both. India probably would not object to any country's ties with Pakistan as long as it is not focused on selling weapons, which are aimed at India, to Pakistan. Besides the trade to West Asia by road is a mistake. It is much better than by sea. Loosing Central Asia is indeed bad for India, however there is too much potential for Indian business interest elsewhere and India has to focus on other important strategic points rather than Central Asia, which is a volatile region anyway.
Time for policy in change. India simply cannot afford to lose a great strategic partner like that of Russia. Balance is necessary in maintaining ties from both Russia and USA.
India cannot trust pakistan or china. Even though we try to bargain with pakistan keeping in mind central asia, we are inviting catastrophe. Pakistan is a volatile state like wise most of the central asia. Yes we are bound to lose business opportunities in central asia, but we can not afford the human life, which we will be risking by bargaining with pakistan. It will not allow any goods transfer from their soil, because their main intention is to inflict india.
Manmohan Singh is failing big time, he is selling India to US and we are becoming junior pet of USA. We should save our time tested ally Russia from going away from us.
We should make a alliance of India, Russia, Iran, Brazil and France. After that we don't need anything.
We should have good relations with USA too but not at the cost or friends or risk of loosing them.
Another angle is that if Shia majority Iran gets the pie with Russia, Pak, China alliance the Sunni lobby will ruin it under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, UAE etc.
Pakistan is controlling impt trade routes to south Asia
while as India has got trapped between China and Pakistan.
Pakistan is increasing its relations with South block while India is only focusing on US.
It is right time for India to solve Kashmir dispute and other issues with Pakistan otherwise India can face an economic Stagnation.
Pakistan ,pakistan, pakistan- everywhere... a fanatically failed state and still it's in news all the time along with biggies like the US and China and Russia... it's the geographic location that works all the time for this bewildered nation... geostrategic interests of all major economies pass through this land and that's what this nation's living on... but it's days are numbered... once the world runs out of wars and of oil, we will have to look hard for 'pakistan' on the world map.
String of Pearls, Russian Quadruple, Iranian loss, APTTA and recent reports of Chinese over activism in POK are demonstrating nothing but the instances of failure of Indian diplomacy with widespread strategic implications. The nation is told of one view, mostly through media, and our representatives present completely different picture at international forums. Its high time we start reciprocating in substantial terms to the trust shown by our time trusted friends. And if we really want to maintain the non aligned stance it should better be reflected in our policies.
A balance of security and economic benefits must be made if India wants its say to exist in the New Great Game.
I THINK CHINA IS TRYING TO PUSH RUSSIA IN TO A DEEP PIT,after the collapse of soviet union russia lost its confidence,now china is trying to control russia,i think its one of the chinese plan to entangle russia in to the web,bring pakistan in to the SCO and keep india out of SCO.if pak became a SCO member india will leave SCO.it will help china to dominate SCO.it will also dominate russia.china had already started dominating russia.pakistan may be a weapon(jihad,suicide bombing,terror attack)against india,but they are good for anything else.russia must be careful when it comes to have relationship with some of the chinese close friends like pakistan,sudan,somalia,north korea etc
Afghanistan as a failed narco - state and Pakistan with growing influence of Islamic radicals would be bad news for Russia. Since USA look for exit door, they have to do something or be left with horrible mess in own back yard. But Pakistan will for decades be less favored then either India or Iran. Don't count of close, cordial relations any time soon.
As for relations between Russia and India, they should be even better then between USSR and India during Cold War. Since Russia adopted democracy and capitalism, there is no more ideological pressure and Russia alone cannot be threat to India. In the matter of fact, two countries cannot find reason for serious dispute even if they try.
True. There is no permanent friend and enemy in politics. While Russia may have its own interests in engaging Pakistan e.g. encourage Pakistan to stop Chechen terrorists base their in PoK and NWFP. And this India understands very well and that is why India didn't complain regarding this. This will, I think, will strengthen India-Russia relationship further.
Pakistan, on the other hand, will be quick to grab the offer as they are getting it from India's anchor partner in defense. And it cannot be denied that India may have been working behind the scenes to ensure with firm resistance that Russia won't supply weapons, which can be aimed against India while flexibly accommodating economic and some strategic interests of Russia.
Obviously, friendship with Pakistan cannot be at the cost of India.India is advancing technologically and is way ahead of Pakistan and in some time may achieve total self reliance vis-a-vis IT, bio tech, Pharma and many others from which Russia may be benefited a lot.And also Russia can immensely help India achieve targets in space and defense technologies.
These little deviation in policies gives completeness and strength to to relationship.
I believe that Russia and India are wise enough to strengthen long term strategic partnership.
Russia is not our enemy.India can move with good intention to strengthen frendly relation with Russia.india also can find ways to keep Russia entangled in trade and economy.After recession it is trade and economy which get mmuch importance and for that peaceful and freindly relations are essential.Keeping aside terrorism and its indefinite concluding stories time must not be stretched nor wasted. Whenever and wherever scope for trade gets chance to materialise Indiamst tie its relation ,even with Pakistan.
