Sometimes, it is the small battles that decide the fate of a war. The 2011 Assembly election in Tamil Nadu is likely to be fought most intensely at the level of the polling booth. Local political equations and field-level dynamics could have a greater bearing on the outcome than any one State-level issue.
While there is no dearth of talking points in the poll campaign, with everything from the 2G scam to promises of freebies thrown in, the election scene betrays no sign of a wave building up in favour of one or the other of the two major parties, the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, and the principal opposition, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
The DMK, led by Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi, is counting on the freebies and subsidies it handed out while in government to counteract the ill-effects of perceived corruption and abuse of power, especially on the law and order front, that have added up over the last five years. The AIADMK, with Jayalalithaa at the head, is hoping to whip up the latent anti-incumbency factors to nullify any benefit that the ruling party might derive from drawing attention to welfare measures.
In such a situation, election management at the local level is crucial. Alliance-coordination on the ground, caste affiliation, candidate selection, cadre mobilisation – such variables could have a critical bearing on the big picture. Other things being equal, many seats could be won or lost because of any one of these factors.
In forging their alliances with other parties, both the DMK and the AIADMK have factored in the need to make up for the perceived shortfall in votes in specific regions of the State. The DMK, which covered its bases by tying up with the Vanniyar caste-based Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Dalit-based Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi in the northern districts, brought in the Kongu Nadu Munnetra Kazhagam to bolster its chances in the western districts, where the AIADMK did very well in the 2009 Lok Sabha election.
According to the DMK's calculations, the KNMK, which polled nearly two per cent of the total vote in the State in 12 of the 39 Lok Sabha constituencies, could make a big difference in at least 20 Assembly constituencies. The KNMK got seven seats in the DMK front.
Similarly the PMK, with a Statewide vote share of about five per cent, is expected to lend critical support to the DMK-led front in at least 50 constituencies; the party has been allotted 30 seats. The VCK, which has a base in the north like the PMK, got 10 seats in recognition of its two per cent vote share. In the districts in the deep south (especially Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Tuticorin and Virudhanagar) as well as in the central areas and the delta, the DMK hopes the support of the Congress will be enough to see the alliance through. But the biggest advantage of the Congress, whose strength is estimated at between 12 and 15 per cent of the vote, is that it can boast of some support in almost all parts of Tamil Nadu.
In the AIADMK front, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam led by actor-turned politician Vijayakant, with a 10 per cent vote share, fulfils the role of the Congress in the DMK-led front with a more or less uniform spread of support across the State. The Left parties have their pockets of support, with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) strong in several urban constituencies, and the Communist Party of India enjoying support in some rural constituencies. Together, the parties have a vote share of about five per cent. The DMDK is contesting in 41 seats, the CPI (M) in 12 and the CPI in 10.
Smaller parties
Interestingly, both fronts include a large number of small parties, which serve two purposes. First, they help the front, if only in a small way, in a few constituencies. More importantly, some of them are brought in because of the community identity they invoke.
Even though the polity is becoming increasingly fragmented with the emergence of several small parties, the electoral contest is getting polarised between the DMK and the AIADMK. While there is no space for a third front, the dominance of the main parties within their fronts is weakening.
No party outside the two fronts is likely to win a seat in the 2011 Assembly election. At the same time, neither the DMK nor the AIADMK can be sure of being able to form a government without the support of the smaller allies. The DMK is contesting in only 119 of 234 constituencies; in another five, smaller allies are contesting on the DMK symbol. The party will find it next to impossible to win 118 seats for a simple majority. A strike rate of more than 95 per cent is what is required of the DMK in this election if it does not want to share power with its allies.
In this regard, the AIADMK is in a better position. The party is fielding candidates in 160 constituencies, leaving 74 to its allies. But, during the course of tough negotiations, Ms. Jayalalithaa had to part with several winnable constituencies. What the party gained in terms of quantity, it lost in terms of quality as the allies bargained jointly for a better deal in the parcelling out of constituencies.
