It is not Japan's demise that the earthquake has produced, but rather the possibility of its rebirth. It may be that only amid the ruins can people gain the courage to stride down a new path.
I was on the streets of Tokyo when the earthquake struck. The ground shook violently, while buildings swayed around me for a long time. It was beyond anything I had experienced before, and I sensed that something terrible had happened. My first thought was of the Kobe earthquake that killed more than 6,000 people in 1995. Although I did not experience the Kobe earthquake first hand, it hit the region of my hometown where many close relatives lived, and so I headed immediately to the scene of the disaster. I walked the streets where building after building had collapsed into rubble.
Clearly, the scale of the current disaster far surpasses that of the Kobe earthquake. For it also includes the damage caused by the tsunami to coastal regions across hundreds of kilometres as well as the danger of nuclear catastrophe. Yet these are not the only differences. The Kobe earthquake was completely unexpected. Aside from a small number of experts, no one had imagined the possibility of an earthquake there.
The recent earthquake, on the other hand, had been anticipated. Earthquakes and tsunamis have struck the Northeastern region of Japan throughout its history, and frequent warnings had been sounded in recent years. Meanwhile, nuclear power had always given rise to strong opposition, criticism, and warnings. Yet the scale of the earthquake went far beyond any prior anticipation. It was not that anticipating the scale of such a disaster was impossible, just that people had purposely avoided doing so.
There is another difference. Although the Kobe earthquake occurred after the end of the bubble economy of the1980s, when economic recession had already taken hold, people at the time had yet to fully recognise the demise of Japan's high-growth economy. For this reason, the Kobe earthquake initially appeared as a symbol of Japan's economic downfall. Yet this was quickly forgotten as the nation tried to recapture an age when people spoke of ‘Japan as No. 1.' It was after the Kobe earthquake that Japan wholeheartedly adopted neoliberal economic policies with the pretext of reviving the economy.
In contrast, the awareness of economic decline was widespread in Japan prior to the recent earthquake. The shrinking birth rate and the ageing of the population left no room for a rosy outlook. Although empty nationalist rhetoric calling for Japan's revival as an economic superpower continues to hold sway in the major media, a different perspective has taken root in people's hearts, one that acknowledges the reality and continuing prospect of low growth and that calls for the formation of a new economy and civil society. In this respect, the recent earthquake does not come as a surprise shock to the economy. Rather, it will only strengthen already existing tendencies, confirming, in a sense, the very issues that were overlooked following the Kobe earthquake.
In the wake of the Kobe disaster I was impressed, first of all, by the relative composure of the elderly people who had lost their homes. Their attitude was that having started out from the burnt-out ruins of World War II, they had only to start over again. Second, large numbers of young volunteers, raised in an age of affluence, gathered from all over Japan to help out, forming communities of mutual aid. Such a phenomenon was not unique to Japan. I have heard of a similar occurrence following the recent Sichuan earthquake in China. Such communities emerge where traditional communities are gone.
Examining the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and subsequent catastrophes in her book A Paradise Built in Hell, Rebecca Solnit concludes that “extraordinary communities arise in disaster.” It is commonly thought that when order dissipates, a Hobbesian natural state arises in which people behave as wolves toward one another. The reality, however, is that people who regarded one another with fear when living in the social order created by the state form communities of mutual aid amid the chaos following disaster, a spontaneous type of order that differs from that which exists under the state.
It was this type of community that was born in the aftermath of the Kobe earthquake. Yet Japan's particular historical experience also came into play. For the ruins of the earthquake strongly evoked the psychological conditions following World War II, when people came together to reflect upon the war and the history of modern Japan that led to it. The ‘paradise' formed in the wake of the disaster, however, was short-lived, and the memory of the war disappeared along with it.
