The two back-to-back attacks in Jammu and Kashmir this past week may further complicate the relationship between the BJP and the PDP, the ideological opposites jointly ruling the State, especially on the contentious issue of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA).
The sudden spurt in terror incidents will weaken the case for lifting the AFSPA, even partially, in the State, some officials in the security establishment admitted.
The development comes against the backdrop of the BJP-PDP’s “Agenda for Governance” document that had stated that the coalition government would examine whether districts declared “disturbed” under the Act could be de-notified, enabling the Centre to take a final view on the AFSPA in these areas. But the terror attacks could now limit Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed’s manoeuvrability on the issue.
Lieutenant-General (Retired) Syed Ata Hasnain, who headed the Army’s Srinagar-based 15 Corps, said the situation in J&K had improved to a large extent but turbulent conditions persisted in the neighbourhood with Pakistan-sponsored terrorist groups continuing to be active in the State. “The two recent attacks in Kathua and Samba are a manifestation of this,” he said.
Lt. General Hasnain, also a Visiting Fellow at Vivekananda International Foundation, said former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had in October 2011 intended to revoke the declaration of being ‘disturbed’ from four districts, Kathua, Jammu, Srinagar and Badgam.
“That would have meant automatic revocation of the AFSPA from these districts. However, it needed the approval of the Governor ... and by implication the approval of the Central government,” he said.
“The attacks at Kathua and Samba signify that the proxy war in J&K is not yet over and neither has the intent of Pakistan or the jihadi groups altered in any way. There are no clear-cut answers to the problem of AFSPA and it should be recognised that for any movement on the issue there is a need for deep discussion for alternatives among all stakeholders,” said Lt. General Hasnain.
Stating that the government should involve all stakeholders, including security forces, if they were serious about evolving a consensus on the removal of the AFSPA, Delhi University Political Science Professor Navnita Behera said although the PDP would want to remove it to score a major political victory, “it is pretty clear that there are no easy options available for them to actually implement this agenda.”
