The U.K. and the European Union (EU) remain poles apart in their approaches to the former’s impending exit from the bloc. British Prime Minister Theresa May may be credited with the coinage of what has now become a political commonplace: “Brexit means Brexit.” But the rest of the bloc has painstakingly fleshed out its substance.
From the moment of the referendum outcome last June, European leaders have viewed the termination of Britain’s roughly four-decades-long membership of the bloc with resigned acceptance. Yet, they have remained steadfast on the stance that formal talks on the terms of withdrawal could not commence until London officially notified its decision under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Brussels circulated its draft negotiating guidelines within days of Britain triggering the exit clause on March 29. The bloc unanimously adopted that blueprint on Saturday. Not only does the text stipulate stringent conditions of departure; equally, it emphasises the need for an orderly, sequential process of its implementation. The guidelines, above all, aim to remove uncertainty at three levels. The foremost priority is to guarantee the rights and future of as many as 4.5 million EU and U.K. migrants resident in each other’s territory. These include Polish students in the U.K., British pensioners in Spain, Romanian nurses and doctors in Britain and engineers spread across different countries.
The second uncertainty relates to the programmes funded by the common budget. These concern the beneficiaries of the social fund for the least-qualified citizens, development assistance for the backward regions in the 28-nation bloc and common investments to address climate change and developing renewable energy. Brussels maintains that London must honour all these commitments it signed on to as an EU member.
A third uncertainty sought to be addressed in the guidelines is the implication for the union’s external borders arising from Britain’s withdrawal from the common customs union. The likely implication for the U.K. in this regard is the potential of a united Ireland inside the EU, in the event of a vote in Belfast on reunification with the Republic.
Ill-prepared U.K.
Against this evolving backdrop, there has been no evidence so far of a coherent U.K. negotiating strategy. London’s decision to quit the single market was really not an option given that cherry-picking on the four fundamental EU freedoms was never on the cards. Similarly, her European counterparts have cautioned Ms. May not to entertain illusions about concluding a comprehensive trade deal to coincide with the end of the March 2019 withdrawal deadline. Britain’s financial settlement to the bloc, estimated to be in the region of €60 billion, may similarly prove contentious.
Ms. May seems to have calculated that a massive majority in Westminster would somehow strengthen her hand vis-à-vis Brussels. But the election that is materially significant to the rest of the bloc is the presidential run-off in Paris on Sunday. One gets the impression that an ill-prepared U.K. will one day discover that it sleepwalked out of the EU.
