Brinkmanship in Maharashtra

September 23, 2014 01:47 am | Updated November 16, 2021 05:47 pm IST

Common sense would dictate that the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena have more to lose than gain by >breaking their alliance when so close to an expected victory in the Maharashtra Assembly polls. They have been together during difficult times, losing two consecutive elections to the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party. Now, when they are the clear favourites to win, there can be no real reason to part ways. However, short-term interests are often in conflict with long-term interests. After having beaten back the Congress in the Lok Sabha election, the BJP realises it can grow any further only at the expense of its regional ally, the Shiv Sena, which too plays the Hindutva card with the voters. If the gains of the Lok Sabha election are not to be surrendered in the Assembly polls, the BJP will necessarily have to make more room for itself within the alliance with the Sena. To be the perennial junior partner of the Sena cannot be a very appealing prospect for the BJP, especially after it became the first party since 1984 to win a majority of its own in the Lok Sabha. Thus, the pressure is on the national party to bargain hard to the point of threatening to break ties.

But just as the BJP needs to expand its base in Maharashtra, so does the Sena feel the compulsion to protect its territory. Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray knows very well that if the BJP is given an inch, it would take a foot; he cannot easily forget how some leaders of the BJP had tried to build bridges with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, the breakaway group of the Shiv Sena led by his cousin, Raj, before the Lok Sabha election. The BJP can easily encroach on the Hindutva constituency of the Sena; the difficulty is in harnessing the Marathi chauvinist vote. If the Shiv Sena does indeed break away, the party would surely turn to the MNS, which would only be too happy to play the role of a junior partner. Moreover, the Shiv Sena is uncomfortable with the BJP’s refusal to publicly endorse Uddhav Thackeray for the post of Chief Minister. To leave the issue of chief ministership until after the results are declared would mean that the party with more members in the Assembly would stake claim for the post. The Sena, therefore, wants to limit the number of seats the BJP can possibly win, and is unwilling to give up even those seats outside its strongholds for the national party to contest from. Political strategy dictates that both the Sena and the BJP would have to find a way to reconcile their short-term goal of coming to power in Maharashtra, with their long-term plan of expanding their base in the State. If the Sena-BJP alliance breaks up and the Congress and the NCP were also to go their separate ways, the Maharashtra election would be wide open.

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