After a brief rapid progress, the south-west monsoon has become weak again.
According to senior meteorologists at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system is likely to remain weak at least for the next four to five days. While there may be rains in the areas already covered by the system, they may not be copious.
IMD spokesperson B.P. Yadav The Hindu agreed that the system was weak and the overall rainfall deficiency over the country, which was gradually decreasing over the past several days, could increase again.
He, however, emphasised that there was no cause for alarm and there was still a long way to go for the season. “It is only the beginning [of the season]. Monsoon is a four-month season. We still have more than three months to go. Couple of good spells down the line could wipe out the deficiency”. (The all-India rainfall was deficient by 42 per cent on June 13. It has since come down to 26 per cent.)
Asked about the prospects of the onset of the system over Delhi and its neighbourhood, he said hopes for an early onset have now receded.
The normal date for onset over Delhi is June 29. It had seemed on Sunday the system could set in over Delhi a day or two before the normal date.
The northern limit of the season on Thursday passed through Veraval in Gujarat, Malegaon in Maharashtra, Betul and Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh, and Varanasi and Gorakhpur in east Uttar Pradesh. He said the IMD would issue an update on Friday of the forecast it had made in April for the country and for the season in its entirety. He, however, declined to comment on reports that the IMD was likely to revise its forecast downwards by a few per cent.