Elections for the four Rajya Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir, scheduled for February 7, could indicate the contours of the next government in the State, currently under Governor’s Rule.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the single largest party, and the BJP are sure of one seat each, with a contest for the other two, one of which could go to the National Conference (15) and the Congress (12), should these two parties combine forces.
As things stand, there is a strong possibility of the PDP (28) forming a government with the BJP (25), provided the latter makes some concessions to the former on the issues of Article 370, the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act and pending power projects. If that happens, the PDP-BJP combine will be assured of three of the four seats, and perhaps even the fourth if these parties mobilise the two-member People’s Conference of Sajjad Lone and the five Independents. In the last Rajya Sabha elections, the Congress and the National Conference had won two seats each.
According to the Election Commission, there will be three elections for the four seats. In the first election, there will be polling for the first seat, in the second for the second, and in the third for the two other seats. In the elections for the first two seats, a minimum of 44 votes will be required to win; in the third round, a minimum of 29.
The capacity of the NC and the Congress to snatch one seat hinges on the fate of Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad, who retires as a Rajya Sabha member on February 10. If he is able to persuade the NC — which has three more seats than the Congress — and rope in the Independents, he could get the fourth RS seat.
But that possibility is receding. The NC that helped the Congress twice in getting Mr. Azad elected to the Rajya Sabha, in 1996 and again in 2009, is now keen on securing the seat for itself. It has no member in the Lok Sabha now, and after its Rajya Sabha members retire next month, it will have no representation in Parliament unless it gets this seat. Within the Congress State unit, too, there are murmurs that if anyone is to be nominated, it should be someone from Ladakh, where the party won three of the four Assembly seats.
Clearly, then, if Mr. Azad fails to get a seat, the Congress, the largest Opposition party in the Rajya Sabha, will have to look for a new Leader of Opposition.
The other three Rajya Sabha members retiring next month are Saifuddin Soz of the Congress, and Ghulam Nabi Wani and Mohammad Shafi of the NC.
