The Election Commission will hear the competing petitions of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and his father and Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav on just who gets to keep the party symbol, the “cycle,” or to see it frozen.
The BJP, which at first had dismissed the infighting in the Yadav clan as shadow boxing, is now concerned about its impact on the Assembly polls.
“ Wasiyat likhne ka haq sirf pita ko hota hai [only the father has the right to will away legacy/property],” BJP general secretary Bhupendra Yadav said at a briefing.
This reflects the largely unstated position of the party - a Mulayam in charge of the SP, with a hobbled Akhilesh looking on, was possibly the best case scenario for the BJP. “If you look at the fact how assiduously we have cultivated non-Yadav OBCs, even our State chief Keshav Prasad Maurya has been appointed keeping that equation in mind, you would see that we have been strategising for it to be a fight between the SP and the BJP,” said a senior office-bearer of the party.
Better home
The BJP was hoping to wean away the 13 per cent non-Yadav OBC voters in the State, marginal castes such as the Kevats, the Mauryas and the Shakyas who, in a grouping of OBCs dominated by the Yadavs, could find a better home in the BJP.
The party was also pushing up the communally polarising rhetoric, specifically with regard to the issue of “exodus of Hindus” that it alleged had taken place in Kairana, and which the National Human Rights Commission validated with its report and the State government and activists termed prejudiced. Muslims form 18 per cent of the vote and they largely vote for the SP.
These plans, however, started hobbling when the Yadav family feud went into a tailspin of expulsions and counter expulsions, till it has reached a stage where a Muslim-Dalit consolidation by the Bahujan Samaj Party is a real fear for the BJP.
“For us, the way out now is a three-cornered fight. We know that the Jatavs [Ms. Mayawati’s core base of dominant Dalit vote] are with the BSP. She is strong in western Uttar Pradesh, where the first round of elections are to be held. If the Muslim community, present in large numbers in that area, decides to go with her, toh hawa paschim se bah kar poorab main jaayegi [the wind will flow from the west to the east of the State], and it would be game over,” said a source.
The best case for the party, therefore, could be a divided Muslim vote between the two SPs, and the BSP, with the BJP gathering the rest. Much will also depend on whether the cycle comes through the EC hearing without a puncture.
