Delhi, neighbourhood could start getting rains from Saturday, says IMD

Monsoon is once again gathering momentum. It moved into some parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra on Tuesday and the India Meteorological Department forecast that it could advance further and cover some more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the next three days.

IMD spokesperson S.C. Bhan told The Hindu that Delhi and its neighbourhood could also start getting rains from Saturday. “Rains over Delhi are likely to be moderate and continue for about three days,” he said.

The new surge comes as a great relief as the overall monsoon at the all-India level continues to be grim: the cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the season remains deficient in over 78 per cent of the total geographical area of the country as of Tuesday evening. In 30 per cent of the country’s total area, the deficiency is more than 60 per cent.

Delhi and other parts of the northwest region continue to lead the table in terms of deficiencies.

The region as a whole has a deficiency of a whopping 71 per cent. Within the region, the Haryana-Delhi-Chandigarh belt and west Uttar Pradesh topped the list with a deficiency of 92 per cent, followed by Punjab (84 per cent), west Rajasthan (83 per cent), east Uttar Pradesh (78 per cent), Himachal Pradesh and east Rajasthan (76 per cent), Uttarakhand (62 per cent) and Jammu and Kashmir (42 per cent).

Drowning the deficits

The new momentum can help reduce these massive deficits. It, however, remains to be seen to what extent the deficits will get neutralised.

Central India and the south-peninsular region, though certainly not being in an envious position, are in a somewhat better situation. Central India has an overall deficit of 36 per cent, while the south-peninsular region has a deficit of 26 per cent.

Within Central India, rainfall is deficient by 77 per cent in the Gujarat region (barring the Saurashtra-Kutch area), 75 per cent in the Saurashtra-Kutch belt, 59 per cent in East Madhya Pradesh, 58 per cent in West Madhya Pradesh, 43 per cent in central Maharashtra, 41 per cent in Marathwada, 27 per cent in Vidarbha, 23 per cent in Chhattisgarh, 12 per cent in Orissa and nine per cent in Konkan-Goa.

Within the south-peninsular region, Tamil Nadu-Pondicherry continued to lead the table with a deficiency of 49 per cent, followed by Rayalaseema (47 per cent), south interior Karnataka (46 per cent), north interior Karnataka (43 per cent), Kerala (29 per cent), Telangana (18 per cent), coastal Andhra Pradesh (13 per cent), and coastal Karnataka (five per cent).

The east and north-east are the only regions in the entire country to have received bountiful rain so far. The region, which consists of Bihar, West Bengal and the north eastern States, has a deficiency of only 11 per cent, which is considered to be within the ‘normal’ range.

IMD sanguine

The IMD, however, exudes confidence that the monsoon across the country will be normal this year at 96 per cent of the long period average with a model error of plus or minus four per cent as forecast by the department, on the grounds that there were still three more months to go for the season.

“Monsoon never has a linear progression. There are active and weak phases. So far, it had been weak. It does not mean it will remain weak for ever.”

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