The India Meteorological Department [IMD] on Friday forecast that the monsoon was likely to remain active at least for the next two weeks. It could cover the entire peninsular region, as also advance over most parts of Central India and large parts of the east and the northeast by June 24.
An IMD release said the system could cover the remaining parts of the northeast over the next two days and then advance over the remaining parts of south peninsula and many parts of east India, besides some parts of central India during the later half of the next one week. Subsequently, between June 18 and 24, it could cover most parts of central India.
Meanwhile, at the end of the first 10 days of the four-month season, 61 per cent of the country's total geographical area has received normal or excess rainfall, the peninsular region benefiting the most.
The region comprising Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands has recorded 68 per cent more rainfall than its long period average (LPA).
At least as of now, the monsoon performance is in keeping with the long range forecast made by the IMD in April. On April 19, it predicted that the monsoon was “most likely” to be normal this year, at about 98 per cent of the LPA, with a model error of plus or minus five per cent.
In a note issued along with the forecast, the IMD said models showed there was a 53 per cent probability for rainfall to be between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA [normal], 10 per cent probability between 104 and 110 per cent of the LPA [above normal], and one per cent probability above 110 per cent of the LPA [excess].
On the downside, there was a 30 per cent probability for rainfall to be between 90 and 96 per cent of the LPA [below normal] and a six per cent probability below 90 per cent of the LPA [deficient].
The forecast, however, is not final. The IMD will update it in June after taking into account parameters for which data would be available only by then. This is an annual routine.