Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen has said that a 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent growth in agricultural production has been forecast this year despite an 8 per cent deficit in rainfall as against normal.
There was a 2 to 3 per cent shortfall in the output in kharif as compared to last year but hopefully rabi, especially livestock, would rebound. How much rabi would actually contribute to the production would be known only after the season was grounded, Mr. Sen told media persons on the sidelines of the inauguration of School of Economics at the University of Hyderabad here on Monday.
Mr. Sen said the output was 4 to 5 per cent less than the first quarter advance estimates for main kharif crops. There was a sharp decline in output of coarse cereals and pulses but not much in rice. It was a matter of concern that the prices of cereals were also high. “The government has to act and release the huge amount of stocks of rice and wheat into market to ease the situation,” he said. The government promised to release the food grains into market but added he did not know at what prices.
Inflation
Referring to the current rate of inflation which was around 8 per cent, he said the general direction was that it would not come down if oil prices were not controlled in the next two months. However, there will be oil prices build up across economy during the period and create stickiness in inflation which will affect agricultural prices.
On suicide by farmers, he said the problem had come down in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Karnataka because farmers were better off due to increase in prices. But, their exposure to risk was not eliminated to insulate them completely from suicide.
