There is growing speculation over whether you will announce your bid for UN Secretary General soon.The last time I asked, you said it was too early, but now we are just six months away..
Kevin Rudd: Well my own view is that we are likely to have a UN Secretary General from East Europe this time, and that view hasn’t changed. (Laughs) last I looked, my name is not Rudd-ovich! If my view does change, you’d be the first to know.
Many have also said we are likely to have a woman as UNSG this time. UNDP chief and former New Zealand PM Helen Clark has put her bid in, and you congratulated her on it. What do you think of her chances?
As I said it is my firm belief that this time we will have a UNSG chief from East Europe. As for Helen, I think she will be a strong candidate if we cannot find agreement between the P-5 and the other member of the Security Council on an East European candidate. I’ve known Helen for a long time, shes a very capable person and strong PM of New Zealand as well as a strong internationalist.
Are you then ruling out you would stand? Some days ago Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop had suggested that you had sounded out several world leaders on your possible candidature.
Then that’s a question you should put to the Australian FM, as that is a statement she made, and I didn’t. I am enjoying what I am doing as President of the Asia Society Policy Institute. I am here to support India’s membership of APEC, and that’s one of the many things I am doing around the world.
I’d like to ask about APEC, but first about India’s aspirations for the Security Council this year. There had been some hopes that in this 70th year of the UN, there would some push for reform of the UNSC. How hopeful should India be?
Over the past year and a half I have been the Chairperson of the committee on multilateralism which is an independent review of the UN system and we have looked at it from one question: Is the UN a fit vehicle for the 21st century for sustainable development, peace and security, human rights etc. This has been an exhaustive exercise. What we sense in the UN is a complete impasse on the question of Security Council reform. It is at this stage difficult to see a way through. If you ask me to be honest about this, based on conversations with a whole number of member states…you are familiar with the mechanisms required to push through security council reform as well as the group of those who oppose the UNSC expansion called the uniting for consensus group ….put all that together and what I see, to be blunt, is at this stage there is no consensus for India to pursue.
US officials and others have suggested that the uniting for consensus group is in fact impairing India’s chances more because India has chosen to pursue its membership as part of the G-4 group, along with Germany, Brazil and Japan. Are you saying that is a mistake, should India have gone it alone?
Far be it from me to proffer public advice to the government of India. India has run its diplomacy far longer than Australia has existed, so I won’t try. There are a series of issues here, and rather than using elegant language to obfuscate, I think it would be very difficult to see where any consensus lies for India on this issue.
You mentioned the APEC summit, and why you think India should be a part of it. India is currently negotiating its military relationship with the US, Japan, Australia and others who are if you like on one side on the South China Sea. Does India have a role in this at all, given that India is not a Pacific country?
Well firstly about the Asia Pacific region…What I see is this array of impending territorial crises from the Korean peninsula to the east china sea to the south china sea and beyond, and the existing security structure in the region is heading to a zero sum game. So I ask: is it beyond our wisdom to simultaneously craft a forum of common security, for example in counter-disaster cooperation for the crises we have seen like Fukushima, Typhoons, Bush fires in Australia in the Phillipines etc. If our militaries can work on these together they become confidence building measures. Then we can get to comprehensive rules of the road for our navy and airforce. We only got the first functioning protocol for China and the US on air safety last year! We need discussions between China and other countries of the region on this, and then on transparency of military exercises etc.
And about India and APEC? There is some scepticism here since India has not been included in any of the trade blocks in the APEC region, including TPP…
So my response to your question, building on what I just said, is there is a big need to build an Asia-Pacific community that also includes Russia and the US with a mandate for security and economic cooperation. That would include India, would need to include India. Where I would like to see India is a full member of APEC by the end of the year. We have an APEC summit in November, which will be President Obama’s last, and I think there are some particular opportunities that lie in this APEC for India. If you look at the comments made by both Democrat and Republican candidates you can see we are headed to a period of uncertainty on trade blocs and trade liberalisation. So I would say strike while the iron is hot. Peru is in the chair, and the Colombians are keen to join APEC too, so if the membership question is opened, the case for India and for Burma (Myanmar) immediately become apparent. I think the factors are positive and we may see the planets aligned.
But India has tried in the past and failed with APEC. What makes you think it would be accepted?
I see support either active or passive from most members, in fact from 0 of 21 members. Now as for the US , if there are reservations there it is because of the fear India’s economic policies could slow down the agenda for APEC.
So is it realistic to expect India will overcome those reservations?
Well if the US has those reservations, this is the time for New Delhi and Washington to sort out those issues now. It is time for India to seize this opportunity this year.
So you would say, don’t hope for a UNSC seat, but an APEC membership is a real possibility?
The bottom line is we don’t know about the UN Security Council planning any moves, but APEC could come through, if New Delhi and Washington tackle it. It’s doable. Whats in it for India? It is a stepping stone for India if it chooses to wish to enter the TPP and these other trade blocs in the long term, FTAs etc. The common denominators for all of them including RCEP is they are all made up of APEC members. The work is mind-numbing, but also mind-numbingly essential.
