Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah called it a mess of a verdict. The single largest party, PDP, referred to it as a dampener. The BJP called it a victory. And the Congress put the onus of choosing a partner on the PDP.
The most debated Assembly elections in J&K have split the House down the middle, with a coalition government appearing to be the only possibility. But at the same time, the hung verdict has ensured that there shall be no easy alliance options this time round.
The PDP was hoping to form the government by weaning a few Independents to its side. But the final result has put them way short of a definite mandate.
While today’s result throws open multiple arithmetic possibilities of forming a government, the political complications are daunting. In one of the possible scenarios, PDP could come together with the BJP to form the government. But the trouble is, the two parties are separated by myriad differences. The PDP had sought a vote to keep communal forces at bay. Self-rule and Kashmiri identity formed the core of the party’s manifesto. One of BJP’s biggest slogans in this election was about ending the dynasty politics of the Abdullahs and the Muftis. While the BJP is all for complete integration of J&K with the Indian union and abrogation of Article 370, the PDP nurtures dreams of opening roads with Pakistan and allowing use of dual (Indian and Pakistani) currency in the State.
In a relatively easier combination, PDP could come together with its former coalition partner, the Congress, and they could, with the support of four Independents, form the government. But that coalition government would fail to give representation to Hindu-dominated Jammu region, making it a largely Kashmir-based Muslim government in a State that has been divided on communal lines.
With the NC and the BJP on one side, PDP-Congress will be confronted with almost half the House in the Opposition. The coalition government will face an unrelenting pressure and, with an unfriendly government at the Centre, cannot look forward to a liberal funding to rebuild the State.
“I would not want to head a government like that,” Omar Abdullah said. “If one of Mufti Sahib’s 45 MLAs falls sick, he will panic. It is a messy verdict, but I am glad that he is in a bigger mess than I am in.”
At the same time, the BJP and NC could join hands to form a government along with Sajad Lone (2 seats) and two more Independents. But the BJP and NC are ideologically poles apart as well. Autonomy is at the core of NC’s politics. A day before the results, Mr. Abdullah hit hard at the BJP for its communal politics and forced conversions. A BJP-NC coalition has the potential of damaging the political future of NC in Muslim-majority Kashmir.
