Why did Mukul Roy quit TMC?
There are several reasons why Mukul Roy, one of the Trinamool Congress’s founding members, severed ties with the party, but he offered three. Before joining the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), he dubbed the TMC a one-person party, decried dynasty politics as bad for the country and at his first press conference at the West Bengal BJP headquarters, he claimed that the TMC had failed to usher in change or parivartan it promised to the people of West Bengal.
Political observers added one more: Mr. Roy was losing grip over the party amid the rise of Abhishek Banerjee, nephew of TMC chairperson and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
However, for Mr. Roy, once the undisputed No. 2 in the party, things started to change when he was summoned by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in the multi-crore Saradha scam in January 2015 and he assured it of his “full cooperation.”
The trust deficit between him and the party chairperson could not be bridged, and he quit the party on October 11, three weeks before formally joining the BJP.
Why did the BJP open its doors?
In West Bengal, the BJP has been gunning for the TMC leadership for its alleged involvement in the Saradha scam and the cash-on-camera Narada sting videos. But the BJP did a volte-face by admitting Mr. Roy into the party. A section of party leaders felt that the 63-year-old politician could be the best bet to revive political fortunes in a State where it has not fared well in elections.
The BJP had been struggling to find a leader who could galvanise supporters. Mr. Roy, who is credited with leading the transformation of the TMC into an election-winning machine, gave the BJP reasons to believe he could do wonders for it in Bengal.
Moreover, the BJP has tasted success in the neighbouring Assam and in Manipur by banking on dissidents who held key positions in the previous Congress governments there.
Will this impact TMC?
Political observers seem to be divided on the question. Some feel Mr. Roy’s departure will make little difference to the TMC, which is well entrenched in the State. After ousting the Left Front which had been in power for 34 years, Ms. Banerjee remains popular, unlike Mr. Roy, who is good at carrying out orders but not a mass leader himself. Since the formation of the TMC in 1998, Mr. Roy has never successfully contested an election to the Assembly or the Lok Sabha. He was a Rajya Sabha member for 11 years before his resignation.
However, a section also believes that with one of the founding members of the TMC deserting the party, the chinks in its armour are showing. With Mr. Roy now with the BJP, he could help it spot potential weaknesses within the TMC, which is struggling to meet the political aspirations of the leadership.
What does it mean for Bengal?
The development is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the politics of the State. The TMC has the support of more than two-thirds of the MLAs in the 294-member Assembly and has control over almost all zilla parishads and civic bodies. The BJP may stake claim to the second spot in the State on the basis of the results of the recent byelections, but it is a distant second.
The panchayat elections in 2018 will be a litmus test for both the BJP and Mr. Roy to check whether they can put up any resistance to the TMC. After the BJP improved its performance in the April byelection, party president Amit Shah declared the BJP the “principal Opposition party in the State.” Top party leaders, including Mr. Shah, Rajnath Singh and Ravi Shankar Prasad, have all visited the State recently.
By joining the BJP, Mr. Roy appears to have paid back the TMC in its own coin — since 2011, the Opposition, particularly the Congress and the Left parties, has repeatedly alleged that the TMC had orchestrated defections. Most of these, they said, were the handiwork of Mr. Roy.
Now with Mr. Roy himself in the BJP, there could be more surprises in store closer to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
