How does India propose to get back into the game of realignments beginning to unfold in and around Afghanistan?
Iran's recent hyper-activism in neighbouring Afghanistan and Pakistan has caused considerable consternation in large parts of the globe. In media circles, think-tanks and world chanceries, high-browed mandarins and their well-healed affiliates are trying to make sense of the latest, seemingly inscrutable piece of the Persian puzzle.
Yet Iran's deft moves in an area that the Persians have known well for thousands of years originate from deeply deliberated and well-grounded fundamentals. Ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution, Iran has been ceaselessly battling the threat of a direct American attack or an invasion by a third country that is backed by the United States. The Iraq war of 2003 brought the American forces in an eyeball-to-eyeball face-off along Iran's western borders, while the entry of the U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan became a potential cross-border threat to Iran from the east.
Since 2003, the Iranians have been seeking the exit of American forces from Iraq and Afghanistan. Some of their aspirations have a good chance of realisation, as the bulk of the forces are slated to leave Iraq next year. The U.S. exit from Afghanistan could begin in July 2011.
While the exit of foreign forces would mark a substantial advance, the Iranians have been looking further ahead to a post-exit scenario, in anticipation of a political vacuum that is likely to emerge once the American troops depart. Viscerally opposed to any repositioning by extra-regional players , Iran is working vigorously to establish a de facto alliance of regional countries that will dominate the geopolitical arena stretching from Turkey in the west to China in the east.
It is in this larger context of regionalising the geopolitical space that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad set foot on Afghan soil on March 10. Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai — who fought running battles with the Americans who were more inclined to favour his rival Abdullah Abdullah during the recent Afghan elections — received the Iranian President warmly. Like the Iranians, Mr. Karzai has concluded that the Americans are tiring in Afghanistan and that the time has come to explore deeper alignments in an alternative camp that includes Iran, and has China, Pakistan, Central Asian republics and Russia as potential allies.
While engaging the Afghans on a new footing, the Iranians have also begun to cultivate Pakistan. A major shift in the contours of their relationship can be traced to October 2009, when the Pakistan-based Jundallah group, led by Abdolmalek Rigi, killed Nour-Ali Shoushtari, and other senior commanders of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). Incensed by these high-profile assassinations, in the Pishin area of the Sistan-Balochistan province, the Iranians sent a few days later their Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar to Islamabad, with the demand for Rigi's handover. Subsequently, Rigi was nabbed in a dramatic fashion when the Iranians forced a Kyrgyzstan airlines plane in which he was travelling from Dubai to Bishkek, to land in the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas. Influential voices in Pakistan say that Islamabad gave the vital tip off that led to Rigi's arrest. The Iranians, however, insist that the arrest was possible on account of their meticulous intelligence work, without any foreign involvement whatsoever.
Since the 2009-10 winter war in Gaza, during which Turkey openly distanced itself from Israel, the relationship between Tehran and Ankara has been warming up. Political goodwill is being translated into significant energy cooperation and both sides, despite resistance from several influential quarters, are looking at participating in the Nabucco pipeline, which will carry huge quantities of gas to Europe.
As the geopolitical alignments ahead of the U.S. pullout begin to emerge, India's absence is glaring. Piqued by India's high profile in Kabul, Pakistan's military establishment has been looking for openings that would allow it to achieve its maximalist objective of seeking India's hasty, and preferably unseemly, exit from Afghanistan.
However, two major hurdles have been impeding Pakistan's path so far. First, the rapid improvement in Indo-U.S. ties during the Bush presidency firmly deterred it from taking India head-on in Afghanistan. Second, the Afghan presidency, closely tied to New Delhi since 2001, was hostile to Islamabad.
However, the scenario changed dramatically with the exit of the Bush administration and the emergence of Barack Obama. Focussed on an exit strategy from Afghanistan, the Americans deepened their security dependence on the Pakistanis in the hope of achieving rapid success. As a result, the Indian fortress in Afghanistan which looked impregnable during the Bush era was breached. Pakistan utilised this opportunity to the hilt.
A staunch ally of India for several years, President Karzai after his re-election last year began to exhibit unusual warmth towards Pakistan. His description of India as a friend and Pakistan as a conjoined twin during his visit to Islamabad was widely seen as a demonstration of his waning affection towards New Delhi.
