By-election results are not always pointers to the outcome of a general election. However, what Andhra Pradesh went through was not a by-election to one seat or two, but a mini-general election to 18 Assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat. And the verdict was decisive: a sweep for the YSR Congress led by Jaganmohan Reddy, son of former Congress Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy. No matter how the results are read, the YSRC, which won in 15 Assembly constituencies and in the lone Parliamentary constituency, Nellore, will have to be seen as a frontline challenger to the Congress in the State in the 2014 general elections. Indeed, the results could encourage other Congress MLAs to shift allegiance to the Jagan Congress and thereby pose a threat to the very survival of the Kiran Kumar Reddy government. The Congress managed to win just two of the seats, and the Telugu Desam drew a blank. Parkal, the only constituency in the Telangana region that went to the polls, was taken by the Telangana Rashtra Samiti. Unlike the earlier sets of by-elections in the Telangana region, these were not in a geographically contiguous area. The constituencies were spread across 12 districts, some of them Congress strongholds. That the YSRC could perform well beyond YSR's home base in Kadapa district and the Rayalaseema region is surely noteworthy. Of course, a good chunk of the seats — to be specific, eight — are from this region, but the gains in Nellore, Prakasam, Guntur, West Godavari, Visakhapatnam, and Srikakulam districts demonstrate the YSRC's ability to expand its base. Moreover, in Parkal the YSRC finished a creditable second to TRS, an ominous sign for the TDP and the Congress.
Irrespective of the merits of the CBI's case against Jagan, the arrest of the YSRC leader on charges of corruption during the campaign period was, in public perception, a politically-inspired misadventure. To make matters worse, the Congress and the TDP, instead of attacking each other, chose Jagan as the prime target, unwittingly making the YSRC the frontrunner. Further, the Congress suffered the incumbency disadvantage twice over. The non-governance in the State was made worse by the hike in fuel prices and the failure of the Congress-led Centre to rein in inflation. While the YSRC still has some distance to cover before it can entertain visions of coming to power in Andhra Pradesh, the odds are stacked against the Congress. Without some corrective measures, the party will face an uphill task in 2014. Surely, the loss of Andhra Pradesh, a State which today accounts for the largest block of Congress MPs in the Lok Sabha, will have implications that go beyond the Deccan plateau.
The editorial has catalogued the factors but has done little analysis. It has rightly sounded warning bells to the powers in Hyderabad and in Delhi.
Rahul Gandhi did not indulge in his bravado and saved his skin thereby.
One more disadvantage for Congress is the absence of Navin Chawla at the EC. yet there were reports that some of his machines recorded any vote for Congress and were taken out.
Definitely ,It is being widely observed that either the Congress or
the Telugu Desam PartY, not acted actively to set the present
political affairs in order and also not guessed the pulse of the
People in the just concluded 18+1 By elections. The By election
results as early expected, shows that both parties seems to be not up
to the expectations and satisfaction of the People. With a massive
vote, YSR Congress Party under the strategic leader is emerging
positively and to move further to establish a trust vote with a
popular support of the people of Andhra Pradesh.
The outcome is a fitting tribute to the leader who spent most of his time in finding out solutions to the problems of the poor in general and that of the farmers in particular. The hardwork in convincing the voters and perfectly communicating to them what the late leader did too are responsible for a convincing and thumping win for the party. We need to wait and see what would happen to the outcome in 2014 as the political equations do change very surprisingly and frequently.
The election results reiterate the fact that the common man is more concerned with the roti-kapda-makan theme. In a predominantly agrarian economy like India, espcially AP, the vast majority of the populace are dependent on agriculture and the politicians such as Naidu, who are the poster boys of multinationals and corporates, ignore this very fact to eventually bite the dust. Dr.YSR had recognized this fact and made use of it to decimate the TDP in two consecutive polls. YSR added health security (arogyasri) and irrigation/drinking water (Jalayagnam) to the roti-kapda-makaan theme and became "peoples CM". The post YSR Cong. Govt. in seeking to destroy all traces of YSR Legacy, is commiting political suicide. This is being abetted by the TDP, and people have seen through the designs of both the parties, thereby giving YSRCP such a massive win. This is an indication of things to come in 2014...
Congress wins Delhi looses deccan Conquers Raisina looses writers' building wins over North looses south wins over Mamta looses to Jagan only one cheers for congress the victory for Pranab two worries for them distance from Mamta & loss to jagan.
YSRC is becoming a powerful force that could win the election in 2014 if the same popularity continues. The infighting within Congress has led to the formation of YSRC under the leadership of Jagan Mohan Reddy. While all the politicians by and large are corrupt it doesnt make sense to put Jagan Mohan Reddy behind the bars and this could have been possible only if the ruling party had initiated. Another point to note is Telugu desam drawing a blank. The signs for Telugu desam are ominous and whether it will ever return back to power is highly doubtful.
