The decades-old winter of frozen and fossilised structures and systems in the Arab world are thawing.
The term exceptionalism in the Arab context harks back to Samuel Huntington's thesis that envisages the progression of democracy in waves. The third wave was frozen after its initial advances in the 1970s. It never washed the shores of the Arab/Muslim world, according to this thesis. Hence the Arab exceptionalism. Today, the term has been reinvented in the context of the Arab Spring. The Spring is a year old, and not a single crowned head has rolled so far. Hence, the monarchical exceptionalism.
The institution of monarchy does provide a buffer between the monarch and his subjects in the form of a government structure. The king has the privilege of sacking a besieged government and still remaining in power. In the case of Saudi Arabia, the oil-wealth, a small population, huge government patronage, welfare economy, etc., provide additional immunity. On the other hand, an ageing leadership, internet-savvy and educated youth, assertive women, sectarian divisions, and a contagious “Arab Spring” all around in the neighbourhood indicate a partial and potential vulnerability of the Saudi King.
Youth, women & minorities
The condition of the youth, women and the minorities is the barometer of a country's socio-political health. A closer scrutiny of these three segments of Saudi society is necessary to understand the general ethos in the country. There is no uniform mobilisation and there have been no widespread protests in the country so far. The Saudi youth, women and the Shias in the east of the country have voiced their grievances separately, nonetheless.
In view of the tightly secured Saudi streets, cyberspace has provided an alternative platform to mark the popular protests. Internet activists have resorted to it in a big way. Blogs have appeared to express the anger; documentaries have been made to expose poverty that has never been acknowledged. Petitions have been signed to call for a constitutional monarchy. There was an attempt at forming a political party. The founders were arrested almost immediately.
Saudi women live under the guardianship of their male relatives. Their decisions to get education, to work, to travel or to receive health care must be endorsed by their guardians. They are not permitted to drive or ride in a vehicle driven by someone who is not a close male relative or an employee. King Abdullah evoked a flurry of expectant speculation, when he stated that the Saudi women would “one day be able to drive.” That was soon after he inherited the Saudi monarchy. After waiting several years for that “one day,” the women have become restive. Late last year, some drove and posted the videos of themselves behind the wheels on YouTube and other social networks. Their cases are pending before the courts and they will not go unpunished.
Late last year, King Abdullah announced in a five-minute speech televised live that he was granting women the right to vote in future municipal elections, the right to run as candidates, and that they would be appointed to the Shura Council, the 150-member body that advises the King on legislation and policy. This time around, fewer Saudi women are reported to be excited about it. Some are sceptical, and many more cynical.
All Saudis follow Islam. There is a major sectarian cleavage between the Sunni and the Shia interpretations of Islam. The Shias are the largest minority in the country, constituting anywhere between four and 15 per cent of the population and numbering anywhere between one and four million. What makes the Shia situation crucial is the fact that the oil wealth is located under their soil and in the water around their land. Left to themselves, theirs could be the richest state in the entire region. Protests erupted in the Eastern Province on the “Day of Rage” in mid-March last year, and have continued since then. A hundred people have been arrested, scores have been shot dead.
Survival, sectarianism & Iran
The Saudi responses to the Arab Spring in its neighbourhood can neatly be summarised in three words: survival, sectarianism and Iran. Zainul Abedin ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Qaddafi did not survive the onslaught of the Arab Spring. The signs of its nascent arrival in the Kingdom are already evident. An active foreign policy to claim leadership of the Sunni Arabs, therefore, is an imperative for the royal survival. Iran, a Shia non-Arab power across the Gulf waters, to that extent, is the prime target of Saudi activism.
The Saudi involvement with the Arab Spring has seen a progression with each case. The Saudis were reportedly disappointed by the U.S. abandoning the besieged Hosni Mubarak and offered to restore the monetary assistance that the U.S. withdrew from him. King Abdullah came out in support of Mr. Mubarak from his sickbed in Morocco. The Saudis' response to the Libyan developments was one of reticence, even as they went along with the Qatari lead in inviting foreign intervention.
