The conditions are very likely to become favourable for the southwest monsoon to move into the South Andaman Sea in the next 72 hours, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday, easing fears that a severe cyclonic storm in the southwest Arabian Sea might delay its onset.
K. Sathi Devi, head of the National Weather Forecasting Centre, said the IMD stood by its forecast that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala on May 29.
No adverse weather
“Mekunu is likely to develop into a very severe cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours. It is very likely to move northwestward and cross south Oman and southeast Yemen. As the system is away from the Indian coast, no adverse weather is expected along and off the west coast of India and Lakshawdeep,” she said.
The IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into southeast Arabian Sea from May 26 as winds may strengthen in the region.
In its forecast for the monsoon, the IMD had said the country would receive normal rainfall: 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. “The country is likely to get 97% of the 89 cm it normally gets between June and September. Last year, it got 95%,” the forecast had said, ruling out “deficient rainfall.”
The forecast was part of the first stage report and the IMD said it would update the report in June, with separate forecasts for July and August, and for rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions.
The IMD uses a statistical model for its forecast. Another model, called the dynamical model, forecasts 99% rainfall. The IMD said it based its optimism on an assessment that an El Nino, associated with a weak monsoon, was unlikely.
The conditions are very likely to become favourable for the southwest monsoon to move into the South Andaman Sea in the next 72 hours, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday, easing fears that a severe cyclonic storm in the southwest Arabian Sea might delay its onset.
K. Sathi Devi, head of the National Weather Forecasting Centre, said that the Met Department stood by its forecast that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala on May 29.