Coalition government
This means the 2011 election could open up possibilities of a coalition government for the first time in Tamil Nadu. Even in 2006, the DMK fell short of a majority, winning only 96 seats. But the Congress and the other allies did not press for a share in power. Now of course, the situation is very different with the Congress having tried to wrest a pre-election commitment from the DMK on power-sharing in the event of a victory for the front.
Within the AIADMK alliance, the Left parties are not interested in being part of a coalition government: they view the alliance as a seat-sharing arrangement, no more than an electoral understanding. However, the DMDK views the issue very differently. After having lost two elections in a row (the 2006 Assembly polls and the 2009 Lok Sabha polls) since its inception, the party is hoping to be able to have a say in the formation of the next government.
What is driving the smaller parties into one or the other camp is the first-past-the-post system. After having proved their electoral worth by contesting alone, the minor parties end up gravitating towards one of the two fronts. Besides the DMDK and the Left parties, the AIADMK front includes the Puthiya Tamizhagam, a party with some support among Dalits in the southern districts and the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, the political arm of the Tamil Nadu Muslim Munnetra Kazhagam. The All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi (AISMK) led by actor Sarath Kumar, which claims to represent the Nadar community, the All India Moovendar Munnani Kazhagam (AIMMK), which invokes the Thevar community, a faction of the Republican Party of India and the Kongu Ilaignar Peravai, a little-known group that will be a poor second to the KNMK in the race for the votes of the Gounder community, were roped in because of the perceived spin-off from their strong caste identity and not their strength, which is miniscule.
Political churning
In the DMK front, the Moovendar Munnetra Kazhagam (political rival of the AIMMK) and the Perunthalaivar Makkal Katchi (rival of the AISMK) were brought in for the same reason. This election will also witness the consequences of some political churning over the last few years. The DMK, originally a party with a strong urban bias is reaching out to the rural areas.
Having enjoyed a traditional support among the organised workforce and upwardly mobile sections, it is now portraying itself as a champion of the unorganised sections. The distribution of freebies and the extension of subsidies has the backing of sections that had traditionally voted for the AIADMK.
The AIADMK, on the other hand, has encroached on the space vacated by the DMK in several urban areas, most notably, Chennai. Indeed, many of the DMK stalwarts, including Mr. Karunanidhi and his son M.K. Stalin, have moved out of their constituencies in central Chennai. While Mr. Karunanidhi chose his home town, Tiruvarur, with substantial rural votes, Mr. Stalin shifted to the sub-urban Kolathur.
However, if the AIADMK loses out in its traditional strongholds in the southern parts of Tamil Nadu, especially Madurai, Theni, Dindigul, Sivaganga and Ramanathapuram, the party will not have adequate recompense in other areas. Vote transferability is another issue: it is doubtful whether the DMDK (AIADMK-led front) and the KNMK (DMK front) which contested on their own in 2009 can transfer all their votes to an alliance.
While the alliance arithmetic may show a slight edge for the DMK front, especially with the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, formerly a part of the AIADMK front, deciding to boycott the polls, the anti-incumbency and voter fatigue could restore the political equilibrium. After 1984, when M.G. Ramachandran was voted in as Chief Minister for the third time, no party has been able to retain power.
The contests in many places are evenly matched and minor, local issues could tilt the balance. Much will depend on how the campaign is run: on how the cadres are motivated and how much they enthuse the voters. The dots and the dashes, not the broad strokes, will make up the big picture in the 2011 election.
Keywords: Tamil Nadu Assembly polls
The analysis by'The Hindu' is excellent. Most of the opinion polls proved wrong. In the case of 2009 Lok Sabha elections, it went wrong and DMK front bagged majority of seats , helping to form the central govt. People of Tamil Nadu think that a party with the support of central gov t. will make the state more prosperous one. we can see the visible development of Tamil Nadu in the last 5 years with good invesgtment in infrastructure, roads , metro projects, it parts etc., giving more disposable income in the middle class families of tamil nadu reducing their debts. In this way, DMK front will have clear edge over the rival front.
