Even as the United Progressive Alliance government grappled with the altered situation following withdrawal of support by the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, expelled SP MP Jaya Prada indicated that she could fetch up on the side of the UPA — provided the law allows her to vote against the SP.
Ms. Jaya Prada told The Hindu on Monday that she intended to speak in favour of the Women's Reservation Bill in the Lok Sabha. “Nobody can stop the historic moment, and I want to be a part of it too,” she said. However, the MP is unsure if her status as an “unattached” member entitles her to take a line independent of the SP during voting. Under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution (Anti-Defection law), she continues to be a member of the SP.
Speaker to be consulted
The MP said she is planning to consult Speaker Meira Kumar on the dos and don'ts surrounding her peculiar status. If the Speaker gives the green signal on voting, she will follow up her fiery speech in support of the Bill with a vote for it. She will also likely support the government later, more crucially, during the passage of the Finance Bill.
If the Speaker's decision is a ‘no', it will be a blow for the MP who claims her heart was left “bleeding” each time she opposed the Bill for the sake of her party. “I cried in my heart whenever I had to speak against the Bill,” she said. It will equally be a blow for the government which is in a renewed scramble for numbers following withdrawal of support by the SP and the RJD.
The numbers at the moment are too close for comfort. If the Bahujan Samaj Party follows suit the RJD, the government would need every vote it can get. Officially the government's line is that it has the support of 276 MPs — four more than the halfway mark. But a back-of-the-envelope calculation as of Monday placed the UPA in the twilight zone of ‘maybe, may not be.' The UPA, including the Bodoland People's Front, started with 263 MPs and swelled to the 300-plus mark once the SP, the RJD, the BSP, the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Sikkim Democratic Front signed up.
Changed picture
Today the picture has changed. By-elections have added and subtracted party numbers, some old alliances have given way to new. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha has exited the UPA while the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha has joined it. The SP and the RJD have withdrawn their pleasure. Assuming the JD(S), the SDF and the BPF stay the course, the government's support appears in the region of 270. Independents and smaller parties such as the Assam United Democratic Front and the Nagaland People's Front could come on board, but many of them worry that the Women's Bill will rob them of their seats. So on to another round of number crunching.
