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Updated: April 2, 2011 16:33 IST

Opinion poll says AIADMK will come to power

Special Correspondent
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AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa during her election campaign. Photo: Special Arrangement
The Hindu AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa during her election campaign. Photo: Special Arrangement

Headlines Today-ORG poll predicts UDF victory in Kerala; Trinamool win seen in West Bengal

The AIADMK is set to return to power in Tamil Nadu winning, together with its allies, more than two-thirds of the seats in the Assembly, according to a Headlines Today-ORG opinion poll. With 50 per cent of the vote share, the AIADMK-led front is projected to get 164 of the 234 seats.

The ruling DMK and its partners, with 45 per cent of the votes, will end up with just 68 seats, the survey said.

In Kerala, the projection showed the United Democratic Front led by the Congress getting 96 seats in the 140-member Assembly with a share of 48 per cent of the votes polled. The Left Democratic Front, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), was shown as getting only 41 seats with 40 per cent of the votes.

In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress-Congress combine was shown as getting 182 of the 294 seats with 44 per cent of the votes. Although the Left Front was behind by only one percentage point, it would get only 101 seats, the survey said.

In Assam, the Congress was expected to get 46 seats with a 32 per cent share of the votes; the AGP will get 38 seats with 25 per cent of the votes; the BJP, 15 seats with 12 per cent of the votes; and the AUDF, 15 seats with 14 per cent of the votes.

The survey covered 14,000 respondents in 121 constituencies across the four States.

In Tamil Nadu, AIADMK general secretary Jayalalithaa beat the DMK president and Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi as the favoured candidate for the chief ministership. While Ms. Jayalalithaa got 36.6 per cent approval, Mr. Karunanidhi was preferred by 34.1 per cent of the people polled. Those who wanted a change of government constituted 50.6 per cent, while those who wanted the present government to be re-elected comprised 36.3 per cent.

Corruption came out as an important issue: 50.5 per cent of the voters thought corruption was a major issue, while 33.6 per cent said it was not. More than 50 per cent of the people said they understood that the 2G spectrum scam had caused a loss to the government. Only 17.3 per cent said they did not understand the scam had caused a loss.

Price rise too was an important issue: 59.3 thought it significant in the election, as against 26.9 per cent who believed it was not.

Of the total number of people polled, 47.6 per cent said they voted for the DMK-Congress alliance in the 2009 Lok Sabha election, and 47.5 per cent they voted for the DMK-led alliance in the 2006 Assembly election. Similarly 30 per cent said they voted for the AIADMK-led front in 2009, and 29.4 per cent backed the front in 2006.

While 31.8 per cent said they would vote for the DMK if elections were held now, 32.1 per cent said they would vote for the AIADMK. Support for the other parties in the DMK-led front was Congress - 7.4 per cent, PMK - 2.2 per cent, and VCK - 2.4 per cent. In the AIADMK front, the DMDK got 11.3 per cent support, and the Left parties 0.6 per cent.

On the manner in which the killing of Indian fishermen by the Sri Lankan Navy was handled, 41.4 per cent of the people said they were not satisfied with the way the DMK government handled the issue; only 24.8 per cent expressed satisfaction with the government.

The same India Today-Headlines Today has reversed its predictions and now say DMK alliance will form government as more than 50% of the voters who have cast their votes have said they voted for the DMK alliance. Hope as predicted good sense prevailed as pointed out by Rasheed, DMK, though corrupt, has done excellent development work for the State and also generated employment providing jobs to more than 5 lakh youth in 5 years. In contrast, ADMK imposed recruitment ban and brought disaster to the lives and careers of youth.

from:  Puthiyavan Raj
Posted on: May 2, 2011 at 08:33 IST

The vote has been cast. opinion polls have made the predictions. what is important that the new government should learn from the past and charter a new approach of transparency and improve the law and order situation. Tamilnadu today is proud of its corrupt and partisan IAS and IPS officers who are the root cause of all our troubles may it be corruption, power cuts, price rise, deteroriating law and order situation. our spineless IAS officers right from the top seem to thrive on vengence and vendetta instead of implementing progressive administrative reforms like their predecessors.The new rulers should govern to further develop the state and conquer the current challenges of price rise, unemployment, power cuts and contain educational costs.