Hindu has given very detailed analysis of the party elections before and now. Sure this AIADMK alliance is more stronger than DMK. The Congress' 63 seats will definitely go to opposition party because of their several leaders inside the party. Maybe this DMK will get around 60 and AIADMK will get 95 then DMDK will get 30 rest CPI and CPM 4 seats. Under DMK alliance total 70 seats would be the final number under AIADMK 160 seats would be the final number.
Most of urban areas will go to AIADMK and rural areas goes to DMK front.Considering the fact that vote percentage tilted towards rural areas for DMK and most of the constituencies they contest are from rural side may decide the result.
Let's us all be cognizant about the fact that Textile, Telecom, Media, Airline industry and few more are under DMK's family. If they win this election, its another 5 more years to own few more industries for them. In the name of 'they are doing something for tamilnadu people' there are building FAMILY Ambani'S without any effort. It's time to think guys.
DMK has done resonably good things. Lot of parks have come up in Chennai. Thanks to them. The party should leave all free scheme and concentrate more and more on infrastructure development and employment generation. We can give one more chance to DMK.
I have been seeing the campaign in the all the TV channels and each one of them are saying what they have done and they are going to do in future. But the DMK seems to be having long list of what they have done in last 5 years but we do not find any such list with AIADMK as to what they have done during their previous tenures. We do want an able administrator like JAYA but the arrogance and non reach-ability poses a great danger to the democracy. MK or his son Stalin are easily accessible by the officials and the cadres. We hope wisdom prevails among our voters and they elect a stable and good party.
Traitionally the alliance that has congress wins in TN. And currently DMK Alliance is stronger than ADMK. And if you look at the current campaign by ADMK and DMK, DMK is reaching peoples with little more force. Except Jeyalalitha and Vijayajanth no noteable leaders are able to canvas votes for ADMK. Plus absence of 2nd level leaders in ADMK, plus no joint campaign by ADMK alliance partners, poor co-ordination between ADMK alliance partners can make DMK to assume power once again.Difference between DMK and ADMK manifesto is 1. DMK manifesto is been taken and campaigned by all the alliance leaders of DMK, whereas none in ADMK alliance is taking ADMK's manifesto except Jayalalitha.2. DMK has done what they have promised in 2006, hence they have the edge over ADMK in people's trust.Over all this should give many surprises in comming days. Certainly MDMK's exit is going to proove very very costly for ADMK. Probably it could turn to be a lollyup to DMK.
Literate and educated people (a minority, though) may not vote for DMK - the question is: will they take the trouble to cast their votes? JJ missed Vaiko's able support, that's a pity. As a commentator said, it seems that the alliance parties were more interested in obtaining more seats than sincerely contributing to the win of their alliance. I read that JJ may not campaign fully in DMDK's constituencies. How far DMDK will reciprocate is a moot question. Overall, I perceive DMK has an edge, thanks to their organizational ability, and of course, their possible handouts. It is expected that the Election Commission this time would enforce some semblance of discipline and fairness, given the outside police force brought in by them. To sum up, a win for either DMK or AIADMK would really mean the defeat of the common man. If AIADMK wins, the people have nothing to celebrate on - just a lesser evil, unless JJ proves otherwise.
It was a political ploy by AIADMK to engage a third front which could ensure the anti-incumbancy votes thereby reducing % vote by the ruling party. They visualised how DMDK spoiled their chances in 2006 elections and that is why they were very particular for alliance with the Congress. If they tied with Congress, they would have allowed all the other parties to form a third front and with the simple arithmetic they would have won. Having this ploy known or the offer of 90 seats made by them, Congress bargained hard with DMK and got what they wanted.Congress is bettter off with DMK with support in central and their cooperation. Now that the plan did not work out for AIADMK, there are two points that go against AIADMK. One is dropping the loyal associate MDMK which may sound a political compulsion but it is against moral ethics. This will sure play a part against AIADMK in this election. This will be a factor more than anti-incumbancy. Then the second factor that will affect AIADMK alliance is that the lack of leadership cooperation or coordination. This is clearly evident from the start of negotiation until conclusion. Even after conclusion of negotiation, there is no any image of togetherness between alliance partners. You do not go to a war with armed forces seperate, navy seperate and airforce seperate to win. It is a clear writing in the wall that AIADMK alliance does not show the political or personal bond between the leaders(like Vaiko and JJ had before). These two factors will cause erosion of neutral or antiincumbancy votes and tilt the favour towards DMK alliance.
