Pak. to have 200 nuclear warheads by 2020: US think tank 

"Pakistan has deployed or is developing 11 delivery systems for its nuclear warheads, including aircraft, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles."

November 27, 2014 06:25 pm | Updated September 06, 2016 04:05 pm IST - NEW DELHI:

Pakistan is likely to have enough fissile material to build over 200 nuclear warheads by 2020, according to the latest report by Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a US think tank.

 

The CFR special report “Strategic Stability in the Second Nuclear Age”, authored by Gregory Koblentz from George Mason University, states that “Pakistan, which has the fastest growing nuclear weapon program in the world, is believed to have enough fissile material to produce between 110 and 120 nuclear warheads. By 2020, Pakistan could have a fissile material stockpile sufficient to produce more than 200 nuclear weapons.”

 

According to the findings of the report, South Asia is the region "most at risk of a breakdown in strategic stability due to an explosive mixture of unresolved territorial disputes, cross-border terrorism, and growing nuclear arsenals."

 

The report details that “Pakistan has deployed or is developing eleven delivery systems for its nuclear warheads, including aircraft, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.”

 

Pakistan has not formally declared the conditions under which it would use nuclear weapons but has indicated that it seeks primarily to deter India from threatening its territorial integrity or the ability of its military to defend its territory.

 

While Pakistan is focused predominantly on the threat posed by India, it is reportedly also concerned by the potential for the United States to launch a military operation to seize or disarm Pakistani nuclear weapons, the report says.

 

This concern, the report continues, is based in part on reported contingency planning by the U.S. military to prevent Pakistani nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists.

 Second nuclear age

Describing the current period as a second nuclear age, the report says that the “security dilemma” of the Cold War, has given way to a “security trilemma” where actions taken by one state to protect itself from a second make a third feel insecure.

 

Due to this trilemma, the report says, though nuclear arsenals are shrinking in the rest of the world, Asia is witnessing a nuclear build up. Unlike the remaining Permanent Five (P5) countries, China is increasing and diversifying its nuclear arsenal.

 

The other major challenge as per the report is the emergence of non-nuclear military technologies like missile defences, anti-satellite weapons, long-range precision strike systems and cyber weapons which mitigate the strategic effects of nuclear weapons.

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