from:  Dr VGP
Posted on: Apr 28, 2011 at 02:59 IST

It seems Nakheeran predictions may come true on 13th May. What he had predicted during 2004 and 2009 proved right. This time around his predictions are quite distant from entire Media people. The voting pattern also looks (rural areas high turn) giving clear indication.

from:  Saibaba B.S
Posted on: Apr 26, 2011 at 18:43 IST

Most of the opinion polls, more than 10 conducted by various National and local vernacular magazines and also TV Channels, have predicated an outright victory to AIADMK. However, there are two pre-poll studies - one by Nakheeran and another independent one http://bhakthersolomon.sulekha.com/blog/post/2011/04/the-tamil-nadu-assembly-election-2011.html have opinioned an edge to DMK. Nevertheless, the high voter turn out seems to have upset all the calculations of both the alliances. So also the pollsters of pre-poll surveys. Exist polls are ready but results are not revealed. DMK leadership says that high turnout is because of voters endorsement on Government welfare scheme. The AIADMK concludes that it is an anti-establishment wave and hence voters in en mass voted to unseat DMK. The Poll Pundits attribute this high polling to the awareness level of young voters. On the other hand, social activities attribute this to the Election Commission's efforts for providing safety and its efforts for the smooth conduct of canvassing and poll day arrangements. The reality must be different. There is an opinion that if one takes into account the natural entry of new voters and minus the bogus voters,the actual % increase between the last poll and this poll is only about 2.16%. Be that as it may. If the voting percentage is well above 65% in a particular constituency that means some kind of 'Pull efforts' were used by the lower level workers of different political parties. Their sustained efforts to keep the momentum of poll has ensured that an additional 10% to 15% voters have displayed their 'loyalty' to the piper of the music, if not to the voting machine. Hence, it can safely be assumed that wherever the polling is less than 65%, the push and pull efforts are less. In areas, the polling is more than 65% - be it women voters or men voters - the percentage is in direct proportion to the received 'incentives'. So let us not be under some kind of illusion as if voters have decided this way or that! In the end, what we deserve we will get on 13th May. New Secretariat complex or Fort St. George?

from:  R.Bhakther Solomon
Posted on: Apr 20, 2011 at 11:40 IST

In DMK rules,There will be some development and they will also get large scam.But in the ADMK,They will not develop anything as well as themselves.We need to live safely with Sufficient economic.We want development not only in economically but law and order.we must appreciate those who are ruling the state without selfish of themselves and their family selves.

from:  Nishar
Posted on: Apr 16, 2011 at 23:40 IST

Its AIDMK or DMK who ever rules TN, should keep in mind the welfare of the people who have voted to make either of the party's head to sit on the CM chair.Freebies alone will not uplift TN ,instead a revamp in the policy of education, infrastrcture, economically priced comodities, wiping out the steep increase in land, Gold value, maintaining Petrol price for every year in the annaul budjet would be the real gratitude to the people of TN who voted.

from:  Kathiravan
Posted on: Apr 15, 2011 at 06:27 IST

Both parties being corrupt is a well known fact. But is it not time to teach DMK a lesson or two for the enormity of corruption that people of TN and the country in the form of 2G scam have been witness to? There is a general feeling that DMK is good in policy execution and administration at the grass-root level though they are steeped in corruption. But that quality alone cannot justify impunity for them. It is time for them to sit in the opposition. TN does not hope for a miracle rule by ADMK even if comes to power. At least, some form of electoral justice would be a great solace for the most of them. If the opinion polls come true, hope ADMK does not get back to its old ways and works for TN to emerge as a role-model for other states in terms of all-round development.

from:  Aravind Raman
Posted on: Apr 13, 2011 at 09:42 IST

In my opinion freebies make people as beggers.Further, start industries to provide freebies, so while giving freebies some people get employed, not procuring from China cheap products and supply freebies. The present government is centered on one family and has covered every area like media, film industry and print media. This must be stopped. Hence I would prefer an alternative.