Yemen is a complicated and multi-layered conflict situation. The Saudis have three major concerns. One, the Saudi-born-and-bred al-Qaeda has found a safe haven in Yemen. Two, the long and uncontrolled border has been a regular route for illegal immigration, arms smuggling and narcotics trade. Three, the Saudis fear waves of Yemeni refugees, if the situation deteriorates. The Saudis have sought to manage the Yemeni situation, first by granting the former President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, political asylum, and then facilitating his exit.
It was the Spring in Bahrain that jolted the Saudis into action. A small island Kingdom with a Sunni ruler and roughly 70 per cent Shia population, Bahrain has always been divided along the sectarian cleavage. The Spring, predictably, turned into the Shia struggle for equality. Political stability and a compliant regime in Bahrain are of utmost importance to the U.S., as the American base on the island is considered the most important strategic territory outside the U.S. proper. Any disturbance in the country would be unacceptable to the U.S. and its Saudi ally.
As the violence erupted beyond the Bahraini authority's capability to tackle it, the Saudis stepped in. A convoy of 150 armoured troop carriers and about 50 lightly armed vehicles carried about 1,000 Saudi soldiers across the King Fahd Causeway into Bahrain in mid-March.
The Saudi stand on Syria, unlike on Egypt, Yemen and Bahrain, is to support the uprising. Lest there be a doubt about its motive in castigating President Bashar al-Assad's repressive policy, the Saudi Prince, Turki al-Faisal, explained it thus: “The impending fall of Mr. Assad's barbarous regime provides a rare strategic opportunity to weaken Iran. Without this vital ally, Tehran will find it more difficult to foment discord in the Arab world. Today, there is a chance for the United States and Saudi Arabia to contain Iran and prevent it from destabilising the region.” The quote is an open admission; even an assertion. The Saudi path to Iran runs through Syria.
What next?
Tunisia, Libya and Egypt in North Africa have been the harbingers of the Arab Spring. All three of them have witnessed regime changes and are in the process of taking stock and moving forward at their own individual pace. Whether the Spring will spread eastward in a typical domino fashion to the rest of the Arab world remains to be seen. Whether it eventually brings about a comprehensive reshaping of the region is uncertain at best. What is certain is that the decades-old winter of frozen and fossilised structures and systems in the Arab world are thawing. And Saudi Arabia is no exception.
(Professor Gulshan Dietl is at Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi.)
Keywords: Arab Spring, Samuel Huntington's thesis, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Saudi King
The past is never a good indicator of the future and the Arab Spring amply demonstrated that. I was in Egypt during the last 3 months preceding the Tahrir Square demonstrations and can say with confidence that the place showed no signs of a brewing revolution whatsoever.
There can be no denying the fact that freedom is the most universally espoused value in the Twenty First century. If one were to study Maslow's hierarchy of human needs, fulfilment of basic requirements like food, housing and sex will inevitably lead to demand for higher forms of gratification including personal freedom.
That many readers say that citizens in KSA are far better placed than their counterparts in other free democracies including India may be true. But the same fact then strengthens the possibility of the Saudis demanding greater intellectual and political freedom since they do not have to worry about basic needs any more.
The Arab Spring in Saudi Arabia may be far off but Arab Spring appear like a Tsunami without a warning. Who thought about regime change in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen five years ago? Both the rulers of Syria and Saudi Arabia are oppressive. Syria is less oppressive of the freedom of minorities, other religions and women's rights than Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia reduces descent by giving out some of its oil wealth to the citizens in the form of huge government patronage and welfare economy where as Syrian economy is in shambles and the government does not have anything to give the citizens in the form of a welfare state. If the decent grows in Saudi Arabia, the monarch will behave just like Assad. The main threat to the internal security of Arab states is the Shites, where all the monarchs are Sunnis. The rift between the Shites and Sunnis is increasing in conflicts with Syria and Iran. Before the Arab Spring appear in Saudi Arabia, the Arab War with Iran is a possibility.
