The India Meteorological Department on Friday forecast that the current South-West Monsoon season is likely to be more bountiful than expected and that it would be uniformly spread across the country.
Addressing journalists, IMD Director-General Ajit Tyagi said the latest assessments showed that the country could receive as much as 102 per cent of the long period average (LPA) as a whole and for the season in its entirety against the earlier forecast of 98 per cent.
He also released the forecast for the four homogenous regions: south peninsula, central India, the north-west and the north-east.
The south peninsula and the north-west regions are expected to get 102 per cent of their LPA, central India 99 per cent and the north-east 103 per cent.
While the revised all-India forecast is subject to an error margin of plus or minus four per cent, the regional forecast is subject to that of plus or minus eight per cent.
The IMD also released a forecast for the quantum of rainfall expected for the next two months. Precipitation during July is likely to be 98 per cent of the LPA for the month and that during August 101 per cent, with error margins of plus or minus nine per cent.
Dr. Tyagi said rainfall is likely to follow an increasing trend over the coming months as forecasts from a majority of monsoon prediction models across the world indicated that there was a high probability for the development of La Nina conditions.
La Nina
La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, develops when the waters gets to be cooler than normal for the region while El Nino arises when the waters over the equatorial pacific region becomes warmer than normal.
El Nino can be harmful for the Indian monsoon, while La Nina can favour it. But, this is not guaranteed as several other factors also influence the monsoon.
Dr. Tyagi said that given the trend, September, which marks the closing phase of the monsoon, could be the wettest month this year. It seems likely that a rainfall of 110 per cent to 115 per cent of the LPA for the month may be registered this year.
He, however, added that it was still too early to predict what could happen in September. A forecast on the September rains would be issued in July end.
Replying to a question, he said monsoon could set in over Delhi around June 30, plus or minus two to three days.
