Vaulting ambition and deep desperation are very different states of mind, but they could sometimes lead to similar kinds of action. If the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena parted ways because of their high stakes in Maharashtra, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party charted out their separate courses because they had little to lose in any case. Soon after the saffron alliance came apart, the NCP broke away from the Congress, throwing the electoral contest to the Assembly wide open. The Shiv Sena could not compromise on the post of Chief Minister for its pramukh Uddhav Thackeray, and on its status as the senior partner of the alliance; the BJP needed to spread its wings in Maharashtra to make the most of its Lok Sabha election victory. Neither was thus risk-averse in a high-stakes play, and the alliance could not hold. As for the NCP and the Congress, they had lost fighting the Lok Sabha election together, and going without an alliance in the Assembly election must have seemed a low-risk, worthwhile experiment in an otherwise hopeless game. The BJP was eager to eat into the Sena’s support base; and even if the best-case scenario of the party coming to power on its own does not materialise, there is always the option of reviving the alliance with the Sena post-election. The NCP surely thought its chances were better in a five-cornered contest with the BJP, the Shiv Sena, the Congress and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena than in a polarised battle. The NCP would also have calculated that, in the event of a hung Assembly it could make the most out of the few seats it was likely to win if it were free of the encumbrances of a pre-poll alliance with the Congress.
While the 2014 Assembly election is now an opportunity for the parties to test their individual strengths, alliance-free elections are surely not going to be the norm in Maharashtra. Realignments are likely soon after the election, once the parties have subjected their pre-poll aspirations to a reality check in the Assembly election. Just as important as the question of who would form the next government are little matters waiting for resolution. Is the BJP now stronger than the Sena? Will the MNS replace the Sena as the BJP’s ally? Is a BJP-NCP alliance possible? Is the Congress at its lowest point in Maharashtra? In the long term, Maharashtra 2014 might be remembered for the answers to these questions, no matter which party or combination of parties happens to form the government. At the very least, Maharashtra 2014 might separate the contenders from the pretenders, and reassess the fragmentation of the vote that followed the splits in the Congress and the Sena. If not mergers, the post-election scenario will certainly witness realignments.