Yeah I know we are from the different religions,different places,and
we all have different state of mind,everyone is talking about freedom
freedom !! I am asking what is freedom for human being,who decides it?
we people?or government or there will be some theory about freedom?
I am asking when you see trees, sky, animals, stars, sun, moon,
birds,flower,bees etc, what you think who created these things,Human
??
never,Everything is created by GOD,if God created these things,then
surely he has given you something that tells you about
everything(Freedom,Do and Don't,Financial system,women rights men
right and so many other things).Please try to find out,then only we
can know the exact meaning of freedom,and then you will decide what is
right and what is wrong.
Saudi Arabia is a land of contradictions. You could drive your Cadillac to the main mosque to see a beheading or go to the glitzy shopping mall for coffee at Starbucks where the male and female customers are segregated by law and the cane. You could be in a Sony showroom debating on the TV to purchase, only to be shooed out as they have to close the shop for prayers. Saudi Arabia is a place where the muslims become more muslims and the rest of us feel marginalised.
With many young Saudis travelling to the western world for education and the females empowered by education, it is only a question of time before the opening up starts. Whether there will be an Arab Spring or not depends entirely on how the government reacts. There are still enough die-hards who cling to their Wahabi roots but the current Arab News and Saudi Gazettes also have subtle letters advocating and asking more freedom.
The change, and how it happens, will be the perogative of the Saudis and not the expats
We as Indians should not talk about freedom, because we in every way
enjoy it after Britishers left the country.. We have the freedom to
express whatever we want about whomever we want whenever we want where
ever we want it. A reader just said about Mayawati and what she has
done. Imagine taking a politician's name in Saudi or even in Kingdom
of Bahrain or any GCC state and stating what he or she has done. As
one reader said, in Saudi his head would have rolled out in a public
ceremony and if he was in Bahrain, he would be in a 6x6 Cell with just
one tubelight 24hours a day for the rest of his life. If you are
talking about freedom even little freedom like women driving a car is
big for women out there because we don't have such a rule. Imagine one
day the Government of India states that "Women are not allowed to
Drive, Work or do any kind of economic contribution to the Indian
Economy" or a man and a woman cannot talk to each other unless they
are blood related directly. R u Free Now
Yes I agree with a writer above when he talks about Freedom. The freedom of expression we Indians really cherish. And the same we so oftenly use when our near dear ones loose life because of no place in dingy govt hospitals, we use when we meet a fatal accident because of ditch in the road, we use when trains make accidents, we use when police behaves like king, we use when we get rejected in jobs because of caste, religion, language, region etc and the list is endless.
I do believe inspite of all its shortcomings Saudi has far better infrastructure and welfare state minus freedom of expression. And democratic countries like ours inspite of all our shortcomings have free air to breathe and freedom to express and profess. Everybody to its own. And a disclaimer, I am an Indian staying in India.
This is a good country for Muslims(See the names of the above readers are mostly Muslims).For people following other religions it is a jail.Comforts of all sorts you get in KSA but there is no freedom of expression, freedom of living particularly for women.Anything suppressed has to explode is a natural process in the world.We do not know the if the kettle is boiling or on the verge of explosion as the people are allowed to express in public the same.
I completely agree with Satish Marathe. Never compare India with Islamic
countries where every country is unstable under the oppressive regimes
of the mullah's and maulana's.
Mother India is awakening....will guide the whole world...
Sir, Whatever is reported should reflect the complete sides. I lived in KSA for 29 years. Safe, clean and Healthy place to live. Govt is spending huge wealth on infrastructure, Industrial development, Human resource. Young saudis are supported heavily whereby they don't require to approach banks for their higher studies abroad. Look at out nation. We dont have even the basic needs. no good roads, huge shortage of electricity, sanitation etc. Saudi Monarch is doing the best for his country comparison our democratic rulers. You can be safe and travel without any fear from one end to another with family. Is that viable in India??. what a person require? food, clothe, shelter and a decent and fear free living. Saudi govt is providing the best. What i have observed is Saudi Arabia is changing with caution which is a good sign rather than sudden which may lead to disasters. King Abdallah is a great and a respected King today even among Shias who is looking after the welfare of Saudis.