There has been a significant deterioration in India-Iran ties since New Delhi voted against Tehran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on the Iranian nuclear programme. In fact, the day India voted against Iran, it seriously jeopardised its project in Afghanistan. Without a geographically contiguous border, India can extend its reach into Afghanistan only through the Iranian corridor.
With its back to the wall, how does India propose to get back into the great game of realignments beginning to unfold in and around Afghanistan? It can draw some inspiration from its diplomatic conduct in the past — when it worked successfully with the Iranians, Russians and Central Asians, especially the Tajiks to unroll the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in 2001. With the recent visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to New Delhi where discussions on Afghanistan took place, India has taken its first major step in the right direction.
Mending fences with Iran has to be India's next major undertaking. However, in trying to rework its relations, India is left with only one weighty card, which it can play with good effect provided it begins to view its national interests independently and not through the tinted glasses of the U.S. With its huge requirements of energy, India needs to get back to the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project. But in doing so, it has to substantially modify the arrangement and turn it around to suit its core long-term interests.
Iran would, with considerable enthusiasm, welcome India's participation in this project, as is evident from the provisions included in the gas deal that was signed by Iran and Pakistan in Istanbul in March. Therein lies the opportunity for India to claw back into the arrangement and take it forward from there.
Instead of waiting for others like Pakistan to seize the initiative, India can benefit substantially by boldly and formally initiating the introduction of two significant players — Russia and China — into this tie up. The Russian gas giant Gazprom has already expressed its keen interest to participate in IPI. Gazprom's representative in Tehran, Abubakir Shomuzov, has called for the extension of IPI to China, in an arrangement that would tie Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Iran together in a giant project.
Russia's participation in the IPI would be crucial for India. With Russia firmly on its side, India can, with greater ease and confidence, engage with China in this cooperative enterprise. In the debate on the extension of IPI to China, the route that this pipeline can pursue would be of vital importance. If India has to take advantage of this extension, it has to insist that the pipeline passing through Iran and Pakistan should go through an Indian transit corridor and no other alternative route before entering China.
Such an arrangement would greatly help in making the IPI-plus arrangement more stable and workable. With China, Pakistan's all-weather friend as the final beneficiary, Islamabad would find it impossible to block supplies to India. In other words, the routing of the pipeline to China via India, and the interdependence that it would generate among the various stakeholders would become New Delhi's insurance policy for obtaining assured gas supplies from Iran via Pakistan.
There is a final diplomatic dimension which needs to be added if IPI-plus is to succeed. Critics of the IPI rightly point to the security problems that this project, in the current circumstances, is bound to encounter during the pipeline's passage through the turbulent province of Balochistan. A comprehensive dialogue may therefore be the way forward to resolve this problem. India, which in recent years has gone into a diplomatic shell, can take the high-ground and propose a comprehensive six-party process. Besides itself, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia, China and Iran can become the core participants of this arrangement. Such a forum, carefully constructed, adequately resourced and energetically led can take head-on not only the question of Baluchistan, but all other issues that may stand in the way of a lasting trans-national energy partnership.
Keywords: India, Iran, Afghanistan, AfPak policy, IPI pipeline, Atul Aneja
IPI a great idea......perfect solution presented ...by involving china we can have surety on the side of pakistan..by strengthing relations with Afghanistan and Iran. we can have the enrgy requirements fullfilled. and advance in technology by invilving rusia can make things realy turn around and we would not have to depend upon american relation.. which make our condition worse.. the way we are treated in america by wearing rings in foot and hands (so called detectors) make feeling about their policies... finally...great if ipi is implemented
1) First of all IPI-project is applicable in papers only. Even the NATO trucks to afghanistan were burned everyday by Terrorists, how can somebody protect 1000 miles long GAS pipeline? Everyone plays this IPI card to gain diplomatic gains. INDIA plays for geting Nuclear PACT with US, at the same time PAKISTAn also plays IPI card to US for the same! So forget about IPI as a practical solution. 2) Secondly, If you have to gain something you are bound to lose something too! That is what happened with Iran. By voting against Iran in UN India got more closer to US.That was inevitable to get Pakistan in control..no country other than US is useful in this matter! 3) If we want to balance US-Iran relation, it would be the biggest Diplomatic challenge India has ever faced.and one player in between..that's Israel.
