The EC’s order recognising the faction jointly led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami and O. Panneerselvam as the AIADMK has come as no surprise.
Once the groups led by these two leaders reunited in September, it was a foregone conclusion that the unified party would win the party’s name and symbol, given the fact that the EC has been consistently applying the bare-bones test of numerical majority in the organisational and legislative wings of a political party to decide on such disputes.
The main point of interest was whether the EC would take note of the claim by T.T.V. Dhinakaran that he commanded considerable support among those who have not accepted the removal V.K. Sasikala, now serving a prison term in Bengaluru, from the party’s interim leadership. In the process, the dispute between became a contest between those who continued to favour the Sasikala-Dhinakaran family’s leadership and those who wanted to free the party from their grip.
The unified party has got a significant political and electoral boost by getting back its prized ‘two leaves’ symbol. However, the AIADMK now faces two significant challenges in re-establishing itself in the State’s political firmament.
The symbol clearly gives the AIADMK an edge over the Dhinakaran group, which will now have to decide whether it will contest polls independently with another name and symbol.
However, whether it will be enough to win a byelection is a moot question. The party suffers from the public perception that it is doing nothing more than kowtowing to the Centre. If the party loses the R.K. Nagar bypoll, the expected first electoral test since the demise of Jayalalithaa, the rebels will use it to claim that the party has lost its sheen under the present joint leadership.
Another factor that casts a shadow on the AIADMK’s victory in the symbol dispute is the question mark over the survival of the Palaniswami regime. It is now surviving only because of the disqualification of 18 dissident legislators owing loyalty to Mr. Dhinakaran. If the courts uphold their disqualification, the party will have to face the tough test of 18 byelections sooner or later. That it could lose all these seats as well as its majority in the House is a possibility.
On the other hand, if the courts annul the disqualification, they may not be averse to returning to the Assembly and sending the AIADMK government packing. The dispute over the party’s symbol and name may be over, but the larger battle for political legitimacy goes on.