from:  B. Venkat
Posted on: Apr 12, 2011 at 11:04 IST

Of the total number of people polled, 47.6 per cent said they voted for the DMK-Congress alliance in the 2009 Lok Sabha election, and 47.5 per cent they voted for the DMK-led alliance in the 2006 Assembly election. Similarly 30 per cent said they voted for the AIADMK-led front in 2009, and 29.4 per cent backed the front in 2006.
Actual Result
DMK Allaince won 27 Seats (2009 Lok Sabha)
DMK Allaince won 164 Seats (2006 Assembly)
ADMK Allaince won 12 Seats (2009 Lok Sabha)
ADMK Allaince won 69 Seats (2006 Assembly)
This is the accuracy of the opinion poll while comparing with the actual result. In such a way only they have predict and projected the following statements to cheer the opposition party. "With 50 per cent of the vote share, the AIADMK-led front is projected to get 164 of the 234 seats. The ruling DMK and its partners, with 45 per cent of the votes, will end up with just 68 seats, the survey said." That means we can call it as a kind of election campaigning favour of opposition party rather saying it as a opinion poll.

from:  Tamil Selvan
Posted on: Apr 8, 2011 at 12:34 IST

It is quite surprising that people have commented only about DMK and AIADMK alliances. The basic problem is with our feeling to be aligned with a winning party. People have options. Why not vote for Makkal Sakti Katchi? They will not, because they say that they will not win. Of course they will not since you will not vote for them. Our attitude of associating ourselves with a winning combination is our greatest downfall. This is not limited to TN alone.

from:  K.Venkateswar
Posted on: Apr 8, 2011 at 11:13 IST

In 2006 election, DMK offered freebies and came into power and won with less margin of votes compared with AIADMK. People fell into the trap of freebies. If AIADMK wants to come to power then Jayalalitha have to turn the people back to her with freebie offers, she have no other way to do it. People easily get diverted to the freebies at any moment. I feel people see only freebies but not aware of their clothes get removed and rights get removed. I feel, Power cut problem is more in the state, several places have 8hrs power cut. This has damaged the business that too in recession time. No control of price, petrol continue to raise. I blame Chidambaram for online trading of important food items. Govt is helping business tycoons not the people. The create new laws for those tycoons and in turn get good amount from them. Example 2G, etc. America is outsourcing the jobs to india and process work fast and meet the goals soon. Why can't govt offices outsource work to BPO and get it done at faster rate. We cannot ask govt employees to work, they have not prepare for that. In anger they will turn the govt upside down like they punish Jayalalitha. Now price rise is a problem, Salary not increased by corporates after recession, but price have increased several times. I'm thinking about the poor people are they capable of buying things. To vote out DMK we need big force so ultimately we need AIADMK, no other party is strong enought to do that. So our choice is for AIADMK. Hope this time atleast Jayalalitha to do something more good. We don't want freebies, we want our right to leave, our basic facilities and infrastructure. Freedom to speech, express.

from:  Jayakumar
Posted on: Apr 8, 2011 at 03:05 IST

I think that the elections are going to be tough but not so decisive for one side.Candidates personality and the collective behavior of castes and money power is going to skew the election outcomes.

from:  Olaganathan
Posted on: Apr 7, 2011 at 17:47 IST

There is an independent opinion poll study by an experienced pollster. It was done during March 15th to 31st and covered 2000 samples and it concludes as follows: Poll Percentage: The study concludes that the overall % of voting is likely to be less than 60% Party Preference: DMK seems to be favoured by 26% against 23% of AIADMK. Therefore, if all the parties stand alone DMK will emerge as the single largest party, followed by AIADMK, DMDK and Congress. Alliance Strength: DMK alliance is represented by DMK, Congress, PMK, VCK and one two splinter Group. AIADMK alliance is represented by AIADMK, MDMK, Communists and other minor parties. DMK alliance will be polled 40% as against 33% of AIADMK. If MDMK votes are equally divided, then it will be 41.5% for DMK and 34.5% to AIADMK. 20% members are yet to make up their minds. Out of this, the chances of majority going to polling booth on the poll day by peer pressure or because of some other considerations can't be ruled out! If one divides the remaining 20% undecided / unwillingness voters on the above basis of already committed voters, then the DMK will get another 10.8% as against the AIADMK’s 9.2% of AIADMK votes. Prediction of seats is difficult exercise. Extrapolating the various micro level people's/voters choices at state level is an art itself. It warrants application of Proven statistical tools. There is no full proof theory for this. But then this study, taking into consideration, the Strike Rate Ability (SRA) of different parties and also based on the voters present choice come to the following seats prediction. The chance of any single party crossing the 85 threshold of seats is very remote. There will be very less difference in terms of no. of seats between DMK and AIADMK as single party. May be about 15 - 20 seats will differentiate between them. The DMK alliance will get a minimum of 136 seats to a maximum of 155 seats. The AIADMK alliance will get a minimum of 84 to a maximum of 100 seats. It further says, Dravidian Strength: It is interesting to note that the combined strength of the Dravidian parties is less than 55%. It will be of much interest to know through a Research as to how come the Dravidian parties with combined strength of 55% or less always rules the state? That too one Dravidian party with less than 30% of its own votes is able to rule? The study further concludes that uncommitted voters sitting on the fence, is expected to decide the outcome of the election. But in reality it is not. It is the hard work of party cadres and their battle for survival will win the election.