Both editorials in today's Hindu lack class which sets Hindu apart. it was like reading a tabloid. No real analysis on the background. The areas you mentioned outside kadappa are all where mega scams happened and the loot of state resources in gigantic proportions. It was no difficulty for the looters distributing a fraction of that money to voters. No mention of why loksatta or communist parties didn't even get deposits. No mention of Sakshi becoming extended pamphlet of Jagan's party. No mention of 50crores being seized (I imagine actual money traded would have been 10times this). Shame on Hindu for such a deploring editorial:(
Congress and TDP made surveys and got report that the results will be in favour of YSR congress , and anticipated so many MLAs from both parties will join to jagan .So there is a necessity to retain post of CM for Kiran (since congress losing progressively % votes and even loosing deposits)and there is necessity to retain cadre for Chandra babu naidu( since his party is a sinking ship as he has not won single seat in bypolls since 2009).
So these two parties plotted and arrested Jagan through CBI, this public realised and have shown soldarity thru votes.
This is a prelude to the general elections coming 2014.The Congress Party lost Credibility and it will face a complete defeat due to its anti-people Policies and mass scale corruption.
Elections in today's India are always a choice between two (or more) evils. If people are ever too ready to settle for the 'lesser' evil each time instead of rejecting outright ALL the evils, I dont see much hope for my country. I know I shall be polling 49'O' for a long, long time to come. God save my country!
The Andhra by-elections have once again shown that ordinary voters are not really concerned with corruption charges and are moved by sentiments. People either do not understand how our politicians have finessed the art of using public office (a Minster’s office) to make money for personal benefit and amassing wealth or are ready to ignore such conduct so long as the politicians solve their problems. There is a lesson for all citizens. We cannot blame the politicians and get away from our duty. We too are equally responsible for the sorry state of affairs today. Until we wake up and say that irrespective of who indulges in unfair practices such practices should never be regularized on the basis of election victories, nothing much would ever change.
Sir, AP people are masses voting nowadays. educated and youth are not able to see the damage to the state. rampant corruption,at higher level.inflation,flow of liquors unlimited to the masses led to this state for the downfall of present stage.No postmortem to explain. ysr calibre are increased and it is sign for unity of the converts.class should beware of this fact. he was commenting on even in power.seven hills while in power.
A fairly restrained editorial. A few factors I would like to add in: Costs are a Myth. What With Omnipresent Corruption in the Nation, the State perhaps needs large scale development, if corruption is an issue, then people would give precedence to Industrialization, Irrigation, Power, over costs - such as corruption. The Petty witch hunting of Jagan, Coupled with 70% power cut in the recent past, arrest of popular Industrialists has demoralized the large populace. perhaps people at large believe that jagan can further the cause of development as his DAD would, and TDP being seen as completely bankrupt in policy as well as performance, they found an Object alternative in The YSRCP. Thanks!
Agreed. But it is difficult for BJP too to retain their forts in North India as well as in Karnataka. So it's advantage regional parties not to the main opposition party. This will further complicate the political scenarion.
The two seats where congress won the elections is the result of mass betting. TDP leaders are the organizers of such huge bettings. To amash crores TDP asked its voters to vote for Congress and as a result TDP lost even deposit, though these are TDP strong hold regions. While in Parakala TRS won by a narrow margin -- does not show any sentiment -- here the sole objective of Congress was not to get votes to Konda Surekha, so they asked congress voters to vote for TRS. As a result Congress lost it deposit. This is politics of TDP & Congress. However, TDP minted crores through betting. Also, the results clearly show there was a match fixing between Congress & TDP depending upon the strengths and weakness of these parties.
A very well analysed piece leaving the reader little to comment upon. However,the Congress not only bungled in handling the Jagan matter but exacerbated by arresting him.That smacked of vendetta because of the timing.Anyway the Congress having burnt its bridges in AP by mishandling the Telangana and the rising of the son matters is going to find the going so tough that it may have only time to rue its actions with perhaps the loss of a large number of seats in the 2014 general elections.
The out-come of the By-elections in Andhra Pradesh was largely influenced by the sympathy wave that swept across the state following the arrest of Mr. Jagan in the DS case.Almost all parties went to the hustings with only one point agenda of corruption during the Y S Rajasekhar Reddy period.The vigourous election campaign by Mrs Vijayamma,wife of Rajasekhar Reddy and her daughter is a major factor for the sweep in the election.These results will definitely cause hiccups to the Congress leadership in the state.And the party High command, in stead of trying to find some scapegoats for the poor performance in the elections, must try to infuse some hope,discipline and young blood in to the party here.
Even with total support of the mainline electronic media (Sonia) Congress will not win elections unless the people are with it. The AP by-elections have shown that. The electronic media has almost totally ignored the massive defeat of (Sonia) Congress at the hands of the YSR Congress in the by-elections in AP, with the success of Sonia Congress in getting Mulayam to ditch Mamta giving them an opportunity to do so. Interesting days are ahead in Indian politics, that is for sure.
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