When order was restored following the Kobe earthquake, the dominant tendency was to try to use the disaster as a business opportunity to effect economic revival. Prime Minister Koizumi encouraged neoliberalist policies all the more, and he trampled on the post-war pacifist Constitution by pushing through the dispatch of Self-Defence forces to Iraq. Yet the end result was continuing economic stagnation and a widening gap between rich and poor. As a result, the Liberal Democratic Party, which had held sway for so long, yielded power to the Democratic Party of Japan. Yet the new administration was unable to embark on a new course.
This was the situation in which the recent earthquake occurred. Once more, the disaster evoked the burnt-out ruins after the war. In addition, the crisis at the Fukushima nuclear power plant cannot help but call forth memories of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Post-war Japanese have had a strong, even excessive, aversion to nuclear weapons and to nuclear power in general. Needless to say, there was strong opposition to the building of nuclear power plants in Japan.
Nonetheless, following the oil shocks of the 1970s, the state affirmed and encouraged the development of nuclear power plants. Early campaigns proclaimed the necessity of nuclear power for economic growth, while in recent years it was claimed that nuclear power could help reduce carbon emissions and therefore benefit the environment. That such claims were a form of criminal deception on the part of industry and government has been made all too clear by recent events.
In the ruins of post-war Japan, people reflected upon the path the country had taken in modern times. Standing against the Western powers, modern Japan strived to achieve the status of a great military power. The shattering of this dream in the nation's defeat led to another goal, to become a great economic power. The ultimate collapse of this ambition has been brought into sharp relief by the recent earthquake. Even without the earthquake, it was fated for destruction.
In truth, it is not the Japanese economy alone that is failing. In the early 1970s, global capitalism entered a period of serious recession, and since then it has been unable to overcome the decline in the general rate of profit. Capital has sought a way out of this decline through global financial investment and by extending industrial investment into what had formerly been ‘third world' regions. The collapse of the former strategy has been exposed by the so-called Lehman shock. Meanwhile, the accelerated development of countries such as China, India, and Brazil, continues. Yet such accelerated growth cannot last long. It is inevitable that wages will rise and a limit on consumption be reached.
For this reason, global capitalism will no doubt become unsustainable in 20 or 30 years. The end of capitalism, however, is not the end of human life. Even without capitalist economic development or competition, people are able to live. Or rather, it is only then that people will, for the first time, truly be able to live. Of course, the capitalist economy will not simply come to an end. Resisting such an outcome, the great powers will no doubt continue to fight over natural resources and markets.
Yet I believe that the Japanese should never again choose such a path. Without the recent earthquake, Japan would no doubt have continued its hollow struggle for great power status, but such a dream is now unthinkable and should be abandoned. It is not Japan's demise that the earthquake has produced, but rather the possibility of its rebirth. It may be that only amid the ruins can people gain the courage to stride down a new path.
(Professor Kojin Karatani is a distinguished Japanese philosopher and literary critic. This essay, written on March 16, 2011 and translated into English by Seiji M. Lippit, is published by The Hindu with the permission of the author. Professor Karatani's biography is at www.kojinkaratani.com/en/bios/ biography.html.)
Keywords: Japan's earthquake, capitalist economy, Kobe disaster, global economy
The Japanese earthquake cautions the world nations about the after effects of nuclear power plants. Particularly India should take note of such events and should orient its policy towards solar power and wind energy rather entering into agreements which completely evade accountability of foreign players. Hope Indian government values the life of Indians and its future generations more than individuals merger needs.
Yes the tragedies are just round the corner-the view beyond is hidden from the specialists and the perpetrators of isis - international selfish information suppression. The designs of modern civilisation are unacceptable dangers to life on this planet. By applying the precautionary principle it must be banned and a switch over to the normal initiated now. The normal is a version of the modern fully workable in the present context. You may get a hint at the way forward when you make it feasible to work where you live and also get food by growing it near you. Whan you want you produce, when you are hungry you eat like a yogi-in moderation. Be thrifty in all your ways of living. To get a sense of the present malady and its roots look for the Fukushima catastrophe and similar ones beginning with the May 12 Sichuan earthquake. You will notice a glaring lacuna in modern civilisation's design for meeting global water needs- the cumulative effects of dams are suicidal-climate change by direct heating up of the earth, earthquakes, tsunamies, and when nukes are located at these places-catastrophies! Study the URL http://glaringlacuna.blogspot.com and all the URLs mentioned therein and wonder how man can be so stupid in blindly dying from modern ways.
