The operation to > recapture Raqqa in Syria launched by a U.S.-backed coalition of Kurdish and Arab fighters is bound to increase the military pressure on the Islamic State, which is already under attack in Mosul, its power centre in Iraq. The Raqqa offensive has long been on the cards. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) finally moved their troops to the city’s defence lines after getting weapons and the clearance from the U.S. As in the case of the battle for Mosul where the U.S. provides air cover to the Iraqi forces and Shia militias, in Raqqa it will provide assistance to the SDF. The U.S. strategy is to choke the IS from both sides, and its partners on the ground seem ready to take the high risk of attacking the group’s strongest bases. Over the past year the Kurdish fighters have been consistently effective in ground battles against the IS. Most of the major territorial losses of the IS in Syria — be it Kobane, Tal Abyad or Manbij — were at the hands of the Kurds. The jihadist group, which once had direct access to the Turkish border, has now retreated to its core in Syria, stretching from Raqqa to Deir Ezzour. Against this background, the SDF clearly has an upper hand. The IS will also find it challenging to defend two of its most important cities at the same time. But that doesn’t mean that the SDF will have an easy walk into Raqqa.
The SDF is certain to face strong resistance. Raqqa is one of the first cities the IS captured; it has in place a ferocious, ideologically charged and battle-ready team to build a strong defence. As the ongoing Mosul battle shows, breaching the IS defence lines will take time and also lives. Raqqa has a population of about 2.2 lakh. Major air-borne campaigns to help the SDF advance on the ground will be risky and could result in large civilian casualties. The IS also uses human shields to stop ground advances of enemies. But the most pressing challenge the SDF faces is the response from Turkey. Raqqa is a Sunni-populated town. Turkey is opposed to the SDF taking over Raqqa as a major constituent of the coalition is the Kurdish militia, the People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkey sees the YPG as the Syrian unit of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which it calls a terrorist force. The dilemma that the U.S. faces is one of bringing both the YPG and Turkey on the same side of the battle for Raqqa. Turkey had in the past played dubious games with the IS. If it decides to do that again now, the war on the IS could be derailed.
