The Maldives remains in crisis after President Abdulla Yameen imposed emergency on February 5, following the Supreme Court overturning the imprisonment of his political rivals. Among them is a former Maldivian President and leader of the opposition, Mohamed Nasheed, who wants India to intervene in the situation. In a wide-ranging interview conducted over many days as political developments in the Maldives unfold, Mr. Nasheed, who is with the Maldivian Democratic Party, says he believes that the emergency is not the biggest crisis the Maldives faces. He lists China’s “land grab” and the threat of the Islamic State (IS) as bigger challenges. Excerpts:
The situation in the Maldives appears to be fluid, with the Yameen government’s decision on the emergency. However, given that it appears to control both the judiciary and the parliament, has the opposition run out of options?
The government is unable to extend the state of emergency legally, because they don’t have the 43 MPs in the Majlis that must vote in favour of it. This means that the emergency, and any extension to it, is illegal. It also means that any actions taken by the government or security forces using emergency powers are illegal. Meanwhile, the Chief Justice and another Supreme Court Justice have been illegally detained. This means anything decided by the remaining SC justices is invalid. President Yameen is ruling down the barrel of a gun. There is zero legitimacy to anything he is doing.
India has asked that the government abide by the court’s original ruling and lift the emergency. What is your reaction to that?
I welcome the statement by the Ministry of External Affairs. I urge the government to fully comply with it.
The government has offered multiparty talks as well. How do you respond to that?
We would like to see the government create an environment that is conducive to talks. It is very difficult for us to sit down while the Chief Justice is in jail, other judges are in jail, the former President is in jail, and all political leaders are in jail, and there is emergency rule. So, we would like President Yameen to create an environment where both sides can trust each other and sit down [for talks]. But, at present, the general view is that President Yameen is trying to buy time. So, when we sit down to try to find a solution, we do want the international community to underwrite talks. The United Nations should be engaged in them as well.
There is a whole host of things that have to be done now before we sit down. Even a month ago… we were quite willing to sit down without any conditions. But now [Mr. Yameen] has dragged the situation down so much, it is very difficult to talk.
You’re saying he must revert to the status quo ante. What else would it take for you to feel comfortable to enter into these talks?
For instance, the Supreme Court ruling [dismissing charges against nine political opposition leaders] cannot be part of political talks.
How sure are you of your strength in the Majlis? You had started a process to impeach the Speaker that didn’t succeed. And the ruling Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) claims it has a majority in the House.
Let’s do it then — let’s have all our MPs in and let’s have a vote. We clearly have a parliamentary majority. And we believe there are several members of the PPM who are not happy with the status quo and who do not want to support what President Yameen has done. So I think we will have more than the 44 required for a majority. It may be 55.
And if elections take place, will the opposition be united? Will your coalition include leaders like President Yameen’s former Vice President Ahmed Adeeb, or businessman Gasim Ibrahim, who are accused of attempted murder and terror?
Well, the coalition is between all the parties, not individuals. It will have the Adhaalath Party, the Jumhooree Party, and the PPM that is led by [former] President Gayoom and the Maldivian Democratic Party.
You have appealed to India to send an envoy to the Maldives. What is it that you want India to do?
I think India must be on the ground in Male with an envoy and try to ensure that President Yameen relents. My view is that India has a number of other tools and I believe India has the imagination to use them. I have never asked for boots on the ground.
But you have used the term gunboat diplomacy, which evokes war scenarios. That sounds quite drastic.
No. In fact, gunboat diplomacy doesn’t mean an attack; it means a show of strength. I feel we are at a defining moment in the Indian Ocean and we must depart from the past. There is an effort on to change the state type in the Maldives… to move from democracy back to dictatorship, using money power. So, what I am saying is not drastic. If, in August 2018, President Yameen is elected unopposed, the Maldives will go into at least 10 years of autocratic rule, and after that I don’t think India or any other country will be able to pull us out of it. We have always seen India as a net provider of security and safety in the region, for the past 600 years. So, we mustn’t lose the moment.
