Scenario could change in coming days

After remaining active without any break since its onset over Kerala on May 29, the ongoing south west monsoon is likely to go into a lull phase in about a week.

Disclosing this, senior scientists at the India Meteorological Department said that as per current indications, the system would remain active till about June 24 and then enter into a weak phase.

But, before entering into the lull phase, the system was likely to cover almost the entire country barring some areas in the north-west region including Western part of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan and may last about three to four days.

Stressing that the forecast was as per present indications, the meteorologists said the scenario could change in the coming days. “The monsoon is a very dynamic process. One can at best predict what could happen with a high level of confidence only for about a week. Any prediction for a period beyond a week can only be in the form of a broad outlook and not a definitive forecast per se.''

Asked specifically about the possible date for the onset of the system over the national capital, the experts preferred not to make any prediction. “The normal date for onset over Delhi is June 29. We still have 11 days to go. It is too early to say anything. One has to wait for at least another four to five days for a clearer picture. However, since the present indications are that though there could be a weak phase from around June 25, it may not last long. As of now there seems to be a good possibility that the monsoon could keep its date with the city.”

The experts also emphasised that the cycle of strong and weak phases were a normal feature of the monsoon.

In the short term, the IMD forecast that the monsoon was likely to advance over some more parts of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh over the next two to three days. On Saturday evening, the northern limit of the system passed through Porbandar in Gujarat, Veraval and Nasik in Maharashtra, Adilabad in Andhra Pradesh, and Allahabad and Bahraich in Uttar Pradesh. Meanwhile, rainfall data collected by the IMD from different parts of the country showed that for the first 15 days of the season, the country had received a rainfall of three per cent more than the normal for the period.


IMD scales down its forecast for monsoon June 21, 2011