NEWS ANALYSIS The presidential polls have split not just the National Democratic Alliance but also the United Progressive Alliance and the Left
The presidential polls have split not just the National Democratic Alliance but also the United Progressive Alliance and the Left. While the results of this election may be a foregone conclusion, with the UPA’s Pranab Mukherjee already assured of over 60 per cent of the votes in the electoral college, the choices made by various parties including those which have broken ranks with their coalition — or grouping — hold out portents for 2014.
Indeed, the behaviour of the leaders of regional and smaller parties — all those other than the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party — would suggest that the more ambitious amongst them believe that neither of the two national parties will be in a position to lead the government that is to be formed after the next general elections. The presidential elections have provided many of the regional satraps with a soapbox to signal the politics they intend playing over the next two years.
Nitish’s balancing act
For instance, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar took on the BJP publicly to oppose the possibility of its naming Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate to keep alive his own prime ministerial prospects in the NDA and also send out a message to Muslims of his State: to the anti-Modi camp in the BJP, this was music to its ears. But when Mr. Kumar followed up his public diatribe against Mr. Modi with support to the UPA presidential candidate, the BJP was not amused — and the Bihar Chief Minister retreated, ordering party colleagues to tone down their rhetoric against the BJP, lest it upset the social combination over which he presides in Bihar, JD(U) sources told The Hindu. For, he has been doing a delicate balancing act, with his stint in power dependent not just on his own support base of non-Yadav OBCs and Mahadalits but also on the BJP’s upper caste vote.
The recent murder of the former Ranvir Sena boss Brahmeshwar Mukhia, a Bhumihar, has upset that equilibrium. Mr. Kumar’s attempt to hold the upper caste vote, while adding Muslims, in case he needs to break with the BJP, is also a gamble that could go awry.
In neighbouring Orissa, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, taking the lead in the campaign for Purno Sangma-as-President, has not just sent out a strong anti-Congress message but, as a senior BJD leader explained, also addressed the 23 per cent tribal vote at home, as well as in the northeast, especially Christians.
Indeed, the manner in which Mr. Patnaik has conducted himself in recent years is extremely interesting. He broke with the BJP after the Kandhamal riots, went on to win the next Assembly elections and established his secular credentials. Now by proposing the name of Mr. Sangma, who will contest against the UPA candidate, Mr. Patnaik underscores the fact that he stands firmly against the Congress, which is also the BJD’s chief rival in Orissa. BJD sources, stressing that the party was currently keeping equidistant from both the Congress and the BJP, said that had Mr. Sangma been the NDA’s candidate, the BJD would not have backed him. But as the former Lok Sabha Speaker is the candidate of the BJD and the AIADMK, the party has no objection to other parties, such as the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal, backing him.
The sources also said that while the BJD would not support either a Congress-led or BJP-led formation after 2014, it could be part of a non-UPA, non-NDA formation, supported by the BJP from outside — a replication of the presidential election situation, as it were.
For separate identity
Meanwhile, in West Bengal, the fact that the Trinamool Congress has broken ranks with the UPA to oppose Mr. Mukherjee’s candidature is all about State politics. For Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, the possibility of Mr. Mukherjee’s elevation to Rashtrapati Bhavan upsets her plans to edge the Congress out of the State’s political space altogether. Congress sources said if she were to support Mr. Mukherjee, it would send out a message that the Trinamool and the Congress were one happy family in the State. But Ms. Banerjee has always maintained that she left the Congress because Mr. Mukherjee’s “proximity” to the Left Front ensured its ruling the State for 34 years. For the Trinamool supremo, this is a battle to maintain the separate identity of her party. The party may continue in the UPA till 2014, Trinamool sources say, but the results of the general elections will determine the direction it takes after the polls.
Similarly, the compelling reason for the CPI(M), along with the Forward Bloc, to back the UPA candidate has more to do with politics than ideology. General secretary Prakash Karat has written in the party paper People’s Democracy that there is need to utilise the “fissures” in the ruling alliance, and has confirmed that the Congress-Trinamool “rift” played a role in the Polit Bureau’s decision to back Mr. Mukherjee.
Clearly, the presidential elections have led to a churning in the polity. While there may be no immediate change in the existing alignments, the choices made by the parties are a pointer to the future.
