Polarisation of votes on the lines of religion and caste seems to be the primary reason for the victory of the National Democratic Alliance in the Kanyakumari and Dharmapuri Lok Sabha constituencies.
Against a tsunami-like wave that the ruling AIADMK rode on, the victory of PMK’s youth wing leader Anbumani Ramadoss and BJP State president Pon Radhakrishnan, equally historic, has prompted a reflection on what helped them win.
The electorate of Kanyakumari, which is a traditional Congress bastion, is equally dominated by Hindus and Christians. While the BJP was able to retain its “base vote,” the non-Hindu votes — that of Christians who dominate the coastal landscape and Muslims — were divided between Congress candidate H. Vasantha Kumar and AIADMK candidate D. John Thangam.
While Pon. Radhakrishnan polled 3,72,906 votes, Vasantha Kumar received 2,44,244 followed by 1,76,239 by Thankam and the DMK’s F.M. Raajarathinum polling over one lakh votes. The vote share indicates that a divided house has helped Mr. Radhakrishnan.
“Usually, the Christians back a particular candidate and the Hindu votes are divided. This time, the non-Hindu votes were equally shared by the Congress and the AIADMK,” says V. Umaiorubhagam, principal, N.I. College of Arts and Science.
According to locals, the local ministers, both past and present, from the Dravidian parties mobilised votes to safeguard their prominence, and this also led to the two Dravidian parties polling over one lakh votes each.
The BJP’s win, with a margin of over 1.3 lakh, comes despite the churches supporting Mr. Vasantha Kumar, whom they perceived as the “winning horse” in the last minute. If the idea was to stop the BJP from winning the seat, it boomeranged.
Apart from the BJP’s base vote share, the youths in the district, educated and looking for employment, have voted for change.
“In Dharmapuri, caste mobilisation has been on at an unprecedented level for a year now,” says a city-based political analyst and a native of the district. The mobilisation and consolidation of the Vanniyars hit an unprecedented high in the wake of Dalit youth Ilavarasan marrying Vanniyar girl Divya, leading to the caste Hindus burning two villages.
The constituency has also been a strong base for the Pattali Makkal Katchi but after the marriage (that eventually turned tragic), the Vanniyars have taken their aversion to the Dalits to great heights, he says. And the Vanniyar consolidation happened across party lines through a systematic door-to-door campaign, he adds.
While the PMK and NDA candidates in the constituencies in the northern district polled between 1.50 lakh and over 3 lakh votes, Mr. Anbumani polled 4.68 lakh votes, winning by about 77,000 votes.
A high per cent of the Vanniyars in the DMK, also aghast at the alliance with the VCK, a Dalit-party, voted for Mr. Anbumani. There could be a ring of truth to this statement as the DMK polled only 1.80 lakh votes, nearly two lakh votes lesser than the AIADMK.
“I can assure you that the Vanniyars in the AIADMK also voted for the PMK in Dharmapuri,” says Kolathur Mani, founder-president of the Dravidar Viduthalai Kazhagam, and a voter in the Mettur Assembly segment of the Lok Sabha constituency.
Meanwhile, a micro-analysis of the voting pattern by the ruling AIADMK on Saturday revealed that the Vanniyar votes in the AIADMK and the DMK were cast in favour of Mr. Anbumani. “The voters have shown loyalty to the caste and not the parties,” says a ruling party leader in Dharmapuri district.
