Since 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has moved from being at the helm of a strong alliance that dethroned the DMK from second position in several parliamentary constituencies to a party staring at isolation yet again.
Its current scenario looks precarious. On one side, there are attempts to bring together two almost irreconcilable parties — DMDK and PMK — to revive the now defunct NDA. At the same time, a section in the organisation hopes against all odds that they might get an invitation from the AIADMK — something observers feel is highly unlikely but not to be dismissed totally.
The slide has been rather rapid. Almost immediately after the Lok Sabha polls, the MDMK led by Vaiko quit the NDA, calling the Centre anti-Tamil. As months rolled by, the PMK and the DMDK too slowly dissociated themselves from the BJP.
Professor at the Asian College of Journalism, Sampath Kumar, says the BJP has little to offer in an Assembly election, given its weak base in Tamil Nadu. It got a mere 2.2 percent votes contesting alone in 2011, similar to 2006.
“The PMK and the DMDK are seasoned enough to know that BJP is more a dead weight than a strong ally in an Assembly election. The BJP may offer Vijayakant or Anbumani Ramadoss the Chief Ministerial candidature to woo them, but even together they will not make any major impact,” he says.
Mr. Sampath says Chief Minister Jayalalithaa is likely to keep the BJP away given the adverse effect the association will have on the crucial Muslim and Dalit vote bank.
“Many smaller parties in the State are opposed to the BJP. If she accommodates the BJP, she will be ruling out an electoral pact with several possible allies. This may prove costly in the face of anti-incumbency,” he says, adding that the AIADMK is currently on strong wicket since the DMK is still without a major partner.
Political commentator R. Mani says the “bloated egos” of PMK and DMDK leaderships will ensure the NDA of 2014 remains beyond redemption. “This is a crucial poll for the DMDK. They will choose a partner which would give them a handful of MLAs at least. The BJP cannot help them,” he contends, stating that shift by Mr. Vijayakant to the DMK camp at the eleventh hour cannot be ruled out.
The PMK, on the other hand, is focussed on proving its base to improve its bargaining in the future, he opines.
Tie-up with AIADMK
An AIADMK-BJP combination cannot be completely ruled out though the chances are slim. “The direction the disproportionate assets case against Ms. Jayalalithaa and the 2G case takes may have a profound impact and lead to complete realignments closer to the polls. The Bihar results will also have a say. But the BJP will certainly derive much mileage if the AIADMK accommodates it,” he says.
That said, BJP State president Tamilisai Soundararajan has maintained that the party will cobble together a strong alliance against the two principal Dravidian parties for the upcoming polls.
Probable scenarios
With AIADMK: Leadership of both parties seem to have a good rapport. But no sign of a pact yet. May help BJP win handful of seats and improve presence.
With DMDK and PMK: May not make a big impact. Even together, vote share will not help win too many seats.
BJP has already ruled out alliance with DMK. All parties of the People's Welfare Front and Tamil Manila Congress are openly anti-BJP.