India's trust-gaining capability, as amply demonstrated in Afghanistan, should be put to use in regaining the support and confidence of the Iranians and the tribals of Pakistan.
The logistical problems are minor matters, in comparison to the political and trust-deficit challenges.
A more vigorous Energy Ministers' Conference, than the usual Foreign Ministers and Secretaries' Meet, may work better than expected.
India's trust-gaining capability, as amply demonstrated in Afghanistan, should be put to use in regaining the support and confidence of the Iranians and the tribals of Pakistan.
The logistical problems are minor matters, in comparison to the political and trust-deficit challenges.
A more vigorous Energy Ministers' Conference, than the usual Foreign Ministers and Secretaries' Meet, may work better than expected.
India needs to learn how to hedge its bets. Given where we are with the geopolitics of the great game, it would be best for India to participate in a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, but also build a direct underwater Iran-India pipeline instead of IPI. That way India has not put all its eggs in one basket (or rather basket case). Regional security must be ensured by limiting China's strategic depth to Burmese ports.
It seems to me this article suggests that in either way IPIC ( iran-pak-india-china) or IPC (iran-pak-china ) .... china is the net gainer.
It seems that China is the insurance policy for this pipeline.
The inconvenient truth about so called independent Indian foreign policy is that, it is expert in piggybacking on other major powers and then just skid left or right depending on the situation. It thus suggest, that India has no clear long term foreign policy goals and vision.
Unless India is able to chalk out clear long term foreign policy goals and vision, and do minute short term adjustments while ensuring that it does not let its long term goals derail, India will always remain the net looser and continue to regret the fruits.
India should in case of IPI, encourage and covertly fully assist balochistan to break away from pakistan. This will not only cut the distance of shipping gas or oil to as close as Gwadar port, it will also uproot chinese naval presence in the region. India will have a much easier access to central asia through this route, although it will have to keep Iran on its side. Other than that, India should also try to carve sindhudesh ( although this is too early to predict this and certain sounds more propaganda ) out of the sindh province. Then India can create a secure and formidable IBSI pipe line. This will benefit B and S with the transit free besides catering to its own enegry needs.
Although IBSI is a myopic theory, Iran-Balochistan-India link is a reality and it is better for India to pay now for Balochistan and reap later, than allow others to steal its pie.
History is very unforgiving. India aint going to get any leeway from Pakistan not under these circumstances. Why would China want their gas trough India even in their wildest dream. Why would Iran want to Jeopordise its newly found relations with Pakistan. India can dream all it can but its biggest mistake was to cuddle with the Americans. Well, now it has to pay for it with some good deed but not with being a Super Power of the area. Even the Chinese dont act like Big Power in its neighborhood. It pays top price for its gas or other resources and establishes a relationship which no other Western Power offers as they believe in "Gottcha" Colonial and or Imperialistic Policies.
The way Karzai's attitude has changed towards India clearly implies that there has been lot of back door lobbying by Pakistan. Afghanistan in the coming decade will be centre-stage of power politics for China, India &Pakistan. Now with Iran also showing its interest in Afghanistan the scenario is clearly changing fast. Unfortunately India seems to be odd man out in this group. And after voting against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) summit on the Iranian nuclear program, it has put itself in deeper hole. With US clearly looking tired and desperately seeking to move out, the role of Asian countries especially Afghanistan’s neighbors becomes of paramount importance. Pakistan seems to have read situation better than India and is clearly making great efforts. And with Taliban still very much there India’s problems only seem to increase manifold.
India needs to act swiftly and take some bold initiatives in this regard. Firstly, it should stop towing US line against Iran, since Iran is the only democracy in Middle East. This will also help India in getting close to Iran’s allies thereby giving it a stronger foot and backing in Afghanistan, Also it’s the time that India brings its all weather friend, Russia, into the frame. Russia has never been supportive of USA in Afghanistan and trying to get itself in. With Russia in there India can develop a cohesive group, which will provide it with diplomatic superiority in Afghanistan.