I really hope that Japan will give a new interpretation for development from the lessons learnt from this grave catastrophe. The single-minded concentration for broadening the pie ignoring the various dis-economies, resulted in environmental degradation, health hazards for the people, etc. The lessons learnt by Japan made her educate other nations about the danger of environmental pollution as well as the ways of prevention.
I hope that Japan's 'rebirth' would herald a new path of development, which would not limit itself to expansion of material riches only.
I would rather say,accepting the earthquake was an enevitable fate, Japanese should stand again together to embark on the new path for destiny.Japan should get the motivation from past, where ravaged by world war 2, Japan still managed to get out of it and emerged as a super power.That was only possible by it's never tiring effort and unflagging will.
Mr.Karatani states ... "Japan would no doubt have continued its hollow struggle for great power status, but such a dream is now unthinkable and should be abandoned." These are not the words which even Japan's worst enemies would even whisper at this perilous juncture and grave tragedy. The tragedy at Chernobyl was not averted even though it was part of a state economy. Does Tsunami pick a particular type of economy to strike? Fortunately, since the Japanese people do not share the pettiness and belief in self-defeatism of the author, they are coping with this great tragedy bravely and stoically. This tragedy has a unique lesson for India, not being discussed among academics, media and the government -- the Russian plant at Kudankulam does NOT bestow any suppliers' liability on the Russians and Tamil Nadu is prone to Tsunamis.
Japan has been very unlucky. It had been suffering from natural disasters and manual disasters frequently. But every time Japan has shown great patience and courage. Aftermath all the disasters, it was Japan which is the world's third most economically country. And I think that it will able to regain all the things which it has lost except human life.
"It was not that anticipating the scale of such a disaster was impossible, just that people had purposely avoided doing so." Very aptly observed!
This brings to our mind the thought provoking theory of 'The Black Swan' by Nassim Taleb referring to a class of events that shares three essential features namely 1) Outliers in that they lie outside the bounds of rational expectations. 2) These outliers, the so called black swans, have huge impacts. 3) We tend to adopt rationalisations on damage after the event has wrecked havoc.
Similar to 9/11 New York terror attack, the crisis at Japan's crippled Fukushima Daiichi plant clearly was a Black Swan event as it was caused by crisis out side the expectations of system designers. Where the designers could foresee the possibility of severe earth quake and design a back up local power supply in the event of any incident, such an earthquake, that knocked out the grid, would have little impact. The local power generator itself was also designed to withstand a tsunami of 6.5 meters. This tsunami exceeded that figure and so knocked out the secondary power source. A battery remained, but it was designed to last only for four hours, hardly enough for the magnitude of the accident. This earthquake is the largest ever recorded in Japan and its associated secondary effects, the tsunami, were clearly outside the calculations of Fukushima's engineers, truly a Black Swan event.
The Black Swan is critical here because proponents of nuclear power have focused on the earthquake and tsunami, arguing that other regions of the world are more geologically stable than Japan. However that misses the point entirely. What is at issue in the Fukushima case is the cascading loss of power. That loss was outside of expectations. There may be other Black Swans leading to the loss of power generation and, thereby, resulting in an accident. This consideration is important if we have to use more nuclear power generated by more nuclear reactors. Do we really want to spread nuclear technology far and wide, knowing what we know about Black Swans, normal accidents and so on?
