The Bharatiya Janata Party seems headed towards a landslide win in Uttar Pradesh, considered politically the most crucial State in the formation of the Government at the Centre, if the projections made in the exit polls are to be believed. The BJP is tipped to win between 45-50 seats out of the total 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
The counting of votes is to take place on May 16 when the real position would be known, but if the forecast happens to be true then clearly the BJP is likely to gain at the expense of the ruling Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj party and the Congress, which had won 23, 20 and 21 seats respectively in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections
A post-poll survey conducted by ABP-Neilsen based on a fixed sample size has forecast that BJP will win 46 seats, the Samajwadi Party 12, BSP 13, the Congress 8 and others 1. Though the survey has not named the lone winner, but is most likely to be either the Rashtriya Lok Dal in Baghpat, or Apna Dal in Mirzapur, or Quami Ekta Dal in Ghosi. The BJP had won 10 seats in 2009 Lok Sabha elections.According to the survey, the Congress may turn out to be the biggest loser in Uttar Pradesh. It won 21 seats in 2009, benefitting mainly from the split in the Muslim vote following the tie-up between Mulayam Singh and Kalyan Singh, as well as from Rahul Gandhi’s campaigning. However, this time round it is projected to end up by bagging 8 seats, as per the post-poll survey.
The RLD had won five seats and one seat was bagged by an Independent candidate (Kalyan Singh in Etah ).
Reacting to the possibility of the BJP posting a huge win, president of the UP unit of the party Laxmikant Bajpai said he was hopeful that the BSP and the Congress would end up losing more seats with these being added to the BJP’s overall tally. He did not specify the numbers. Mr. Bajpai rejected the possibility of a post-poll alliance with any regional party ( to be read as SP, BSP and the RLD). The BJP and the NDA will form the Government on its own, Mr. Bajpai added.
Even as the post-poll surveys have fired the imagination of the BJP leaders and workers, the exit polls have been rubbished by the Samajwadi Party.
It is hopeful that a third alternative would emerge at the Centre.