The saner advise and only remedy to regions multiple problems. These problems emanate partly from ignorance and partly due to big power meddling.
Iran sits on the massive gas reserves and is the only functioning democracy in the Middle East apart from Israel. Iran has never in history invaded any country but is being demonised because it dares to stare 'big powers' in eye. Israel and Saudis are best allies of West though these regimes are either dictatorships are fascist. Israel limits democracy to people subscribing to a particular faith.
We should not let neo-cons siting in Washington dictate course of our foreign policy but allow brighter and peaceful future for billion plus people living in this region by going ahead with such great projects.
A great plan!! If this comes true, India will be one of the most influential power in Asia. India will have the capacity to control gas supply to China, ASEAN and South Asia. India need to mend its tie with Iran and rekindle the warmth in realtions with Russia, Infact Indo-Russia and Indo-Iran relations are the key to this whole project, we need to bring Russia on board......Though it will mean sour relations with US and NATO. India should also seek the membership of SCO and it should welcome the warmth in ties of Pakistan and US.......its a great way of parting away China from Pakistan, which is the worst case scenario for India.
It seems that the 6 nation strategy of pipeline is a best workout which will make the project successful. India will be given the Gas pipe line through Pak-India-china which will not block it in any ways. Relating to security reasons in Paki tribal regions. It nedds commitment from Pak side to protect it.
May be it will stabilize the external relations of the three countries. and I think that India by voting against Iran and severe relations with Pak will affect its presence in Afghanistan.
Iran has been the only Islamic country (member of OIC) which has shown sympathy for the Indian view point about Kashmir, in 1971 war with Pakistan etc.India-Iran have 5000 years of contact from the times of the Vedic Civilization. Persian and Hindi(even Sanskrit) have several common words.
India also has second largest Shia population in the world (strategic areas like Kargil District(Kashmir) which may see a plebiscite in future are Shia dominated). Shias are peaceloving and progressive people and many of them serve India in various capacities (like all others of course).
One can say that Iran (Shia),S. Arabia (Sunni - Ahl e Hadith) and Eygypt (Arab Culture/Civilization) civilizationally speaking are "three pillars" of the Islamic political world. All the three have Oil resources which we need. India needs the co-operation of all the three governments in tacking security/energy problems. So, its better to have friendly relations with them.
Iran and India have a lot of economic potential also.India must seek to have friendly relations with all the three in its own interest. That was also "undeclared" the policy of J. Nehru/ Indira Gandhi/other PMs since past 60 yrs. Nehru managed to have good relations with Eygypt (excellent) , Iran (good) and S. Arabia ( cause for concern - especially Internal security issues).
As usual Indian planners have missed the opportunity in the Af-Pak strategy. And this proposed pipeline to China via India from Iran sounds very impractical given the varying interests of the countries involved. Iran does not need Pak or India to supply the gas to China. It is better for India to improve the bilteral relation with Iran ( after India's stand aginst the nuclear ambitions of Iran in international arenas.)before even thinking of such projects.
As an Iranian, I can assure you that Iran has not only been a threat to the world at large but a threat to Iranians. I suggest you first live with the regime in Tehran and then put out such theories.
IPI pipeline is a pipe dream whichever way you route it. Iran has plenty other takers for its gas. It would use the gas card to win concessions from Russia, Pak and even Afghanistan and finally in any non-nuclear energy discussions with USA too, just to keep its nuclear programme going.
Pak. has no interest in giving India what it needs - cheap energy and energy security
Similarly China has no interest and it can lay different Afghan routes.
USA has no interest either! It needs to sell all the nuclear reactor tech and some fuel too.
The article throws up some important alternatives and viewpoints but the need of the hour is for India to totally re-invent its diplomatic thinking and belief systems. Unless this is done, we will continue to be obviated from seeing the truth of a situation and instead be fettered to deceptive collating and analysis of facts and figures. The emerging US-Af-Pak, Iran-Pak and other geopolitical alignments and alliances in and around the area are examples of the fruits of India’s faulty reasoning which assumes wrongly and thereby fail to either plan or anticipate various probabilities that could unfold as political leaderships, International institutions and support systems change. A sound diplomatic strategy must be the consummation of various alternatives, back up plans and anticipatory thinking, so that whatever alignments and alliances evolve we are already factored in to become an indispensible part of the solution or solutions.
