The Taliban have entered and are in control of the northern Afghan city of >Kunduz — the first time a major city has fallen to the movement — at least for now. According to latest reports, Taliban volunteers have been able to regain control of most of the city. The capital of Kunduz province, the city is 60 kilometers south of the Oxus river. Across the river is Tajikistan, connected by a bridge that is extensively used for both human and goods traffic.
The Taliban occupation of Kunduz may be short-lived as the regime of President Ashraf Ghani >will make every effort to miminise the fallout of this setback. The besieged insurgent group is also likely to be outnumbered in terms of both manpower and firepower.
Rustam Shah Mohmand Unfortunately for the Government in Kabul the fall of Kunduz — even if the city is recaptured and the Taliban driven out — has come at a most inauspicious time when the regime is confronted with new challenges. There is the growing menace of >Daesh (Islamic State), which is making inroads into some provinces largely on the back of substantial monetary inducements to new converts. The group targeted government forces in eastern Nangarhar province on September 26, inflicting casualties and sparking fears of a new wave of deadly confrontation.
Then there is the worsening security situation across the country. The lower house of Parliament has summoned the country’s interior minister and other officials to explain the reasons for what is widely seen as an inadequate response to deteriorating law and order.
And finally there is the apparent exodus of people — largely unemployed Afghan youth — joining West Asian refugees trying to enter Europe.
If the Taliban hold on to Kunduz , there is the fear of defections from the Army which could snowball into a bigger and dangerous movement of defections from both the military and police. More government functionaries could establish links with the resistance, leading to gradual collapse of the administrative machinery that could paralyse the country.
Mansour ascendant
One year into his presidency, President Ghani is facing a formidable crisis. On the other hand, the newly installed chief of the Taliban, Akhtar Mansour, has a feather in his cap that would bolster his standing and help to overcome any remaining resistance to his authority.
The Taliban and their chief would now adopt a more robust stance in the negotiations — if they are resumed any time soon for a settlement to the conflict. For the moment, however, the chances of the talks resuming and a consensus on the roadmap to a resolution of the conflict are remote.
Whether the worsening security environment would force yet another delay in the withdrawal of the U.S. forces, scheduled for end of 2016, remains to be seen. While President Obama would not like to leave Afghanistan in a mess at the end of his tenure, his options are equally fraught. . Extending the stay of most U.S. troops indefinitely and risking involvement in a perpetual conflict would diminish U.S. credentials. However, another military effort to weaken, demoralise and eliminate the resistance, will plunge the whole country into a deadly cycle of violence and shatter the American vision of rehabilitating a nation, torn asunder by their invasion in 2001.
The only prudent option is of mainstreaming the resistance on terms that are compatible with the aspirations of the broad majority of the people. For that to happen insistence on recognising or accepting the institutions — as they are constituted now — would have to be given up. The fact that Afghanistan is bigger than its Parliament or elected government has to be acknowledged as a first step towards meaningful negotiations. That could pave the way for a breakthrough.
In times like these statesmen of vision can play role. Former president Hamid Karzai could play a historic role in negotiating the terms for the mainstreaming of the resistance. It must be acknowledged that the fighting is not about a few offices or some positions in the government; it is about systems that are compatible with the beliefs, customs, traditions and aspirations of the people. An elected government is a reality. The existence of a viable, vigorous opposition and a movement for change premised on the departure of all foreign forces is also a reality. These two apparently conflicting realities have to be reconciled to create a framework for a genuine resolution.
(Rustam Shah Mohmand is former Interior Secretary and former Ambassador of Pakistan to Afghanistan)