from:  R.Bhakther Solomon
Posted on: Apr 7, 2011 at 15:24 IST

Nothing will be changed by giving oppornutinty to AIADMK.We should allow the current DMK to continue as we have no third option.

from:  John Claribel
Posted on: Apr 7, 2011 at 14:43 IST

If ADMK comes to power, the fate of all state government employees will surely be a big question mark? Recollect what happened to the state government employees during the last ADMK rule.
Corruption is there with both political parties, its the welfare schemes that makes the difference. Unless a strong rule comes against corruption we have no other alternative for a good government.

from:  Ssassa
Posted on: Apr 7, 2011 at 10:49 IST

Sad for Tamilnadu people... do not think out of the box. Appreciate the voters of Bihar for selecting JD(U) and Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister.

from:  Babu
Posted on: Apr 6, 2011 at 17:44 IST

Its very difficult to believe that the 2G scam slush money is completely taken by one man. It is a planned well-thought out operation. The money reached where it was expected to reach. The democracy in India is for the 'same' people, by the 'same' people and for the powerful families. The freebie politics of TN is disgusting. People don't understand that the freebies provided by the government are not coming from the party treasury. Its the exchequers' money which should have gone for productive investments rather than TVs and Mixies which completely redirect government funds for buying cheap short-term popularity. Let the people vote for a government for the people. Also, we all know that the people will get a government that they deserve. By the time they understand the mistake the treasury is looted. Funds diverted. Development compromised. We the people get the crumbs. The bread is eaten by a few powerful. The story is the same everywhere. Still the wheels of great Indian democracy move on along the road of hope. It is the collective spirit of the people that moves the country and the political system on its axis of 'hope'. This is our India. Let the show go on..

from:  Rajiv
Posted on: Apr 6, 2011 at 16:38 IST

How many times these opinion polls and exit polls have gone grossly wrong ? The media have made a fool of themselves countless times. In 2004, we all know the India shining campaign and the prediction by almost the entire Media that Vajpayee was all set to storm to power. Even in the final exit polls, NDTV which gave the lowest figure to BJP gave it 235 seats. But in the final results, NDA could not even touch 160 seats. Even in 2009 lok sabha every Media was predicting a tough fight between BJP and Congress. The best scenario for the Congress by the media singly was 155 seats. However, the final Congress tally was 206 seats single handedly. The BJP which was given 140 on an average got just 116. In the case of Tamil Nadu in particular, opinion and exit polls have gone horribly wrong with the Media not even able to pick the winner. This time things are going to be no better. If the DMK alliance wins, then not only ADMK will be defeated but the entire media network would stand exposed.

from:  Sundar
Posted on: Apr 6, 2011 at 14:38 IST

It will be good for TN if ADMK comes to power since the family rule should be stopped. DMK has siphoned of all industries (Film, Real Estate etc) and has created a Guiness record in corruption (2g SCAM). I pray that this opinion poll results matches the election result.

from:  Ganesh R
Posted on: Apr 6, 2011 at 13:02 IST

I personally feel that the opinion polls conducted for Tamil Nadu is wrong and that too early and immatured to predict AIADMK victorious. DMK has always made people feel that the freebies offered would reach whereas AIADMK has never kept promises. The people who vote on the voting day are people from BPL, Poor class, Lower middle class and middle class. Students when they get a holiday they travel out of stations and so their vote percentage decreases. The class which a English news channels interviews with the sample size will have people who can speak in english or the middle class, the upper middle class and the rich class but how much percentage of them are to excise their votes? It is just an anti- incumbency wave which sweeps through because there seems to be an opposition to some party which never had a strong one so people throng to the rallies. The Question is how much will those be converted into potential votes. In the case of DMDK, People throng to the rallies because a celebrity has arrived but the question again is will this be converted into potential votes. The communists have lost their vote bank all over. They might have loyalists but their figures are in the decrease. The PMK is a caste based party so the PMK and caste loyalists stick on to the party. The same is the case with VCK as the dalit votes bring its strength. The congress will face a heavy loss in many places as it might have done well in work but too many cooks spoil the rice. It has more leaders than commited workers. Too many leaders work for the downfall so Congress would lose a lot of seats. Its true a tough fight given but unpredictable to choose the victorious party. AIADMK has good chances but DMK has proven chances.

