In the months since the Mumbai attack, every high-level meeting between India and Pakistan has been throwing up one as a winner and the other as a loser.
It's practically a tradition to see India-Pakistan relations as a zero-sum game — if it is good for Pakistan, it must be bad for India and vice versa. Or so it seems to many on both sides of the border. But when all is said and done, is it really so?
In the months since the Mumbai attack, when regular dialogue has been suspended, every high-level meeting has been seen through that zero-sum prism, throwing up one as a winner and the other as a loser every time: If Yekaterinburg saw a snub for Pakistan when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh gave President Asif Ali Zardari a “dressing down” on terror, Sharm el-Sheikh put India on back foot after Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani slipped a reference to Balochistan past Dr. Singh. If India works on blocking China's nuclear deal with Pakistan, Islamabad feels satisfied that New Delhi has been blocked on gaining influence in Afghanistan.
The last two months have seen some change in that narrative — starting with Thimphu, where Dr. Singh and Mr. Gilani decided to make a fresh start — no scoring points ahead of their meeting, and briefings to the press after that were coordinated in content. In June, that change in strategy was more visible, first in meetings between the Foreign Secretaries, and then as Home Minister P. Chidambaram travelled to Islamabad and met the Pakistani leadership. His line was firm, sticking mainly to the agenda of more Pakistani action in the Mumbai attacks case, but he got assurances from Interior Minister Rehman Malik — from publicly agreeing to hand over voice samples of the 26/11 accused, to going after more suspects, and to “reconsidering the case against LeT founder Hafiz Saeed in the light of new evidence shared.” Officials say the new avowal to act came after Mr. Chidambaram shared details of American LeT operative David Headley where he spoke of his meetings with Saeed.
Biggest shift
Perhaps the biggest shift on the part of Islamabad was accepting the centrality of action in the Mumbai attacks case to future relations between the countries. In the past, the responses of Pakistani leaders to India's pleas on the 26/11 investigation were helplessness (“We face a Mumbai-type attack everyday”), side-stepping (“Let's talk about the water problem too”) and even counter-attack (“the dossier on Balochistan”).
“Pakistan is coming out of denial,” Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi told CNN-IBN last week, “People here no longer see groups like the Taliban as friends.”
Dr. Singh's efforts to move away from the zero-sum game may be a small part of the reason for that shift. Pakistan's internal pressures are the bigger part. The attacks of the past few months have triggered a backlash among ordinary Pakistanis not seen in the past. The first reason has been the nature and target of the attacks — the massacre of minorities at their place of worship.
While the killing of 94 Ahmediyas in prayer may have evoked a mute response, the suicide bombing at Datta Darbar, the shrine of the revered Sufi saint Hazrat Ali Hajveri, that killed 41 devotees some weeks later brought thousands out on the streets in protest. Shops shut down in cities across the country to mark the people's outrage. Interestingly, the target of the protests has been the Punjab government, not the federal government.
According to analysts based in Pakistan, this was not just outrage at the government's failure to maintain law and order, this was anger against the State government run by the PML-N's Shahbaz Sharif for its perceived support to extremist groups. It was Mr. Sharif who last year pleaded with the Taliban not to attack targets in Punjab because they were “of the same ideology.” It was his Law Minister, Rana Sanaullah, who campaigned along with leaders of the anti-Shi'a radical group SSP, and his government that admitted to giving grants of Rs.8.2 crore to Hafiz Saeed's Jamaat-ud Dawa last year. Most notably in the protests, it was the clerics of the Sunni Ittehaad Council themselves who demanded that the government stop funding Saeed's outfit. The demand also points to the widening rift between Pakistan's original and majority Barelvi ‘Sufi-ist' followers and Wahabi Deobandis like Saeed, who not only rants against India but also targets Ahmediyas, Sufis and Shi'as in his speeches.
For India, the ISI's backing for Saeed continues to be the main concern, but internally now it is the provincial government's ties to the Punjabi Taliban that are taking the spotlight. The Sharifs, particularly Mian Nawaz Sharif, are known to be fervent followers of the Tablighi Jamaat — the all-powerful sect that provides inspiration to jihadi groups — especially those based in Punjab. The small town of Raiwind on Lahore's outskirts houses the world headquarters of the Tablighi Jamaat, as well as, interestingly, the Sharifs' own sprawling estate. It was at this Tablighi centre that the men arrested for carrying out the Ahmedi mosque massacres stayed and, according to reports, police captured a large stash of arms from another Raiwind hideout some days ago.
The other reason for the vocal backlash in Pakistan has been anguish over the profiles of those behind the most brutal terror acts — the world sat up when it emerged that the Times Square wannabe bomber was the son of a retired Air Vice-Marshal, that Headley had a half-brother in Prime Minister Gilani's office, and that in so many attacks terror recruits were drawn from Pakistan's upper middle class and elite. The men arrested for brutally gunning down 40 people including 17 children, mainly families of army officers at Rawalpindi's Parade Lane mosque in December 2009, fit into this growing statistic — while one was the son of a government officer in Islamabad, the other's father was a journalist. They were indoctrinated, say police, not at camps in PoK or Waziristan, but on the Internet, through promotional videos, and even at Dars or Koranic lectures that are so commonly held in drawing-rooms across Pakistan's big cities. Among the suspects in the parade ground attack were a former Foreign Service officer and two women who conducted such Dars, and also allegedly helped with logistics for the attack.