Sadly the choice is about the best among the worst. The final outcome will depend on who gets out to vote and whether they vote with their head or their heart. Unless just passing 'supposedly intelligent' opinions can stop, unless there is a sea change in public apathy, it will be status-quo, as usual. Ultimately will not matter who wins or loses.
Mr.Sankaran: Do you think the promises end after distributing freebies? I don't see any strong reason supporting that people have faith in DMK after all the 2G scam. The statistics above show the seats won but not the percentage of votes obtained.In the 2006 elections,the ADMK had 40% and DMK had 45% and DMDK had around 10% vote share respectively.That was very close.Nevertheless,this election must be a close one too.Any development on the 2G scam too would definitely hurt DMK. Overall,people want peaceful elections and a stable government.
With so much emphasis by the center being on skill development towards increasing the employable pool of the population. It is surprising NOT to see either coalition include this in their manifesto! If the young and educated voters have to be pulled into the decision-making this will definetly be a major decision swayer.
Both parties loot. However, most of the infrastructure development happens during DMK regime. Let us wait and see
The above analysis is perfectly correct. Day by day, DMK is gaining due to strong alliance, SUN TV, Kalignar TV, Makkal TV Publicity, and their past performance. Further voters have strong feeling that Karunanidhi will fulfill his promise on election maanifesto whereas Jayalalitha will not. This is the major advantgage for DMK alliance. Let's wait and see the developments.
We can learn from History when it comes to state elections, quite naturally Caste compulsions(Alliance)40%,Candidate 20%, Local issues 10%, anti-incumbency 20%, Gross root cadre organization 10% respectively impact on results. Issues like 2G or family rule or price raise may take part in anti-incumbency factor. If alliance partners votes transferred as per estimations and candidate is with fame and name in that region may easily come across. If votes are not transferred as per estimations means the factor is marginalized and anti-incumbency factor take deciding role. Traditional ADMK voter never vote for DMK, same way traditional DMK voter never give vote for ADMK. Same way INC or CPI/CPM. But in case of DMDK, PMK, MDMK, VCK,KNMK may have % of tilting votes compare to major partners. The deciding factor here whether tilt voter give priority to Caste or Favouritism? This is enough margin to decide the next Govt.
TN poll has entered into a crucial phase. As the writer mentioned, the local issues and the pulls and the pressures at the micro level will decide the outcome of the elections. Though the two alliances - one led by DMK and the other one led by the AIAMK appear to be equally poised for a win, in reality, since there is less cooperation among the alliance parties, the mass cadre-based party is going to lead the seats hunt. There is every likelihood that the party which is well rooted in a particular constituency will gain greater momentum than the so called alliance strength. Each party now seems to be fighting the elections on its own than the under one alliance. In this Congress is now placed in a precarious position. DMK leadership must be feeling very bad for giving more seats to the Congress. The opposition is more handicapped as it is not able to give mass publicity to the failures of the Govt. No wonder the polling percentage will be less. May be not more than 55%.As a result this will turn out to be poll where only the active party workers will participate in full whereas the others will stay at home, as there is no pull or push effects to make them to exercise their franchise. So in the end, the party which has the well motivated cadres in work on the polling day will emerge as the single largest party. Viz; DMK with 80 seats, followed by AIADMK 60 seats, PMK 18 seats, the Congress and MDMDK together about 38 seats and others will get the balance.
I fully agree that the local activists and their commitment is going to decide the outcome. But it is a pity that either one of the evil alliance is going to rule Tamil nadu. But I don't know why you have deliberately left out the message that which cadres is going to effectively deliver the cash is going to be a utmost importance than any other factors. Even though EC is trying to curb this activities, I honestly believe that these illegal activities are going on. Ultimatley it is the bribery which is going to decide the fate.We all will hope atleast in another quarter century these general elections will be more meaningful.
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