Even as the country awaits the judgment in the disproportionate wealth case against AIADMK general secretary and Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, the outcome, whatever it may be, is unlikely to dent her hold over the organisation and the administration immediately.
But any adverse outcome would affect her political fortunes in the future as she would be disqualified from contesting an election for six years unless the conviction is stayed or set aside by a superior court.
But for now, the party believes irrespective of the outcome, Ms. Jayalalithaa will remain at the helm of both the party and the government.
A senior AIADMK leader said nothing could affect Ms. Jayalalithaa as the party leaders and cadre were solidly behind her. “Nothing will move without her nod and she will continue to command,” he said.
Opposition leaders are of the same view. A former DMK minister said that though it was a clear instance of “delayed justice” in the wealth case, the outcome, whatever it may be, would not dilute Ms. Jayalalithaa’s power as the party leader and administrator.
Supreme Court ruling When the Supreme Court declared on September 21, 2001 that her appointment was not legal and valid, she lost no time in nominating O. Panneerselvan, then Revenue Minister belonging to the OBC ‘Mukkulathor’ community, as her successor. In the 2001 Assembly elections, though the AIADMK secured a majority, Ms Jayalalithaa was not a member of the Assembly.
But she was sworn in as Chief Minister by the then Governor, Fathima Beevi, after she was elected leader of the AIADMK Legislature Party in mid-May. The Governor’s decision sparked a controversy, because of her conviction on October 9, 2000 in the TANSI case.
Later, in March 2002, she came back as Chief Minister after winning in a by-election from Andipatti, following her acquittal by the Madras High Court.
But with the six-year bar on contesting an election, a comeback may not be as easy as the last time, in case of an unfavourable verdict.
Different circumstances
“The circumstances today are entirely different. If the judgment goes against her, she has to step down immediately and cannot contest in an election [quickly]. It will have far-reaching consequences for her,” said a former IAS officer.
Ms. Jayalalithaa’s hold over the party has all the more strengthened with the AIADMK winning 37 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry in the 2014 general election.
The AIADMK also has a strong presence in the Rajya Sabha.