On the credit side of his long political ledger, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been able to carry with him most of his party’s State legislators through his flip-flops. Whether he made or broke alliances, whether with the Bharatiya Janata Party or the Rashtriya Janata Dal, a majority of the Bihar unit of the Janata Dal (United) stayed with him. The only blot in his drama-filled copybook so far is the revolt of senior leader Sharad Yadav , who took some of the moral sheen away from the attempt to portray the break-up of the ‘grand alliance’ with the RJD and the Congress as a principled stand against corruption. Indeed, Mr. Yadav, in describing the dissolution of the alliance as a betrayal of the people’s mandate of 2015, has pressured Mr. Kumar into dropping all pretence and formally joining the National Democratic Alliance of the BJP. The prospect of ministerial berths at the Centre might have persuaded some of the JD(U)’s Members of Parliament to go along with Mr. Kumar, but Mr. Yadav appears to have generated some political momentum on his own. With the formalisation of the split, the JD(U) could be in danger of losing its election symbol, the Arrow. Mr. Yadav has made it clear he is not leaving the party he helped found, and led for some time.
A BJP-JD(U) electoral alliance is formidable, but if the 2015 Assembly election proved anything, it was that the RJD retained its core support base. Mr. Yadav knows he can retain his relevance in Bihar’s politics by siding with the RJD’s Lalu Prasad. The series of corruption cases against him and his family members notwithstanding, Mr. Prasad, with his own brand of backward class identity politics and wooing of the minority community vote-bank, remains a vote-catcher in Bihar. The present turn in the State’s politics presents an opportunity for Mr. Yadav to strike out on his own, and find a niche for himself. To go along with Mr. Kumar at every turn would have cramped the political space for Mr. Yadav at the national level. Also, in spite of what he likes to believe, Mr. Kumar might have played into the hands of the BJP. At the time of the next Lok Sabha election, the BJP will most likely call the shots in seat apportioning and constituency selection. Mr. Kumar needs the BJP more than the BJP needs him. Without an alliance partner, Mr. Kumar might just sink; the RJD-Congress combine is sure to take the anti-BJP political space. Thus, in making his decision Mr. Yadav seems to have factored in a possible souring of Mr. Kumar’s relations with the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo. The prospect of an immediate ministerial berth was probably weighed against the possibility of long-term political marginalisation.
