If Assembly elections in Kerala were held three months ago, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) would have won hands down. Whether enough has changed on the ground to alter this scenario is hard to gauge, but as the campaign reaches a crescendo, the State is witnessing a keen political battle. The Congress and the UDF are wringing water out of stone to recreate the momentum of the three months ago period, while the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is trying to rewrite Kerala's electoral history by returning to power and keeping the Left's southern foothold intact.
Over the last decade, Kerala has witnessed wild swings from one alliance to the other, giving the UDF and LDF huge margins of victory. In the 2001 Assembly election, the UDF scored a thumping win securing 99 seats (plus one independent seat) in the 140-member House. In 2006, it was the LDF's turn to return the compliment by the same margin. In the 2009 Lok Sabha election, the UDF hit back strongly, garnering 16 of the 20 seats.
As the 2.28 crore voters in the State make their choice on April 13, the question is whether Kerala will buck the decadal trend and throw up a photo finish.
Anti-incumbency has been a constant in Kerala Assembly elections. Although the ruling LDF does not appear to face an anti-incumbency wave — at least in relation to its governance record — it is locked against a highly charged UDF in the poll. The UDF has made it a habit to rip open the divisions in the ruling dispensation and expose the many contradictions between intent and practice. The UDF had recovered from the humiliating defeat of 2006 thanks mainly to the self-financing colleges row during the LDF's early days in office, the lottery row towards the final months of its tenure, and the schisms in the CPI(M) that have refused to go away. While the row over the self-financing colleges helped the UDF to claw its way back, the failed Munnar demolition drive helped it to consolidate its position.
The massive win in the 2009 Lok Sabha election signalled its return to the centre-stage. The panchayat-municipal elections in October 2010, in which the UDF won almost 60 per cent of the local bodies, was proof, if any were needed, that the UDF was racing ahead of the LDF in the final lap. However, a series of sudden developments, including the sentencing of former UDF Minister R. Balakrishna Pillai for one year's rigorous imprisonment for corruption, appeared to stop it in its tracks; to the surprise of all, 89-year-old Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan has been propelled back into the reckoning. As in 2006, there was a furore over the “denial” of a ticket to him, triggering sporadic demonstrations in his support; he was reportedly given the party ticket only after the CPI(M) Polit Bureau intervened.
Dogged pursuit
Mr. Achuthanandan had earned the wrath of the Opposition and some in his own camp because of his dogged pursuit of the SNC-Lavalin Case, relating to alleged corruption in the award of contract to a Canadian company in the mid-1990s for renovation of three hydel projects; the Kozhikode ice cream parlour sex scandal, over which former Minister P.K. Kunhalikutty had to step down in 2005; and the lottery scam, for which he sought a CBI investigation. Of late, he and the State CPI(M) have been targeting Chief Minister-aspirant Oommen Chandy, accusing him of abetment, as Finance Minister in the Karuankaran Cabinet between 1991 and 1993, in the import of palmolein, causing losses to the State exchequer.
It is not that Mr. Achuthanandan himself has remained exempt from accusations, at least those of political impropriety. Barely a month before the election was announced, he came under spirited attack from the UDF over his son's alleged involvement with the ‘lottery mafia.' Although he silenced his critics by promptly writing to the Centre seeking an investigation against his son as well, the allegations have exposed a chink in his armour.
The Chief Minister has struck a chord among the poor and among women. If it were not for the collective achievements of his team, Mr. Achuthanandan would not have been able to hit the campaign trail with so much gusto, seeking ‘a vote for continuity.' For the record, this is the only government in the State's recent history which can claim the unique distinction of having brought more land under cultivation, under forest cover and under industrial development.
Although the key middle years of the LDF government were marked by the global economic crisis, it was able to tide over the situation without resorting to expenditure cuts in its welfare budget. It was successful in stemming the tide of farmer suicides. Applying prudent fiscal management techniques raised State revenue substantially.
The government doubled the procurement price of paddy from Rs.7 to Rs.14 a kg and beefed up the public distribution system to keep prices of essentials under check. It also nursed back to health two-thirds of the 40-odd State public sector enterprises, many of which were virtually on the chopping block during UDF rule. Its attempt to provide rice for all the 70-lakh odd cardholders at Rs.2 a kg has been struck down by the Election Commission and the Supreme Court, following objections from the Opposition, but its budgetary promise to deposit Rs.10,000 in the name of every child born to BPL families and half that amount for children born in APL families as an education endowment has caught the imagination of large sections of the population.
Perhaps sensing the crucial importance of rice in the poll campaign, the UDF too has come out with the promise that it would supply 25 kg of rice to all BPL cardholders at Re.1 a kg and at Rs.2 a kg to the rest.
Primary target
The UDF campaign is primarily targeted at the Chief Minister, accusing him of being vindictive even against his own party colleagues; it has sought to know why he could do nothing about the several charges he had raised against Opposition leaders before he took over the reins of the government. The UDF promise is ‘Development with Care,' and the alliance has unveiled a plan of action that aims at fast-pacing the State's industrial and employment growth and providing support to various needy sections.
While the LDF could hit the campaign trail with relative ease despite the confusion at the top of the CPI(M), the same was not the case with the UDF, which was bogged down in seat-sharing till the very last day for filing of nominations on March 26. With several former LDF constituents switching over to its side and fissures developing within the Congress, every third seat became a bargaining point. The allies, particularly the Kerala Congress (Mani), struck a hard bargain, making things difficult, and the Congress had to put its foot down in the final stages of negotiations to have things its way. It was no different with minor allies such as the Socialist Janata Dal (Democratic), Janadhipathya Samrakshana Samithy (JSS), and Communist Marxist Party (CMP).
But the Congress and the UDF have more than made up for these early setbacks by fielding some fresh faces and launching a campaign blitzkrieg marshalling their energies with a carefully crafted media strategy that is focused on the “absence” of collective responsibility in the LDF Cabinet, the government's “failure” to speedily execute projects that promise to transform the State's industrial and employment scenario, and the “appropriation” the several schemes of the Centre to the State government's list of achievements. The UDF's promise is to free the State's development agenda from the “confusion” that has dogged the LDF regime and accelerate the State's march towards progress within the coming decade.
The BJP, which is making yet another bid to open its account in Kerala, is expected to put up a strong showing only in about half-a-dozen seats. In at least two constituencies in the northern and southern ends of the State, the party could pose a serious challenge. The party has traditionally registered a vote share of 6 per cent, making it more a spoiler than a winner. Whether enough has happened below the surface to help the party break out of its corner remains to be seen.
Kerala is famously described as a State where the “middle-classing” of the population has happened at an astounding pace. The government has done much to create a feel-good atmosphere, but how the middle class responds will play a critical role in this election. The LDF can take heart from the fact that it is not really badly off when it comes to community backing, with the Nair and Ezhava leaderships adopting a soft stand towards it; even sections of the minority communities are not displaying hostility towards the Front. However, the strained relationship that the LDF has had with powerful denominations of the Christian Church and a possible hardening of decisive Muslim votes may cost it dearly in several districts.
Consolidation of minority votes against the LDF was a feature of both the 2009 Lok Sabha and 2010 local body elections. If this happens again, neither Mr. Achuthanandan's secular political offensive nor the many achievements of his government will save the LDF. The highlighting of these achievements have brought a semblance of equality to the battle; it is not clear whether this is enough to secure the final outcome.
