Congress, post-PRP merger, lost 62 per cent of their combined vote of 2009
The numbers in the by-elections in Andhra Pradesh indicate massive shifts. In 2009, the Congress won 16 of the 18 Assembly seats that went to the polls on June 12 this year. Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) won the other two. Add up the votes of these two parties in 2009 and on paper they seem an invincible combine. The two got a total of over 16 lakh votes in the 18 seats. Their combined vote was higher than that of the next force (Telugu Desam Party) by over 40,000 votes, in some cases even by 50,000. And remember that the PRP subsequently merged in the Congress. Yet, this time, their merged force won just two of those seats and lost 62 per cent of their combined vote of 2009. The TDP did not win a single seat but fared better in retaining its core vote. It lost around 11 per cent compared to its 2009 performance. The Congress (post-PRP merger) came second in six seats, third in nine and fifth in one (Parakal in Telangana, a seat it won in 2009). The Congress lost deposit in four seats.
The YSR Congress obtained more votes than the Congress and the TDP combined in each of nine of the 18 seats. Those are: Polavaram (ST), Prathipadu (SC), Ongole, Rajampet, Kodur (SC), Rayachoti, Allagadda, Anantapur (Urban), and Parakal. Its total vote across the 18 seats (and in the lone Lok Sabha seat) is also higher than that of the Congress-TDP totals taken together. In Rayadurgam, the (self-declared) richest candidate ever to have filed an affidavit (TDP's Deepak Reddy, Rs. 6,800 crore) lost by over 32,000 votes. Even Tirupati, Chiranjeevi's own seat which he resigned in March this year to go to the Rajya Sabha, was lost to the YSRC by nearly 18,000 votes.
In Nellore, the Congress, which won the Lok Sabha seat there in 2009 by nearly 55,000 votes, lost to the YSRC by over 2.91 lakh votes in a huge shift. The YSRC, which won 15 Assembly seats, took seven by margins of over 30,000. Those are: Polavaram, Udayagiri, Rayadurgam, Kodur, Rajampet, Allagadda and Rayachoti. (The last by over 55.000 votes). It won a further three by more than over 20,000 votes: Ongole, Anantapur (Urban) and Yemmiganur. And took three by margins of over 15,000: Prathipadu, Macherla and Tirupati. The TDP came second in nine seats and third in the remaining nine. The party came third in the Nellore Lok Sabha seat.
The result is due to enmass voting by uncommitted and unaware voters especially women.This happened due to anti Hindi agitation in TN,Telangana in AP,Nandigram in WB,Mandir-Mandal in UP,TDP floated by NTR on self respect of Telugu prajalu in 1983 though people of AP stood by Congress in 1977,negligence of agriculture sector and corrupt practices of TDP leaders in 2004 assembly elections,at national level in 1971,1977,1984 on the issue of GARIBI HATAO,EMERGENCY,ASSASINATION OF INDIRAJI.
Coming to AP YSR politically curbed Maoists by inviting for talks,weekened TRS with the help of Santosh reddy,succeded in not allowing Telangana Congress leaders to meet UPA chairperson Sonia.YSR attracted Sonia by naming almost all schemes and projects after late Rajivji and not pressing for important post in union cabinet though there were 32 MPs.
Taking this as advantage Jagan looted money as a CM's son,succeded in getting tickets to his men. Conspiring to get power he used sympathy
Politics is much more complex than addition and subtraction.
Several factors paved the way for YSRCP's victory.
1. Y.S.Raja Sekhara Reddy was/is precieved as the benefactor by people of lower middle class and below.
2. Free Power to Farmers was not forgotten, This was not a Congress scheme as it was not introduced in all Congress ruled states.
3. Fees reimbursement benifitted many students who were economically backward, they did not forget YSR. It was not there in other Congress ruled states.
4. Waiver of farm loans was not forgotten by small and marginal farmers.
5. Financial loans to women at Rs0.25 worked it's charm on women voters.
6. Congress party and governement in Andhra Pradesh are not functional.
7. Arresting Jagan Mohan Reddy just before elections back fired.
Jagan Mohaan Reddy and his team will carry this fight till 2014 irrespective of whether Jagan is in Jail or outside.
It is a do or die for YSRCP and TDP or Congress cannot match this fighting spirit.
If you take any polotician who will be corrupted some how(directly ,
in directly ), what people see is how much good has done to scocoty or
for themselves.People would have selected the best among the corrupted
politicins(chandra babu, jagan, sonia gandhi, chiru)
YSR had done so many good things to people, like 108, arogya
sree(saved so many lifes), fees reambursement (so many students are
studying Enginerringg, mca, mba with free of cost), free power to
farmers, farmer welfare programs ( loan cancellation, saved so many
farmers in AP), indiramma houses, pension schemes, still there are
many good things done to scocity.
If CBI probes the corrupted politicians properly all these
bastards(chandra babu, sonia gandhi, chiru, bosta satya narayana,
lagadapati ragagopal, ramoji rao etc, anyway jagan is in jail already)
should be in jail.its very strange that no one is worried/pointing
about the most powerful corrupted politicians(sonia gandhi, chandra
babu etc.).
Corrupt people will have corrupt leaders unless when they are ruled by
outsiders. The issue is whats going to happen now. I predict the
following.
1.Congress will drop cases on Jagan
2.He will be given cabinet berth at the center
3.Jagan will accept with a promise that he will be back to AP at the
helm.
5.Next election congress will sweep the polls in AP
Because of miss calculation of the present political affairs, both
Congress and TDP parties easily given a chance of swing of votes towards
YSRCP. Truly YSRCP is a break away group of Congress party and TDP might
have been benefited with this. But lost the chance of motivating the
voters towards and breakthrough the results in it's favor. Definitely
YSR party achieved the goal by winning 15+1 in it's own way of strategy.
The results speak of a very dangerous trend of voting for money and material. It is nothing but a case of mocking at and trivialising democracy. If this trend continues it would lead to a deluge and people will have a repent.
Dear Sainath, I read your editorial about CBI, Jagan and his alleged/perceived/real corruption. It is a good analysis. However If Congress or TDP to gain edge over Jagan party they need to be perceived at least less corrupt if not outright honest. People are smart they know who is spending what in elections hence people will always choose least worst option available to them as it happens
across the world in democracies But people like you are doing commendable job by putting pressure (highlighting their weaknesses as well as strong points) such that politicians are constantly reminded their priorities.Coming to current article everyone knows simple arithmetic will never work in politics but thanks for highlighting the glaring facts. right now YSR congress is able to cash in TDP's weakness that is the fact, in future only two parties will play for power whether that happens in next election 2014 or 2019 but surely it will happen my opinion is one among them will be YSR party.I enjoy your articles.
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