All of India is likely to receive a “normal monsoon”, except the east and northeast of the country, which are likely to witness “below normal” rainfall, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.
With this announcement, the IMD’s prediction of a “normal monsoon” remains unchanged in its second stage long-range forecast.
101% of LPA
The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 101% of its Long Period Average (LPA) during July, and 94% of the LPA during August — both with a model error of plus or minus 9%.
Anything between 90%-96% of the LPA is considered “below normal” while rainfall in the range of 96%-104% of the LPA is considered “normal.”
Also, rainfall is considered “deficient” if it ranges below 90% of the LPA, and “above normal” if it falls between 104%-110% cent of the LPA. Above 110% of the LPA is considered “excess” rainfall.
“Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be normal (96%-104% of LPA). Quantitatively, the monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 97% of the LPA, with a model error of plus or minus 4%,” the IMD said.
There is also a 43% probability of a normal monsoon, it added.
On the progress of the monsoon, the Met Department said that conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some parts of northeastern States in the next 48 hours. It added that conditions are also likely to become favourable for its advance into some more parts of southern peninsula around June 3.
“Rainfall activity is likely to increase over parts of Maharashtra and Goa from June 6,” the IMD said.