I have been a student of the second world war nearly all of my life, and the resolve and bravery of the Japanese is ingrained in their people as well as their entire nation. Where you now see tangled, twisted wreckage from the tsunami will soon be replaced by a clean and orderly city far different than the one that once stood there. The Japanese spirit and determination is all but unknown to most of the world, but the world could take a good lesson from these fine people. They are selfless, and they will give up their own lives for the greater good of all, especially their own families. We are witnessing right now the character of the Japanese. If only other nations had such courage.
Notwithstanding the enormous loss suffered by Japan, it is heartening to see the people resilient and determined to build on their dreams again from the rubble. It is clear that they are determined to use this horrible experience to learn in order to create a better future for themselves. The rest of the world should also learn from this tragedy and make better policies in the course of their development.
This is an excellent piece by an insightful author. His predictions of the failure of capitalism in 20 to 30 years time cannot but be accurate, and the doom and gloom is tempered by the fact that an end to the capitalistic economic model does not imply the end of human existence. Economics is nothing more than a social science intended to maximise welfare in human societies. Any economic model is artificially created by humans for humans, and therefore a collapse of a particular model will simply lead to some other model designed to serve the welfare purpose under the prevailing circumstances. As for the future of the Japanese people, I believe they will bounce back strongly, in little to no time, as they have in the past. Their discipline, courage and commitment are second to none (only the Germans come close). Where disaster has hit in other parts of the world, e.g. Haiti, New Orleans, etc, we have seen anarchy and chaos, but in Japan we have seen order, unity and determination. There is much for us Indians to learn from the Japanese people. I wish them all the best in the tough years ahead.
This is such a clear-headed look at Japan's future. Thank you to The Hindu for reproducing it. Japan's experience --- it's grit and determination to achieve the perfection of military/industrial/capitalist societies, and it's failures --- teaches us a lot about the significance of these things to human life. Human beings are more than consumers. A capitalistic society has its limitations and will eventually reach a bubble that will burst. Maybe our goals are different? We should at least make an attempt to find them. I believe that what Japan has been through holds lessons for the entire world and for India. I pray for God's grace on the Japanese people.
I have little doubt that this challenge will provide the Japanese with the challenge, impetus, catalyst that will catapult them into a new growth trajectory. But, this will not bring the dead back to life or dry the tears of the bereaved. While the world rejoices in anticipation of a new engine of growth, I sorrow with the mourners.
Not really sure what the Professor attempts to say. It appears that he is advocating a path away from capitalism and free market economy yet does not suggest any alternative system to be followed. Also, how is Koizumi's 'Self Defence Force for Iraq', a catalyst for Japanese loss of economic superpower status, is not clear.
While it may be true that capitalism and free market economy are not the panacea of all ills, they are certainly the best ways forward in comparison with the other forms like communism and socialism. The fate of the communist and socialist states of the world and the way China, a proclaimed communist state, has been making itself more capitlistic than even the capitalists from the days of Deng Xiaoping, should throw adequate light on the fate of utopian concepts such as communism and socialism.
What is needed is a 'humane-capitalism' that does not advocate unabashed profiteering on the part of private enterprise, insistence on family oriented growth and encouraging savings from the family level. For that the government should take over its basic functions such as education, infrastructure development and healthcare and ask private enterprise to concentrate on other areas such as technology develoment and trade, which in the Japanese scenario is a doable one given the nature of the Japanese as a people.
Japanese are peaceful,hardwoking,honest and nature loving people.But when they chose to emulate the western world,the downfall started.Even now Japan is a rich country and technically well advanced.With advancement came an insatiable appetite for energy.Tokyo and sububrbs consume 40,000 Mw power with all the modern equpment running 24 x7 and neon lamps lighting up the streets.Only nuclear energy can meet their energy requirement.But it came with an unprecedented 'price tag' in human history.I am sure Japan and the the rest of the world,especially India with highest growth rate, will learn some valuable lessons from this incident.Our politicians should understand the risk involved in adopting 'nuclear technology from Russia'while still struggling with poverty and illteracy.
What an insightful article.
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