Saudi Arabia has one major potential problem which has not been dealt with either by Gulshan or the other correspondents who have commented. That is the demographic explosion and related lack of opportunities. Since the oil boom of the early 70's, Saudi population has grown at a very high rate. The relatively good health care provided to their citizens has meant that life expectancy too has increased and the net result is that population growth has outstripped GDP growth. On a per capita GDP basis Saudi was a far more affluent country in the late 70's and 80's. Today, it is way down the list. The education system there has been so highly religion oriented that most of lower middle class and below youth are not capable of taking on productive employment. Finding them jobs is a dilemma faced by the govt. Before someone starts saying they know better because they lived in Saudi, let me assure you that I lived for a total of over thirty years in the GCC including Saudi Arabia.
I have lived in Saudi for the last two years and found that most of what the writer talks about true. However, an uprising seems unlikely. The rich n affluent don't start a revolution, and most here are just that. I had heard about, never seen, poor Saudis (at least poor according to Asian standards). So, i went ahead and watched the documentary mentioned in this article. The narrator talks to a few Saudis in some poor neighborhoods in Riyadh. He talks to three different families in this documentary and most of them were poor because they were all over-sized families. One had two wives and 11 kids, the other had 20 people along with his divorced daughter and her kid and the third was a mother of 6 children. Even a rich bloke would turn poor with those family sizes. I guess the documentary maker missed a point.
The author has just compiled news from western media. No one can analyze the future of saudi political and geographical map just by looking into the events of 50 years, it requires a careful study of last 500 years of activities around present KSA and arabian peninsula.
The author's observation is reflecting his political knowledge gathered from day to day BBC and CNN news which is more interested in influencing unstable government in Arab World. Each country is has its own unique loyalty towards the rulers. But the author also wanted to anticipate the unstable government in Saudi Arabia. Upraises started where the ruler thing about himself and not the people. But, author elaborates his views of the Saudi Arabia geography nature and government ambitious taking care of its citizens. If citizen take care of good living it would not leads to major upraises. Shia problems is Global problems known for their aggressive nature comparing to Hitler's rule and none can satisfy the Hitler. Every country finds its own fate.
Please do not compare India with Arab and Islamic countries. We are on our own after 800 years of invaders' yoke. We need time to re build ourselves. The 'Spring' is eternally at work in India. Pl have patience.
Saudi Arabia, an oil-rich country which follows its own rules and strategies in the Arab World is going to face profound changes in the coming years.Only the future can tell us whether it will be good or bad.Hey! no countries are perfect. Each and every nation has its own drawbacks.
Nice theoretical analysis but I fully agree with Ramesh, India and the
other 'free democracies' should look inward. The chaos and utter anarchy in state governments and the way they run the states. Talking about the Springs, Arab or otherwise, wonder how it has escaped the Arab Monarchies but reached US, witness the recent and still continuing Wall Street protests in the US. So much for equality and freedom?! It is true Saudi Arabia needs some reforms, mainly in Education and the structures around it, but it is way better than most other 'free' countries who should be more worried about the Springs.
A writer above praises life in Saudi Arabia while harshly castigating the conditions in India. He may be right, and luckily for him he is in India and can write almost whatever he likes and the worst that would happen is he would be ignored. If he were to write stuff like that in Saudi, his head would roll. Literally. What happened to “Give me freedom or give me death?” What about Bharatiyar's famous poems about liberty?
It is pity that the emancipation of women is linked with her being allowed to drive or not. Saudi Arabia is the safest place for a women in the entire world. A woman in Saudi Arabia can walk freely alone in night without fear of being molested. The youth (especially through Saudization) is well established and happy. The Shia problem is blown out of proportion by the western media. Except for sporadic incidents peace always prevails in the Eastern province.