Do you see the Maldives becoming an area of contestation, buffeted by the roles that India, China and the U.S. now play in the Indian Ocean?
Yes, we seem to be a bit sandwiched there. The U.S., however, seems to be looking more and more inwards, and we don’t feel they are willing to exert their power in the ocean, and have outsourced their policy to others. So, India remains in the best position to help us.
What do you think will happen next?
I think Mr. Yameen is trying to get the Chief Justice to resign, so he will have the emergency rule until he is able to achieve that. The Chief Justice’s family told me that he remains strong, and I am hopeful he will not resign. If he doesn’t resign, I think the emergency will carry on.
In 2012, you too had ordered the detention of a judge who gave bail to an Islamist group that had defaced some statues during the SAARC summit. The accusation against you is that when you were in power, you did the same thing.
Well, power does have this sense of continuity. As a leader, I came in after decades of single party autocratic rule, and some systems remained strong. You can topple a dictator, but it is very difficult to uproot dictatorship. Yes, if I could go back in time, I wouldn’t have done that. We were very young in democracy; our political party was only 12 years old. But yes, given a chance, I would have done otherwise.
Despite all this, you have often said that the real crisis in the Maldives is not dealing with dictatorship. Describe the situation you see there, and what is of deepest concern to you.
Yes, you are right, this is not the real crisis in the Maldives. I have been tortured twice; I have spent the good half of my adult life in jail. But I’m afraid this is not the real crisis. The real crisis in the Maldives springs from two recent developments. First, the development of a state within the Maldives by the IS. Second, attempts by emerging powers to change state type, with a view to drive land grab. During the last 40 years, Saudi Arabia has propagated a very narrow version of Islam that has created a breeding ground for jihadi movements. We are now in a very worrying situation where the Maldives has sent the most number of people per capita than any country to fight for the IS. Hundreds of Maldivians have joined jihadi groups. This could not have been achieved without a very solid network in the Maldives. At present, the issue becomes a crisis as the IS is being flushed out of Syria and the Levant. They are coming home to the Maldives.
But also, a far more sophisticated attack on the Maldives is happening without a single shot being fired. Although land grabs are occurring worldwide, they are more common in countries where the protection of human rights is poor. Due to a combination of international and domestic drivers, the Maldives has become a flourishing land-grab paradise. Without firing a single shot, China has grabbed more land than what the East India Company had at the height of the colonial era. They have weaponised foreign direct investments. Instead of rifles, bayonets and cartridges, the weapons in the new colonial arsenal are bribery, corruption and dubious investments. I don’t have anything against foreign direct investment, per se. But there is a process that must be followed: there should be open tenders, competitive bidding, and democratic scrutiny.
You were President for four years. During your tenure, you allowed the Chinese mission to be set up and invited Chinese business. Why didn’t you do anything then?
In 2007, President Gayoom visited China and appointed a Maldivian Ambassador there. In our government I had no choice but to allow that. In India, there seems to be a trust deficit about us. But establishing an embassy doesn’t mean that we were also facilitating land grabs.
India was the only country in the region, minus Bhutan, which didn’t join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). What must India do to counter China’s troublesome, but obviously attractive, influence in South Asia?
It’s not about deep pockets. Look, in the past, the Maldives became a middle-income country, primarily through development loans from the State Bank of India. And people in the Maldives don’t forget that. It’s not about how deep your pockets are but how you run the process. India has the ability to provide more sustainable loans for Indian Ocean countries, and that is where it has an edge.
If you were to come to power, you may be able to reverse the crisis with the land grab. But how would you reverse the IS problem?
Well, first you have to tackle the problem internally, as that is how radicalisation works. How did IS take over a big city like Mosul? Because first they eat it from the inside, they go deep and spread their ideas inside, so when they attack, no one counters it. And my fear is, that process is already under way in the Maldives.
