The interest in the monsoon can sometimes be obsessive and is a measure of the extent to which these rains rule the tempo of life in this country. The twists and turns that a rainy season inevitably takes are carefully scrutinised for portends of its outcome. This year, amidst a gloomy economic outlook, with a rupee that has sharply depreciated and prices heading the other way, such concerns are all the greater. Using a statistical model, the India Meteorological Department had predicted in mid-May that the monsoon would set in over Kerala on June 1 with an error bar of four days. So, when the monsoon appeared to be lagging, questions inevitably came to be asked. To the relief of all, the meteorological agency was able to declare on June 5 that the monsoon had at last arrived. The rain-bearing clouds will go on to cover the whole country in the coming weeks, ending the reign of oppressive summer temperatures. The monsoon generally reaches Kerala around June 1. Data for the years from 1901 to 2000 show the onset occurring as early as May 11 (in 1918) and as late as June 18 (in 1972). However, in about half those years the monsoon got in between May 28 and June 5. More importantly, the date of onset says little about how the monsoon will fare. Despite its early arrival, the 1918 monsoon ended in a severe drought. The monsoon of 1983, on the other hand, which sauntered in on June 13, went on to provide the country with ample rain.
Now that the monsoon has come, its progression northwards to cover the rest of the country could well occur in spurts, sometimes moving forward swiftly and at other times dawdling infuriatingly. In every monsoon, rains are not evenly spread either spatially or in time. Some places receive too much rain and get flooded while other parts of the country get too little. Active phases can be interspersed with periods when the rains weaken. Breaks in the monsoon, when large swathes of the country receive little or no rain for prolonged periods, are always worrying. What happens in the Pacific Ocean could have a considerable impact on how this year's monsoon fares. The below average temperatures that prevailed in the equatorial waters of that ocean, known as a La Niña and which is generally beneficial for the Indian monsoon, has dissipated. There is concern that an El Niño, with a warming of the equatorial Pacific that often leads to less rainfall over India, could emerge to take its place. In a recent speech, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee observed that a normal monsoon would help propel an economic recovery for the country. One hopes that this is the sort of monsoon we have this time.
Keywords: monsoon rains
@Aparna Gunjikar
Superb Insight and Analysis about the article.
Very True..
Super Like....
Today, all these environmental woes are due to several reasons that
are inter-related. Firstly tempo of our alarming population and above
it our negligence towards our nature. Its not only our government
which is responsible but all of us are responsible for this bellicose
way of nature. We are so blindly following the money that we just
forgot our basic requirement i.e. water.
Today whole world is facing water crisis and if appropriate measures
are not taken by all of us then there would be more severe outcomes.
Delay in rain,increasing temperature, etc. all these are portend for
future instability.
There is no doubt that we have disturbed nature's cycle but lets hope
that we all should resuscitate before defunct of our lively resources.
The article surely does specifiy what the 'common' man thinks and speaks of the monsoon and its rather volatile nature with respect to its arrival. However, does it highlight any practical way through which the govt can reduce the dependence? I do not think so. Yes a lot needs to be done like building more dams and water-conservation etc but these have already been advised by so many experts. Please bring innovation in your analysis, like suggesting new techniques adopted by other countries or directly from the drawing board. Highlighting the same thing again and again surely doesn't help much as we have seen all these years.
Arrival of an early monsoon augurs well for various sectors,
predominantly agricultural and investment sector. Sensex soared by over
450 points the moment news of onset of monsoon was disseminated.
Certainly a fair ammount of rain brings cheers among the agragain community which is around seventy percent of the total population & lives on only around eighteen percent of the total GDP.Only a good monsoon cant catapult a sloth economy in safe place & would not be able to provide it with the much needed speed. A good monsoon if not translated into flood may alleviate pain inflicted by fertilzer subsidy cut, exorbitant price rise of pesticides & all other essential commodities of the agragain community but it cant rescue th e overall economy which is deceased by various policy loopholes ,corruption,lack of long term vision & inefficient framing & execution of the contigency plan.
While man is certainly at the mercy of nature, it is a testimony to the lack of
progress we have made in agriculture that we are still largely dependent on the
monsoons to see us through. True, India is largely an arid country, but our
inability to switch to crops requiring less water (note the dependence on rice), lack
of efficient irrigation methods and a non-existent irrigation system in off-season
leaves our farmers entirely at the mercy of the elements.
In addition, our population has exploded to about tenfold of what our land and
water resources could sustain and we are depleting and polluting available rivers
and groundwater at an alarming rate. All these things will make life only harder in
the future, especially if the monsoon fails.
Prediction of the strength and intensity of the monsoon is a difficult task and generally ends
up in an incorrect forecast. If the predictors cannot accurately estimate the onset of the
monsoon, it is apparent their forecast of the intensity is fallible too. Good monsoon augurs
well for the nation and economy having a positive impact on agriculture. One important
point is rains may come heavily in certain parts while other parts receive too little. This can
create a bit of imbalance. Ons can only hope that rainfall is good across the board with all
areas receiving a fair share. But this is too hard to forecast.
It is very important that India gets necessary and sufficient amount of rain as Indian income mainly comes from the field of Agriculture, as the economy of the country is dwindling in past,rains become a great boon to the country to dispel scorching heat and the heat caused by the dwindling economy.Its time for India to breathe in some water and revitalise the agriculture economy and there by increasing the country's income.
Lets all pray the rain god for quick and efficient deliverance of rains and help INDIA.
On reading this article, it is apparent that the country has not done much progress from 1918! Even then the farmers looked heavenwards for a shower of grace as they do today. Nothing has changed. One wonders where has all the technology, progress, growth that we are so fond of talking about has been stacked. Somewhere during the journey, have we lost track of our priorities and have been climbing the wrong trees? Kosi still remains to be a sorrow of Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka fight over Kaveri, Telangana remains barren in-spite of 2 major rivers flowing through the land, the farmers in many parts of the country continue to kill themselves. While all this is happening, our governments are deliberating on the interlinking of rivers. The money spent on the surveys and studies on this subject, would have actually got the job done and ended our water woes. While we wait for the rain clouds, we postpone reopening of schools are there is no water. Welcome to Incredible India!
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