Mr. Gulshan you would be disappointed to know that the chances of Saudi spring is almost nil, because there is already spring in Saudi Arabia. Saudi is not like Libya or Egypt. Saudi is rich and its citizens are extremely affluent. And most important thing is that they love their king dearly.
I have been living in Saudi Arabia for the past 14 years and i know better than most of the people who are commenting here. Except the false propaganda of western media everything is pleasant in Saudi Arabia, even its summer.
I doubt very much that there will be any spring in Saudi Arabia. If anyone even dreams about revolution all the people sorrounded by him will be executed without any trial. Probably they would have executed scores of people last year which may not be known to the world. Since it is the most oppressive Islamic regime in the world, unless the entire world goes war against them, it will continue to exploit the female gender and minorities. As long as US dominated the international affairs which is likely to be for another 50 years, I am sorry to say that Saudi citizens can't enjoy freedom or human rights which I thinks more important than waterr and food.
I have been working in saudi arabia since last decade and its highly impossible there is any immediate threat to government here except from some eastern provinces cities like qateef and awamiyah.But the youth of the country is frustrated and most them didnt have good job.Ofcourse there is widespread poverty in different level.
This article is loaded with prejudice and bias.It does not throw light on the postive side of the Kingdom and its people.The young generation are well informed and educated.Except driving,women are better off in many ways.The standard of living in the Kingdom is much better than the rest of the developed/developing world.In the name of freedom what have the other countries achieved??. Look at our performance in India.Even after 60+years of being independent,we are not able to provide clean potable/drinking water despite having many rivers which can be harnessed.Education,healthcare, rural and urban sanitation is pathetic leading to widespread diseases.Caste system and untouchability is rampant.Look at what Mayawati did with precious state resources- erected statues of her self in parks and memorials for 10000 crores of Tax payers money when over 500 babies/ children died in UP of encephalitis for want of health care.Look at what is happening in West Bengal.Let us look inward instead.
I was working in Saudi for 20 odd years. I think that any change in Government is highly impossible given the general disinterest of majority of citizens due to various factors like lack of any organised form of activities, generally high standard of living and deep sectararian divide in the society.
Saudi Monarchy will continue the way they are So Long as U.S.A has
their needs.Monarchy need not fear of any uprisals as the U.S.Intelligence keep them in the loop.The Kingdom has embarked on a Massive House Construction programme for the citizens and many new initiatives have been taken to satisfy the Majority Community there.The Hardliners still hold sway on many of the policies and the ruling elite cannot afford to be indifferent to them.Unlke Bahrain the Kingdom has a very wide net work among the people and
they NEED NOT depend on IMPORTED Police Officials from other countries.
Saudi Arabia is a classic example of how, scratching the American back
gets you protected all the way, works. Saudi was a petro-gold mine for
the US. But the US citizens who voted all the while without asking questions about oppressive regimes are either ignorant or uninterested. For example - while lot of Asians and Africans have been executed for crimes including relatively smaller ones like non-violent burglary, not a single American or Brit or Australian was executed. Even convicted murderers from these countries get get "pardoned" - what a joke.
Rev. Dr. Martin Luther Kinjg, Jr. said, "Freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed. And further he said, "Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. And so we must straighten our backs and work for our freedom. A man can't ride you unless your back is bent". The whole world bears a shared responsibility in this situation, but ultimately only the people of Saudi Arabia can free themselves.
It is clear thhat Saudi Arabia and other Arab monarchies are moving at a slow but steady pace towards constitutional monarchy much as some smaller European nations have done, or places like Thailand, England, Japan. This process took in some cases more than 200 years, and considering all the Arab states are less than 100 years old, they have made measurable progress. The difference being between them and Arab military dictatorships is the relative level of prosperity, attention to social problems, access to education and advancement, greater openness of discourse. Far from perfect, yet I doubt there will be a violent uprising as long people feel incremental progress is made.
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