Pakistan and Iran can't be either stable nations or our allies in the near future. China is our competitor. Having or not having IPI is not going to change this basic regional situation. Nobody is going to offer attractive IPI to India now. Iran, Pakistan and Afganistan will take a very long time to stabilise. And until these countries stop viewing geo political issues with their religiously coloured vision nothing will change. The opinions put forward here are just a wishfull thinking. In the present geo-political scenario US India relationship is the only guarantee for the long-term stability and developmengt of this region.
India should not invest in such precarious region where civil unrest and rebellion is imminent at any moment. We should not burn our fingures in this flame of oil... If we see history for past 50 years, the region had not been stable and military had taken power frequently.
Interesting scenario! However, it is important not to abandon the links with the U.S. however tempting the Iranian pipeline is. In the final analysis, while Russia is a long time ally and a dependable one, China is not. And Iran is still under the control of extremists. Pakistan will fish in troubled waters as long as it can, but will be reined in by the U.S. who is its major donor. And Karzai can be brought back in once he realises that Pakistan is not a reliable entity.
The way to go forward is cautious diplomacy, no hasty moves.
Time and tide may change Iran's AfPak policy.India has to wait and watch and prepare its strategy in a balanced way.RADHA KUMUD DAS.
India should have a consistent policy towards Iran. It should not treat Iran as untouchable when it comes to the relation with US. India should back Iran in international fora such as UN and IAEA. There should be a great deal of cooperation between South Asian countries, China and Russia. If India still depends on Uncle Sam for its foreign policy issues and behaves as a regional big brother it will soon stand isolated in International area after being heavily exploited and let down by United States.
The story is interesting but the analysis seems flawed. You forget the role of the US and our real long term ally, a natural one is the US not by any stretch of imagination the Islamic clergy run government. By ignoring US strategic interests we harm ourselves much more as the game plays out with Pakistan, who WE are joined at the hip with, being a major factor.
A very good article. India's tendency to get itself tied to the apron string of US should be stopped. In the fight between US and Iran we need not tow the US line. We should have remained neutral. The IPI pipeline project is a good one but US will torpedo it somehow or other. It is already pressing Pakistan.
There are interesting points in this article and I hope that in near future the union of Asian giants would happen to counter American and European influence in the world.
I don't agree as IPI is more a headache than investment. Key for Iran lies in Russia and Israel.
This article is a nicely laid out analysis of ground realities of interdependent security/economic interests of multiple regional players. However,in giving a solution, the author is too optimistic in his expectation of cooperation amoung the participents. As an example,when it comes to implementation,China may not agree to depend on the pipeline transit through India, citing cost factor. Due to competing nature of the players involved,ultimately it may end up as series of BILATERAL pacts amoungst the nations involved. I hope I am wrong.
The IPI pipeline is a non-starter in the short term, due to Pakistan's adverserial relationship. Though the pipeline extension from India to China sounds good in theory, there is no incentive for Pakistan or China to agree to this. They can go straight to China through Pakistan or the Wakhan corridor in Afghanistan, bypassing India. We still need to find ways to work with Iran and ensure the US plans of isolating it are unsuccessful, but just not through the IPI.
Very good thought about having stability in Asia. I may also add, besides IPI+link there can ba a railway link among all Asean countries. Let the ancient civilisations come together so their populations could have better understaning of all the mythical cultures.
All issues considered, perhaps the shallow sea route through Pakistani waters on to mainland India and then on to China through Myanmar may be the best route for the pipeline. Of course, the pipeline would also involve passage through the shallow waters of Bangladesh. Bangladesh probably presents less of a hurdle to this route than Pakistan. The security aspects based on Pakistan's instability could thus be overcome by routing the Pakistani supply through an off-shoot from the main supply line from the sea.
I beg to differ on this. First of all, Pakistan and Afganistan (AF-PAK/PAK-AF) is one region that's not going to stabilise now or ever. Pakistan was born with one thing in mind, "hate India" The jihad ideology will one day create civil unrest and mayhem in Pakistan, better not to get involved with a failed state and better to secure the borders.
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