from:  A Vivek
Posted on: Apr 6, 2011 at 09:49 IST

People deep in their hearts clearly know - both the fronts are corrupt and are using politics as a family enterprise. There is a huge political vacuum for honest policy driven political force.

from:  Subbu
Posted on: Apr 5, 2011 at 23:24 IST

Opinion poll rightly reflected people feeling.AIADMK combine definitely going to sweep the assembly polls.TN has to give a mandate to end family rule.

from:  Vinu
Posted on: Apr 5, 2011 at 17:39 IST

Opinion polls have been largely didcredited in the United States where the polls are frequent and popular.It is said the results of such a poll could be manipulated to reflect the prejudices of the pollster,who could frame the questions to secure the desired results.So,these polls are not immune from chicanery.

from:  Bridget Kumar
Posted on: Apr 5, 2011 at 01:18 IST

The fate of Tamil Nadu is determined by the DMK and AIADMK only, after the Congress failed misserably. Whoever comes to power, is Tamilnadu going to be the top most State of the Country, where giving and receiving bribes are the birth right of the electorates and the elected ones? Rather it will go down and down only.

from:  Somu
Posted on: Apr 4, 2011 at 18:10 IST

DMK can win this election because they have formed the grand alliance comparing with ADMK. ADMK has lost atleast 8% votes from the last Lok shaba election 2009, because of MDMK and PMK. It may be compansated with DMDK. But If we add PMK And KMK vote shares with DMK, DMK allies can get minimum of 48% votes compared to ADMK can get only 39% votes. So DMK+ can win 162 seats whereas ADMK+ can win 70 seats

from:  R.Thiruppathi
Posted on: Apr 4, 2011 at 15:18 IST

Tamil Nadu is really bad Situation, Both Dravidian parties accuse each other. But both maintain the same philosophy, corruption, create caste division, language divisions, rowdyism, Bribes for Votes Etc. Both are not ready to give people own rights such basic facilities, water, power, road, food and shelter, provide job and develop the economy for the family, they will buy what they want, why do you want to give free as bribe(inability to provide basic rights). There is no alternative choice of tamil nadu peoples because all alternatives are calculating no of seats and money only. Please people stand and get rid of this fate, at least our next generation can live peacefully.

from:  Pradeep.P
Posted on: Apr 3, 2011 at 22:05 IST

I'm really scared of ADMK coming to power.. At the least now ppl are safe in the hands of govt. they loot that's another issue but they didnt loot our purses directly.. i could recollect policemen charging me money for crossing CMBT as toll money; govt servants arrested and dismissed; my teachers arrested in the midnight; her arrogant nature will not change at any cost. I pray to God, this opinion is merely an eye wash set up by opposition with the help of some media people against Karunanidhi as he mentioned in one of the campaigns.

from:  Vikram
Posted on: Apr 3, 2011 at 01:36 IST

Whatever said about equality in corruption amongst the major parties in Tamil Nadu having a chief minister who is over 85 years old and mobilizes on a wheel chair just beats everything !!!!

from:  Srini
Posted on: Apr 2, 2011 at 16:04 IST

People of Tamil Nadu have no choice. They are between devil and deep sea. The main contending parties are known for their corruption. Seeing the trend it appears, whoever comes to power, the corruption will go on unabated. A corruption free society is an utopia.

from:  Ashok
Posted on: Apr 2, 2011 at 10:20 IST

Tamil Nadu has no other options.Two dravidian parties are controlling almost more than 50% of votes.The Congress instead of strengthening their own organisation were siding with one or the other.The party organisation has no popular leadership and every one looks for so called High Command for directions. They spend most of their time at Delhi seeking favors.The other parties are only splinter groups majority of them are controlled by Film World.DMK will use Dravidian philosophy to create caste divisions, language divisions Etc.The left parties have only limited votes. BJP the main national opposition party has no roots.What you can expect?The state is progressing not by effort or policies of the Dravidian parties.The politicians try to claim.They have amassed huge wealth with the help and patronage from Delhi.There is total intellectual bankruptcy in Tamil Nadu Politicians.At least the so called educated voters use their voting rights in this election judicially taking long term requirements of Tamil Nadu. Do not succumb to narrow minded politics of Major parties.

