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Updated: June 12, 2012 16:13 IST

Monsoon may set in over Kerala by tomorrow

P. Sunderarajan
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The long wait for the onset of monsoon over Kerala could be finally getting over: the system could break out over the southern State by Wednesday.

A visibly relieved Director General of India Meteorology Department, L.S. Rathore, told a group of reporters that conditions were becoming favourable for the onset of the system over Kerala over the next 48 hours.

"Rains have begun over the Central and northern parts of the State today. The wind has started blowing in the right direction. The wind speed is gaining strength. It’s now blowing in a westerly direction at a speed of about 30 knots or 50 kmph. Everything is falling into place. We should be able to declare the onset by Wednesday", he said.

There had been concerns over the onset as the northern limit of the monsoon current had remained stationary for over a week from May 26 even as conditions were favourable for it to move up northwards. On Monday, it finally budged and by evening had covered some parts of south Arabian Sea, some more parts of Maldive & Comorin areas and southwest Bay of Bengal.

[Onset over Kerala is significant as it is the entry point for monsoon into the Indian mainland. June 1 is the normal date for the onset over the State].

The IMD has forecast that the monsoon this year "mostly likely" to be normal, with a rainfall of 99 per cent of the long period average [LPA], with a model error of plus or minus five per cent.

The forecast also noted that there was a 47 per cent probability of the rainfall to be between 96 percent and 104 per cent, 24 per cent probability for it to be between 90-96 per cent, 17 per cent probability for between 104 to 110 per cent, eight per cent probability for being below 90 per cent and four per cent probability for above 110 per cent of the LPA.

Dr. Rathore reiterated that though June 1 was the normal date for onset over Kerala, a delay of four to five days should not matter. "There is absolutely no one-to-one relationship between the date of the onset of the monsoon and the overall performance of the four month season".

Asked about reports that it was becoming more and more clear that the El Nino phenomenon could emerge in August-September, he said that though global models did show that there was a good possibility for the emergence of the phenomenon, it remains to be seen whether it would have an adverse impact on monsoon.

"There have been years when El Nino had an adverse impact, but there have also been years when it did not have. After all, it is not the only factor that affects the monsoon. There are so many other aspects that also play a role. In fact, the El Nino was the worst in 1997. But India had a good monsoon that year".

Keywords: monsoonKeralaIMD

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Can't explain how much I miss those rains in the God's own country!

from:  Dheeraj
Posted on: Jun 5, 2012 at 20:02 IST

It's great to have monsoon's arriaval this week.I just wanted to know
when is it going to reach our eastern region?

from:  satish
Posted on: Jun 5, 2012 at 17:44 IST

This year indication of earliest Mansoon came on june 1st week which was appeared on 2nd week of may last year.
The change of climate showing the decreasing pollution lavel.

from:  A.K.Singh
Posted on: Jun 5, 2012 at 16:42 IST

Any chance of Raining in Chennai?? God Please..

from:  Nouman Mohammed
Posted on: Jun 5, 2012 at 10:04 IST

Absolutely perfect system. Monsoon is the spirit of Kerala and India. Very much nostalgic the days of school opening and monsoon arrival.

from:  Geeth
Posted on: Jun 5, 2012 at 09:48 IST

Good news. Can't wait to smell the soil after the first rain. The
children will play in the rain. The plants will get enough water. The
farmers will be happy. The animal in the forests will quench their
thirst. The brown grass will turn green everywhere. A dry, tired India
will come alive again. A time to cleanse and start afresh. A season
for hope. A season to dream again. Reminds me of everything that is
good in the world. Wonderful! Wonderful!!

from:  Vibhuti Ramachandran
Posted on: Jun 5, 2012 at 08:14 IST

Let us hope that this monsoon bring happiness to farmers and environmentalists.

from:  Navaneeth
Posted on: Jun 5, 2012 at 00:17 IST

The IMD has to improve a lot. Inspite of their forecasts being
very vague, they yet make mistakes galore. They have many new
facilities but it appears that their basic knowledgeis poor. A
committee should be appointed to find out as to why their
forecasts are not unto the mark. I use forecasts made by
weather companies based in USA and their forecasts are more
The IMD has a long way to go !

from:  S N IYER
Posted on: Jun 4, 2012 at 21:17 IST
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