The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said the monsoon situation could become better by Friday.

IMD Director General Dr. L.S Rathore said he was hopeful of an improvement in the upper air cyclonic circulation over west central Bay of Bengal and the adjoining area.

The circulation, in the meantime, is expected to bring in the much needed pre-monsoon rains to north Andhra Pradesh and interior parts of Karnataka.

“Presently, there are only some signals. They are yet to be confirmed. We will have to wait for a day or two for things to become clear. But, we are hopeful that it would happen,” he said.

Monsoon activity has remained sluggish, with the northern limit of the system continuing to remain stationary with no indication of any forward movement.

Dr. Rathore, however, said, “We are still in the initial days of the four-month season. There is yet a long way to go. Things could improve in the coming days and weeks.''

The IMD has forecast that the monsoon would “mostly likely” be normal with a rainfall of about 99 per cent of the long period average [LPA], with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent.

However, it remains to be seen if the forecast comes true, as national and international forecast models have indicated a strong possibility of the El Nino phenomenon developing between August and September. Over the years, it has been seen that El Nino can adversely affect the monsoon flow over India.

In an interaction with The Hindu, Dr. Rathore recalled that the country had a good monsoon in 1997 despite El Nino.

The IMD has also forecast that maximum temperatures over Delhi and other parts of north-west India are likely to go up in the coming days. It saidmaximum temperatures over Delhi could gradually inch back to the 45 degree Celsius level by June 15, while the minimum temperature could remain at 31 degrees Celsius.

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