from:  Narayanan Krishnan
Posted on: Apr 2, 2011 at 06:24 IST

Since corruption had become the norm of the day and the people of Tamil Nadu have accepted the evil as part of their life. The people of Tamil Nadu also have developed this habit of switching their votes every two to three years as evident by the assembly and Lok Sabha polls. But everybody knows that nothing is going to mitagate the extent of pervasive corruption nor improve the lives of the down trodden. Under these circumstances, the pollsters job is no better than that of astrologers, because if they get it right or wrong now, they will get wrong or right in the next two years. Unless people realize that change should come from within a corruption free democracy will always remain a mirage.

from:  Hariram
Posted on: Apr 2, 2011 at 04:45 IST

Both parties are corrupt,What the voter needs to compare is what was done in the last 5 years.To be honest MK has done a fair job,other than making his family the undisputed rulers of kollywood.The Medical Insurance ,5 Eggs a week for kids,loans for SHG, Infrastructure projects like bridges, flyovers over T Nagar and Grade seprator in Guindy and Airport,Bypass Road, Drinking water tanks in 221 vilages,Financial assistance to pregnant women and now Housing scheme.There are so many others which were implemented effectively as well.Creation of jobs in the state was the best in the Country as well.This was made out by all economists.Were MK failed was in not getting Raja to step down when the 2G scam broke.Allowing his 3rd wife and daughter to become a party in the whole 2G scam.His 1 buck a kg of rice was a real match winner.But will he manage this time ,I dont think so.The alliance looks ggood on paper ,but the negative fall out of 2G will bring him down.MK's good work will be made out when the 2016 elections are held and not in 2011.

from:  Rasheed
Posted on: Apr 2, 2011 at 02:19 IST

In India, Corruption will be always there. No one can change that. Rich get richer and poor gets poorer. Both parties have their advantage and disadvantage, But AIADMK is always a better party when compared to DMK in terms of corruption, rowdyism, education.

from:  Arun Nagarajan
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 23:29 IST

The prime focus of a state/central government should be in maintaining the law and order and a clean administration, to provide uninterrupted power and water supply and in controlling inflation. DMK government has miserably failed to focus in all of these. Poor growth rate and financial status of the state are the solid evidences. Apart from these, DMK has set a wrong example of wooing voters by freebies and 'vote for money'. Thus putting the general morale of the people is at stake. It is time to kick away this government and bring the only alternative AIADMK to power. Though AIADMK had made some flaws it is the need of the hour. A landslide victory for AIADMK alliance can only save TN from the hands of atrocious rascals.

from:  Sada
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 23:13 IST

BJP has set the trend that if a 'lie' is repeated hundred times by hundred persons the public will accept it as 'truth'! Today BJP is hoisted on its own petard!AIADMK supremo wants to follow BJP's footsteps? Her arguments don't hold water! She says the people are disgusted with one family rule! That was charge against her in 2001 election!On the advice of her close ally, she dropped suave Vaiko and took in the rugged Vijaykant! The results are slowly surfacing! How can she accuse DMK of 'Corruption' when 'disproportionate' assets case against her is pending in Bangalore court?Let no one underestmate the public's capacity to see through things!

from:  Meiyappa
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 20:48 IST

Does AIADMK have 50 per cent of the vote share? Big question mark. Not based on facts...

from:  Rajdeep
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 19:46 IST

Only if 80% of the voters exercise their franchise,we get real people's mandate . Otherwise these governments are mere dummies.

from:  Krishnakumar
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 19:42 IST

'Cash for Vote' is DMK's mantra and they proudly claim the same as the stragey called 'Thirumangalam Formula'. Looting of our state, with no inclination for development by 'a family' MUST not continue. The need of the hour is to show the door to DMK government, as we, the people, would not get an opportunity for next 5 years.

from:  Shankar
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 18:11 IST

I watched Headlines Today clips covered in 13 parts focusing WB and TN. Good and unbiased approach in speech of Mr N Ram. Good going. Fourth Pillar is the only hope in this so-called Democratic country. I wish The Hindu maintains its current stand.

from:  R Srinivasan
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 17:26 IST

