It is a do-or-die battle in the northern districts not just for the principal political players – Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(AIADMK) – but also for other important parties – Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK).
While the bigger parties are pinning their hopes on the region for getting a lion's share of seats, the smaller parties are in the fray to demonstrate their relevance and utility.
The DMK and AIADMK believe they will able to capture power if they score a tremendous success in this region while the DMDK, PMK and the VCK consider their performance in these districts crucial to the continuance and consolidation of their political strength in future.
The northern districts – Tiruvallur, Chennai, Kancheepuram, Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram and Cuddalore – account for around one-third of the total number of seats in which the principal parties are contesting. Of its tally of 119 candidates, the DMK has fielded 33 nominees in the north besides four from its allies which are contesting on the DMK symbol. In the case of the AIADMK, which is contesting in 160 constituencies, 54 of its candidates are facing the polls in the region.
Its ally DMDK is trying its luck in 16 constituencies, which represent nearly 40 per cent of the total number of seats (41) that the party has been allotted in the seat-sharing process. One half of the candidates of the PMK, one of the DMK's partners, is seeking to enter the Assembly through this region while another ally, VCK, has fielded most of its candidates – seven out of 10.
As many as 25 constituencies will witness direct contests between the DMK and AIADMK.
For the DMK, the region is a traditional stronghold. Even when it was defeated in the Assembly elections, the northern districts have sent a maximum number of its nominees to the House. In 1977, the DMK had 30 Members of Legislative Assembly from these districts out of its overall number of 48. In 1984, when the party could secure 24 seats, 13 were from the north. Ten years ago, 17 out of the DMK's 31 MLAs were elected from here. It is no wonder that the party is hopeful of getting a large number of MLAs from here this time too.
Interestingly, the AIADMK, popularly regarded as having a strong base in the south originally, is viewing the northern region as one where it can improve upon its earlier performance. In the 2006 Assembly elections, 17 of the party nominees were successful here, including seven from Chennai. Then, the party had 61 MLAs in total.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the performance of the party in the north was, comparatively speaking, better than in some other regions. It would have been better but for the presence of the DMDK, with which the AIADMK has aligned now. Two years ago, the DMDK was a spoiler in 33 assembly segments that involved the AIADMK-led front.
Bruised after the rout in the 2009 polls, the PMK is looking for a resurrection this time. It is now part of the DMK-led front that includes the VCK. It is for the first time that the PMK and the VCK, which had all along been in rival camps, are contesting the elections together. For the VCK, the elections are significant for one more reason as the party wants to have a symbol of its own.
Law Minister Durai Murugan, who is contesting from Katpadi, says the State government's performance, the party's electoral history and the strength of the alliance are among the favourable factors for his party to secure the maximum number of seats in the region.
A senior leader of the AIADMK contends that despite the portrayal by certain sections of the media of lack of cohesion between his party and the DMDK, the workers of the two organisations are working in unison to ensure success for their front. He also claims that the chemistry between the PMK and the VCK does not remain at the level of cadres of the two parties, a point contested by the other camp.
In terms of issues that affect the region, there has not been much change. Agrarian problems – labour shortage, adverse impact of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme and lack of remunerative returns – characterise the farm sector.
The problem of power shortage is another major issue. K. Jayakumar, All India Congress Committee secretary and candidate from Madurantakam, feels that the establishment of biomass-based power plants will help tackle the problem. Using the huge availability of casuarinas in his area, at least one such plant will be set up in the event of his victory, he adds.