Keywords: Presidential polls, Pranab candidature, UPA allies, NDA allies, political regrouping, 2014 Lok Sabha polls
Thank you for a fascinating analysis of political intrigue. (A) Has
India become a mockery of a democratic republic - governed by an
unholy alliance of dynastic family businesses with support staff
(masquerading as political parties) with a mission to rule India in
perpetuity for private gain & power? (B) Are event-driven analyses of
abuses becoming counter-productive, by giving “an appearance of
vibrancy” to a rotten, dysfunctional system? (C) Is it now urgent, as
a first step, to have a debate on (1) what kind of democracy India
should have (based on present state of society and anticipated
progress over say next 30 years) (2) what changes need to be made to
India's democratic institutions, systems and processes (incl.
electoral reforms; functioning of LS and RS; checks and balances incl.
the judiciary, independent audit/investigative/monitoring agencies;
modifications to the Constitution, etc)? (D) Will muddling through
ruin India further and make the unavoidable tasks even harder?
The recent fracas over the president elections confirm how opportunistic
and greedy the regional parties are.Till few months back SP and congress
were at each others throats but have now become best buddies
overnight(no guessing on what might have brought them together).I fear
india will go back by at least a decade should the so called third front circus materialize in 2014.People should vote sensibly and bring BJP to
power with strong majority under Narendra Modi leadership
Unless the Congress handle the Presidential election diplomatially and tactfully,its repercussions will be serious in the 2014 lok Sabha polls.
If congress want President for it,it should give the vice presidentship to P.S.Sangma generously, so that both can be elected unopposed to their posts they aspire.Lest the vice presidentship should go to Opposition.Congress is a minority party and how it can be able to grab two important posts for it.NDA or UPA alliance partners should not allow this to go to Congress in the best interest of the Country.P.S.Sangma is defeat will cause avoidable ripples anf friction in the indian politics.Congress should manage to avert this
He is a Adivasi,christian, former congressman,from north eastern region, and good and able parliamentarian. He should be suitably accommodated.NDA support to him is late coming.IT seem that BJP and Congress keeping an hidden agenda in this election.Both are contributing to one more trouble for India due to Sangma issue.
Nitish Kumar has revealed that, at heart, he is a petty politician. Having taken advantage of the BJP in the 2005 and 2010 Assembly elections in Bihar, he has shown that his loyalty is fickle and that he cannot be trusted. He certainly does not have the qualities of a Prime Minister while the one he seeks to criticise does. In India secular has come to mean 'anti Hindu'. This is dangerous for the country and its polity. Mr. Kumar is merely trying to get onto this bandwagon.
The complete lack of inner party cohesion prevailing in the two big all India parties, namely the Congress and the BJP, is a pointer towards short lived opportunistic coalitions by the regional parties on paraochial considerations at the cost of nation building activities and repeat fall of governments and consequent mid term polls that the country can ill afford. As a principal opposition party, a lot remains to be done by the BJP, which never gets tired in pointing out the ills of the UPA government led by the Congress party, the principal action being the setting its house in order and projecting a single face, widely acceptable to the nation, as the next prime ministerial candidate who will develop India, by playing second fiddle to JD(U) which is getting restive by the day, for its own reasons!
Strongly disagree. After having boldly experimented with coalitions in the 90s, most Indians today know the value of stability. and the bane of electing disparate political group and stitching together unstable coalitions. With most Indians' eager for economic prosperity, the electoral theme would be stability - that translates to either BJP or Congress getting a strong majority of seats and forming governments on their own with little outside support. Or either of these parties forming governments with larger support of disparate regional parties.
O'God! Please save the remaining United India. If the mindset of these regional parties is to lead the Government at the All India level without one of the national players controlling them, it will not be too late for India to follow USSR. There will be a tug of war of BJD/SP/Trinamul/JDU/BSP/etc We have seen the experiment earlier and the country went back by a decade. More scams in the offing with a dependent head of a 'kichidi' government.
Whether the existing alliances in both NDA and UPA continue or not the havoc caused by corruptions during UPA2 would surely PLAY a strong part which will be detrimental to Congress and alliance partners in 2014 General elections. UPA2 has relinquished all chances for even 1/3 of its strength in future elections in all States.
So, politicians don't care about our people or nation first but just make something for themselves. Isn't it? The first thing, a major Constitution reform is urgently needed. The new constitution, if enacted, should abolish all regional political parties, which are epicentre of corruptions and inefficiency in India.
So in Indian politics ideology has no place.Garnering power somehow is the only guiding principle for political parties.Is this the land of Gandhi and Nehru?
These are all opportunistic games. Congress has played a game and it succeeded. Being intellectuals(they think) the other political parties are just became bakras in the grand food fest.
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