The AIADMK is set to return to power in Tamil Nadu winning, together with its allies, more than two-thirds of the seats in the Assembly, according to a Headlines Today-ORG opinion poll. With 50 per cent of the vote share, the AIADMK-led front is projected to get 164 of the 234 seats.
The ruling DMK and its partners, with 45 per cent of the votes, will end up with just 68 seats, the survey said.
In Kerala, the projection showed the United Democratic Front led by the Congress getting 96 seats in the 140-member Assembly with a share of 48 per cent of the votes polled. The Left Democratic Front, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), was shown as getting only 41 seats with 40 per cent of the votes.
In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress-Congress combine was shown as getting 182 of the 294 seats with 44 per cent of the votes. Although the Left Front was behind by only one percentage point, it would get only 101 seats, the survey said.
In Assam, the Congress was expected to get 46 seats with a 32 per cent share of the votes; the AGP will get 38 seats with 25 per cent of the votes; the BJP, 15 seats with 12 per cent of the votes; and the AUDF, 15 seats with 14 per cent of the votes.
The survey covered 14,000 respondents in 121 constituencies across the four States.
In Tamil Nadu, AIADMK general secretary Jayalalithaa beat the DMK president and Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi as the favoured candidate for the chief ministership. While Ms. Jayalalithaa got 36.6 per cent approval, Mr. Karunanidhi was preferred by 34.1 per cent of the people polled. Those who wanted a change of government constituted 50.6 per cent, while those who wanted the present government to be re-elected comprised 36.3 per cent.
Corruption came out as an important issue: 50.5 per cent of the voters thought corruption was a major issue, while 33.6 per cent said it was not. More than 50 per cent of the people said they understood that the 2G spectrum scam had caused a loss to the government. Only 17.3 per cent said they did not understand the scam had caused a loss.
Price rise too was an important issue: 59.3 thought it significant in the election, as against 26.9 per cent who believed it was not.
Of the total number of people polled, 47.6 per cent said they voted for the DMK-Congress alliance in the 2009 Lok Sabha election, and 47.5 per cent they voted for the DMK-led alliance in the 2006 Assembly election. Similarly 30 per cent said they voted for the AIADMK-led front in 2009, and 29.4 per cent backed the front in 2006.
While 31.8 per cent said they would vote for the DMK if elections were held now, 32.1 per cent said they would vote for the AIADMK. Support for the other parties in the DMK-led front was Congress - 7.4 per cent, PMK - 2.2 per cent, and VCK - 2.4 per cent. In the AIADMK front, the DMDK got 11.3 per cent support, and the Left parties 0.6 per cent.
On the manner in which the killing of Indian fishermen by the Sri Lankan Navy was handled, 41.4 per cent of the people said they were not satisfied with the way the DMK government handled the issue; only 24.8 per cent expressed satisfaction with the government.