As we consider corruption to be an important issue, why are we voting for politicians already tainted with allegations of corruption? Why is it we fail so utterly and totally to elect a new breed of politicians fired by idealism to serve the public rather than those intent on filling their private purses with public money? And, why do we accept the freebies and feel we are obliged to repay the largesse shown to us by voting for the providers of these freebies? Best thing is not to accept the freebies; but, because of our economic circumstances, we are tempted to accept the freebies, take them and yet vote those rascals out.

from:  Mohansingh
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 14:52 IST

AIADMK is the only alternative for Tamilnadu. Congress and others will have to wait for 100 more years to replace the Dravidian parties. All along the DMK has exploited the poor by bribing them and get elected and then loot the state.

from:  S Rajagoplan
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 14:49 IST

Definitely the change of government will be a good one. The existing DMK government's way of working is not beneficial especially for the poor people. Law and Order situation is also not in a good shape. Compared to Mr.MK's administrative power Ms.JJ's would be much better.

from:  Subrmanian
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 14:17 IST

We the people of TN have a tough choice to make. Can we make millionaire from Karunanidhi's family or Jaya's extended family?, Now people want to create millionaire for Jaya's family

from:  Vaidee
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 13:49 IST

Headlines Today - ORG Opinion poll makes an interesting reading. It concludes that in all the 4 states the ruling party will lose the power! In three states sure and in one a possibility. There is some kind of misinterpretation of the opinion poll data as far as Tamil Nadu is concerned. Hence the arrived conclusion may not reflect the true picture of the public mood. The study says 'While 31.8 per cent said they would vote for the DMK if elections were held now,32.1 per cent said they would vote for the AIADMK. Support for the other parties in the DMDK-led front was Congress 7.4 per cent, PMK - 2.2 per cent, and VCK 2.4 per cent. In the AIADMK front, the DMDK got 11.3 per cent support, and the left parties 0.6 per cent.' This means the AIADMK alliance has 44 % as against DMK alliance 43.8% It means a mere 0.2 % differentiates the two alliance in popular votes. Be that as it may! Based on the above voting polled, one can safely assume that they are about 12.2% who are fence sitters or not decided. 'how they will poll their votes,' No one knows. Therefore the seat prediction 164 seats to AIDMK because of a mere 0.2% actual votes is nothing but a wishful thinking. Highly impossible! Let us see another finding or conclusion of the study. As far as the approval rating of CM is concerned Dr. Jayalalitha is favored by 36.6 % 34.1 % for Dr. Karunanidhi. From AIADMK, Amma is only CM candidate, but in DMK there are more than one candidates. The study does not say other DMK leaders like Stalin or Alageri for that matter even Kaniamozhi were preferred by how many. If we add all the CM candidate(s) in DMK, the result would show DMK CM candidate(s) has (have) an edge over AIADMK candidate. In view of the above two findings - the difference of 0.2% the between DMK & AIDMK alliance in popular votes and all CM candidates preference votes not fully known - one can safely conclude there is every likelihood this prediction going to wrong. Even otherwise, the seat projection of 184 to AIADMK is too much. In reality one may not be surprised if the AIADMK alliance end of with 85 to 100 seats! The opinion poll studies outcome differs from study to study based on the methodology applied. No wonder, most dismiss this as guessing game! Perhaps, people have learnt the art of saying one thing and behaving in just the opposite manner. This gives room for such perceptions. The way in which the poll questions are worded have some bearings on the kind of responses. Hence the result is known to be fallible on account of bad questionnaire.

from:  R. Bhakther Solomon
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 11:42 IST

The prediction that AIADMK would come back to power has been known by the people of TN. The poor people would vote AIADMK for the freebies and the confused middle class for both DMK and AIADMK.The rich class for DMK. The change is not really good for the people of TN. It will be the same situation. A king rules or a queen rules the country. Another proverbial : a thief rules or a robber rules. The TN people would never get honest, sincere and unselfish politicians to govern and serve the state of TN. May be in the next century.

from:  Ken Sundaram
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 07:56 IST

Polls based on samples of populations are subject to sampling error which reflects the effects of chance and uncertainty in the sampling process. The uncertainty is often expressed as a margin of error. The margin of error is usually defined as the radius of a confidence interval for a particular statistic from a survey. Voters who changed their minds shortly before voting tended to favour others.

from:  Paranee
Posted on: Apr 1, 2011 at 05:46 IST
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