A positive agrarian outlook for the next decade cannot allow any quarter for complacency in a nation that is home to the world's largest number of farmers, as also the largest number of people who face food insecurity. This would be a fairer reading of >Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023 , a joint report of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization, with a special feature on India. The projection is for sustained production and consumption of agricultural commodities in the country, leading to increases in per capita availability during the next 10 years, while resource pressures may halt absolute growth rates. Coinciding with this phase more or less is India’s emergence as a leading exporter of agricultural products, with its trade surplus growing six-fold between 2000 and 2013 to $22 billion. All of this is a tacit reference to the rise in public investment in agriculture, massive increase in credit flows and upgradation of rural infrastructure, consequent to important corrective measures envisaged in the Mid-Term Appraisal of the Tenth Five-Year Plan. The OECD-FAO report also notes the >substantive role of India’s wide-ranging subsidies and support prices for foodgrains — an issue that has acquired immense currency in the wake of New Delhi’s stance at the World Trade Organization negotiations.
No less relevant is the allusion to a shift to diets rich in protein, sugar and fats thanks to rising incomes. The five per cent additional excise levy on aerated drinks announced in the budget should be backed by aggressive public campaigns to raise awareness of the health risks associated with the consumption of fast food, especially among poor communities. The awareness created by the ongoing public interest litigation petition in the Delhi High Court seeking a ban on these products in schools could set a critical standard nation-wide and save future generations from a rising epidemic. Whereas the global forecast for the continuation of the current run of lower prices of cereals over the short term is encouraging, prices are expected to stay higher than they were before the 2007-08 global meltdown. The demand for animal feed and biofuels would similarly exert pressure on foodgrain availability for human consumption at affordable prices. The developing countries are said to account for 75 per cent of additional agricultural output over the next decade. The FAO estimates that growth in agriculture is five times more effective in reducing poverty than growth in any other sector. Therein lies a message for the region’s political leadership and for global stability in general. The food riots of the recent past in parts of the world ought not to return ever again.
