Though the demand for most food commodities in India is set to grow by 2025, it would at a slower rate as compared to 2005-15, according to UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). A plausible factor is the rising food commodity prices whereby a small section of the population will find food unaffordable and thus decrease consumption.
FAO India representative Shyam Khadka told The Hindu that in India, the scope for an increase in production area was limited in the case of food grains including wheat, rice coarse cereals.
“We believe that both the area under food grains as well as their yield will go up, but the rate of growth will be rather muted in the coming 10 years as compared to 2005-15. In other words, at this point we do not foresee any major increase in production of food grains,” said Mr. Khadka. According to the FAO, with the increase in population and income levels, the demand for food commodities will certainly increase. However, this growth could slow down in the next 10 years due to multiple reasons and the rising commodity price is one of them.
Product substitution
“Two factors stand out in terms of a slower rate of growth: first, it is a natural corollary of a gradually slowing rate of population growth. Besides, an important factor is income: rising household income is likely to play an increasing role in product substitution for meeting caloric requirements. For instance, as we have projected, while consumption of most cereals will gradually slow down, the demand for vegetable oils and sugar will spike, as will for other commodities such as livestock products,” said Mr. Khadka.
Mr. Khadka said another factor is rising food prices whereby a small section of the population will find food unaffordable and thus decrease consumption. “While the first two are appropriate, the last one requires policy attention given the numbers of impoverished and hungry in our country,” he added.