There is no need for India to panic, infact far from it. Russia is trying to reset relation with everyone which includes Pakistan and India. Russia will remain our friend and we hope Pakistan is able to extract some good from this new relationship. India never wanted Pakistan to fail. India only retaliates to state terrorism emanating from Pakistan.
Regarding geopolitics, what India gets from access to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and those other middle size countries. India has a direct access to Africa, America, Europe, China, Japan, Australia, and middle east. India can do without those 10-12 small states around Russia. World is too big. It is the business India wants, not the strategic depth.
Does Pakistan thinks it can get to the higher table by playing geopolitical game only? If so good for them.
Russia's major problem with India and otherwise is arrogance, its attitude of trying to extract as much from a deal. It is important to note India gets nothing major in Oil and Gas shipments. USA buys our IT, pharma, diamond -- what does Russia buys from us? So the point is: Does Russia want to continue the policy of arrogance or is it going to be a rational partner?
May be it is a time to move on. Russia should do whatever makes it happy, and not be a prisoner of the past.
Great! Two failed states shake hands and there is talk of India getting "entangled" with the USA? Where? How? All the prosperity of Russia is concentrated in Moscow and controlled by the mafia to a large extent. Pakistan is a fraudulent bunch of crooks, getting caught at every level. The less we have to do with both the established irritant and the emerging shenanigan, the better for India. Pakistan is forever begging for aid and assistance, but they are too proud to accept India's humanitarian assistance when they get hit by a calamity. Should India even acknowledge a Pakistan?
New equations are making India to learn more ways to deal with the situation. Pakistan has become a bad word among the world community and people want to change the name. Each province in pakistan wants their own country, and also small group of Shia's , and mahajir's Can't live in that socity. Why India cannot help them to relize their dream and to make the regine more prousporus.
The world has moved on, while I am surprised at some of the posts, still mired in ancient hostility and ill-will, you will be surprised that in Pakistan, 95% people have gotten over their hostility towards India, and have just moved on.
Please catch up!
There are catches in the new alliance which is worth noticing. Pakistan cannot arm-twist any nation other than India to provide access to the trade routes to central Asia. So I am not sure in what way and how much Pakistan will get benefited economically. It is upto Pakistan to remain included or left out as others wont care much. Most of the other nations will however try to contain Pakistani government fearing troubles from rogue elements in their projects just in case.
Once the trade routes are operational, central Asian nations will be very much interested in access to the Indian markets. So international pressure will always exist on Pakistan to improve ties with India.
India can try access to central asia with the help of China with which India has much better terms than Pakistan. Karakoram Pass/Aksai chin could be used for that. Otherwise, India can make up for the loss of business opportunity by trying elsehwere or invest in technology innovation that would make cost of transported goods in central asia cheaper even if they are sent across using other routes.
These developments do indicate that Nehru did a mistake by allowing Northern parts of kashmir with Pakistan. Had PoK been with India, story would have been different. In future, to avoid repeat of such mistakes, GoI must invest in pool of intellectuals with expertise in modern foreign relations.
@ Marco; Wow that's a nice dream you are having about Pakistan as centre stage of the world. Do you want me to wake you up? I am afraid Pakistan is on centre stage for one reason only and that is as the perpetrators and producers of Terrorism throughout the world. If Russia and China want to pour billions into that nation so be it for they will not see much in terms of return on their investment. The Pakistani people are being fed useless propaganda on a daily basis about India and the West through and as a result you are witnessing ill educated low skilled and a poverty stricken work force.
Russia Pakistan improved relation could be a gift in disguise for India.
The trust deficit between India and Pakistan is so high that a direct Indo-Pak dialouge hardly yields anything substantial. In this scenario if Pakistan's relations improves with a country which is a strong ally of India, then New Delhi should support this move as this channel could later be exploited to build trust with its neighbour.
Hope Pakistan's ties with all these central asia treaty and with Russia bring prosperity to its people and their Govt has something else in their agenda than just to target India.
Nothing else is bad for India than a failing Pakistan state.
We should not forget that our prosperity depends on that of our neighbours'. We cannot live happily if our neighbourhood is on fire. In the absence of the Pakistani army (American aid of-course) Taliban would have overtaken Pakistan and that would have been hellish for us.
Well,it doesn't matter whether what is the relations between other nations,India should always try to maintain good relations with everyone.But at the same time,a couple of days ago our honourable External affairs minister has made it clear to Pakistan that NORTH KASHMIR (POK) is a territory of India.India should quickly take military action in NORTH KASHMIR (POK) and take control of its territory.At the same time A resolution has been passed in Indian parliament on North Kashmir(POK).This clearly indicates Its an integral part of India.
India should not forget its oldest friend, Russia, for USA, for which it will suffer in the futur by the growing relationship between Russia, Pakistan and chaina.