The revulsion over what one editorial refers to as ‘Pakistan's creeping coup' by the Taliban could be India's most effective ally as it renews its dialogue with Pakistan while keeping concerns over terror at the forefront. After meeting Mr. Chidambaram last week, Mr. Malik, who is increasingly targeting the Punjab government for its lack of action against extremist groups, said in interviews: “We know that the Taliban's aim is to overrun Pakistan in order to attack India. We also have intelligence that groups behind the Mumbai attack continue to plan to send India and Pakistan to war.”
As India waits for Mr. Malik and other members of Pakistan's government to make good on their latest promises on the 26/11 investigation and External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna heads there for another round of talks, the zero-sum game should be put on hold — as eventually, it is only in Islamabad's realisation that working against the LeT and other anti-India groups is in its own best interests that would change the discourse from its unproductive past. A realisation on both sides that what is diabolical for India cannot possibly do any good for Pakistan, and vice versa.
(Suhasini Haidar is the Deputy Foreign Editor, CNN-IBN.)
Comments:
The on again off again talks between Pakistan and India will go nowhere. As an observer had said at the time when Gen. Musharraf had visited India the first time, "India has never, never conducted win-win talks of real significance with any of its neighbours, whether it was Nepal, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka." There always was a sting in the tail.
Even with China, Nehru said in a press meet, "Indian Army has been ordered to throw the Chinese beyond the Thagla Ridge," instead of negotiating. Indeed Neville Maxwell has said in his book 'India's China War,' Nehru had insisted on drawing the Macmahon line to the north (if you please) of where Macmahon had unilaterally done!!
The whole sharade of these talks is happening at American instigation which is fated to wear out. Pakistan is now more interested in Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey and Central Asian region, in tandem with China. Enough of SAARC, thank you.
Sultan Geelani
A very rational opinion, well articulated by Suhasini Haider.
But the problem is, Pakistan is an irrational state. Its policies towards India, which are harmful to Pakistan itself, are of no consequence to the forces that rule Pakistan, that is, army and ISI.
So I would like to know how do you deal with a self destructive neighbour ?
The ever increasing attacks inside PAKISTAN of the magnitude or even more than that of MUMBAI in cities like LAHORE&PESHAWAR in increasing frequency&ferocity should shake and wake up the Paki civil&military leadership.
For many Indians, skepticism still lurks heavily in the air about these talks and their so-called results. I hope, this time, Pakistan is truly trying to do something about the terror camps running in the country and not making empty promises as is usually observed in hindsight; for it is definitely in the common interest of both the countries to leave all baggage behind and concentrate on the good of their people.
Your view to keep the process of dialogue on is laudable. Really there is no choice, but to talk. Between the visits by our Home and External affairs ministers, Pakistan has also upped its ante. Its President has visited China, earlier in the month and now our FS met his Holiness, The Dalai Lama. If stone pelting incidents is akin to throwing pebbles in the water body , then , everything is fine ,normal proceeding towards logical aim of good bilateral relations. But when your COAS says good work is being frittered away the local administration, we all know that State govt, with its political compulsions , as one of the reasons, cannot take on the might of the neighbouring country’s moves to destabilise , with resources at its disposal. China and India need to sort out matters whether one likes it or not.
It's going to be about two years and no action taken by Pakistani government. I ask myself what India gonna gain with having any diplomatic relation with Pakistan?
India's media, govt., politicians & people blame Pak for everthing. Whether its sports, politics, defense, foreign policy or whatever, Indians do not miss any chance to target Pak. It will take generations for Indians to get over 1947 partition. Pak needs to freeze its relationship with India. The signs are Pak is increasingly looking toward central Asia and getting very close to China for its economic and political direction. With Nato and US withdrawl expected from Afghanistan in coming 12-24 months, it seems Pak's plan makes a lot of sense.
"Partition over my dead body" said Mahatma Gandhi. Partition is never a solution. On the contrary, it will create 2 belligerent neighbours in perpetual conflict with each other, said Mowlana Abul Kalam Azad. If we look at the balance sheet after the partition, we wonder how prophetic their words were and what a Himalayan blunder Nehru committed by agreeing to partition.
India has never been serious to resolve issues with Pakistan. It creates hype before the International community that we are serious but at the end India back out from its promises. Its policy towards its neighboring countries has always been hostile. Pakistan knows how to depend itself and it is your absurd opinion that Pakistan will be a self-destructive neighbour. If Indian policy towards its neighbour remain the same, the time will come that a united block against India would naturally emerge. India is so much narrow minded that it did not tolerate to allow Pakistani Cricketers to play like IPL etc. But inspite of that The indian girls still love Pakistani cricketrs the recent mariage of shoaib Malik and Sania Mirza. Even Diya Mirza is best friend of Shoaib Akhtar. Let us us be a good friend and good neighbours and give a message of peace to our nations.